【禁闻】中共东盟交恶 天朝心态作祟

【新唐人2012年10月27日讯】“英国伦敦经济学院”教授文安立(Odd ArneWestad),10月18号在《彭博社》(Bloomberg)发表一篇探讨中国和东盟(ASEAN)关系的评论,他提到,自邓小平以来的30年,中国持续对东南亚国家所谓的“示好”。但是两年前,中国和东盟的关系急转直下。文安立认为,这是中国的 “天朝”心态作祟。中国学者指出,邓小平过去所说的韬光养晦,其实是等待时机。中共作为一个独裁政权,一旦国力强大,称霸的心态就避免不了。

“英国伦敦经济学院”教授文安立指出,直到两年前,中国和东盟各国,即使是越南,都是水乳交融。事情的转捩点发生在2010年,中国外交部长杨洁篪在河内举行的“东盟区域论坛(ASEAN RegionalForum)”上忍不住满腔怒火,向代表美国出席会议的国务卿希拉里.克林顿(HillaryClinton)大发雷霆。

导火线在于,与中国涉及“南海争议”的越南、马来西亚、菲律宾与汶莱等四国,联合美国、欧盟与印尼,同意采取“多边”协商机制,不像北京所想的所谓“一对一”个别协商方式,来解决争议问题。

文安立认为,中国人心中存在着“我们是大国,而你们是小国”的不当想法。从历史来看,中国自隋朝起,因国力强盛,建立以中国为宗主国,周边国家为藩属国的朝贡体系,当时中国是世界的政治、经济和文化中心,被冠以“天朝”的美名。文安定认为,对东亚事务,中国(共)仍保持旧有的“天朝”想法,将自己视为区域中最独特的,还将自己的观点和宣称视为区域之必要。

北京自由作家殷德义指出,中国人的自我心态一直以来很容易自我膨胀。中国和东盟这么多的国家,一直以来和平相处。但是为什么最近几年忽然频频跟周边国家发生冲突呢?

北京自由作家 殷德义:“以前他把这些争议搁置起来了。其实他搁置的目地只是等著有一天,等着自己有力量的时候,再去权衡再去博弈,现在他力量强大了。他就可以有资格去博弈了。因为他可以提供贷款,用金援外交各种各样的方式,用经济手段限制进出口,逼迫对方来就范。比如对日本。”

殷德义说,中共作为一个独裁政权,尤其容易把“民族主义”情绪煽动起来。东南亚国家现在感觉到中共存在的威胁。

殷德义:“作为一个共产主义国家,这种独裁体制下,不是一个民选的政府,这些人(中共当局)他就很容易去操纵国内的情绪,在这种情况下,他可以振臂一呼,应者千万、上亿,一切用这种限制新闻自由的情况下,下情不能上达的情况下,他很容易被自己的权力导致他产生幻觉。”

殷德义认为,周边国家必然会与中共交恶。如果现在不交恶,将来会越来越严重。

殷德义:“发展越来越好的话,如果再有一个好的国际环境,中共就意识不到自身的一些短板。你像马六甲海峡,中国80%的石油都要通过马六甲海峡进口。但是马六甲海峡路经的所有这些国家都有美军基地。如果他与这些国家交恶继续严重的话,中国的咽喉可以说会被掐住的。”

文安定建议,中国应以更谦冲的态度处理“南海争议”,除了与各国务实的协商海域的划分,更应建立具体的信任机制和预防冲突的措施,减少在这个地区的军事行为。如此,争议渐渐消弭,中国与东盟才能继续共荣发展。

采访编辑/秦雪 后制/君卓

Expert Attributes Tightening of China-ASEAN Relations to
CCP’s Extravagant Self-Consciousness

Odd Arne Westad, professor of London School of Economics
and Political Science, published an article about China-ASEAN relations on Bloomberg News on October 18th.
The article wrote that, although China had kept a friendly
attitude toward Southeast Asian countries for 30 years since the Deng Xiaoping era,
relations between China and ASEAN suddenly worsened
two years ago.
Odd Arne Westad attributed this change to
the CCP’s “consciousness of its growing power”.
Some Chinese scholars remarked that, the CCP kept a low profile
in the past in order to wait for better opportunities.
As a dictatorship, the CCP cannot help seeking hegemony
once its national power grows larger.

Professor of London School of Economics and Political Science
Odd Arne Westad recently made comments that,
until two years ago China had kept up good relations with
Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam.
However, the situation changed abruptly in 2010 at the
ASEAN Regional Forum,
where CCP’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi lost his temper
and flared up against U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The cause of Yang’s anger was that, Vietnam, Malaysia,
Philippines and Brunei which all have territorial disputes with China,
had worked out a multilateral negotiation mechanism under
the support of the United States, the European Union and Indonesia.
This deviated from the CCP’s preferred way of solving
dispute issues based on one-to-one negotiations.

Odd Arne Westad remarked that, the Chinese had an
improper view that saw the situation in terms of: “We are a large nation and you are only small ones”.
In history, China became the central state of the region
with dominating power and received tributes from affiliated countries since the Sui Dynasty.
At that time, China was the political, economical and cultural
center of the world, and was hence called the “Celestial Empire”.
Odd Arne Westad believes that the CCP still keeps a
self-awareness as the “Celestial Empire” in dealing with East Asian affairs.
Therefore it regards itself as the most important nation of
the region with the authority to spread its opinions around the neighborhood.

Beijing freelancer Yin Deyi remarked that, the Chinese have
a traditional trend of easily inflating their egos.
However, as China and Southeast Asian countries
have been at peace for a long time,
why did the outbreak of clashes suddenly become
more frequent in recent years?

(Yin Deyi, Beijing freelancer):”Previously all the disputed
issues were simply laid aside because the CCP wanted to reconsider the problems when its power became stronger.
Now the CCP’s power has grown a lot
so it can have more options to win the game.
For example, it can provide loans, play checkbook diplomacy,
or set restrictions for import and export to strike at its opponents.
Those measures have been taken against Japan.”

Yin Deyi said that the CCP regime could easily
arouse nationalistic emotions in China;
and that Southeast Asian countries had recently
felt a real threat from the CCP regime.

(Yin Deyi):”As a Communist nation China’s political regime
is autocratic rather than democratic.
So it is much easier for those people (CCP leaders)
to control the sentiments of it’s citizens.
In such an environment, millions, or even billions of people
follow whatever the leaders say.
With numerous restrictions against freedom of information,
It is difficult for the leaders to know conditions at lower levels of society.
Therefore they can easily have illusions with
the power they have at hand.”

Yin Deyi believes that, it is inevitable that neighboring
countries will come into conflict with the CCP regime.
The later those clashes come, the more serious
the conflict will be.

(Yin Deyi):”With the relatively smooth development
in economics,
the CCP won’t realize its problems if it further enjoys
a friendly international environment.
For example, 80% of China’s oil import has to pass
through the Strait of Malacca.
However, the United States has military bases
in all the countries near the strait.
If relations between China and those countries
continue to worsen,
the CCP will find its vital passage of transport
under the control of others.”

Odd Arne Westad has suggested that China should handle
disputes in the South China Sea in a less aggressive way.
It should negotiate with other countries to deal with concrete
matters such as sea area division.
In addition, trust mechanisms and preventative measures
against conflicts should be established to reduce the possibility of military action in the region.
If this becomes true, clashes will gradually disappear and
China can prosper together with Southeast Asian countries.

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