【新唐人2014年10月10日讯】朝鲜领导人金正恩已经一个多月没在公开场合露面，究竟是病了？还是被废黜了？目前还不得而知。但有关他的消息已成为了人们的“竞猜题”。韩联社9号消息说，联合国正考虑以反人类罪将金正恩推上国际法庭。
从9月3号起，朝鲜领导人金正恩已经连续一个多月没有公开露面，甚至缺席了10月7号朝鲜举行的金正日纪念大会。之前朝鲜的另一次重要会议，9月25号的第13届最高人民会议，作为最高领导人的金正恩也没有公开露面。
有关金正恩的最新消息，是韩国国防部长官韩民求透露的。“韩联社”7号引用他的话说：金正恩目前在平壤北部的某处。这一情报来自于韩国国防信息本部，是可信的消息。
不过，这仍然无法解释金正恩反常的不露面。
美国《洛杉矶时报》10月6号的报导说，最近一段时间有关金正恩被推翻下台的传言，这些传言背后一个共同的基本想法是，久未露面的金正恩如果不是病了，那他必定是死了，至少是他的政治生命已经终结。
美国《华盛顿时报》6号的报导也说，有消息说金正恩正在遭受痛风的折磨，还有媒体透露，他因为双脚的脚踝骨折而接受了手术。报导还援引朝鲜前反间谍官员张进成的话说，他认为“朝鲜劳动党”的组织指导部，实际上去年已经夺了金正恩的权，在金正恩的姑父张成泽被处决后，金正恩现在不过是组织指导部手中的傀儡。
台湾政治大学中国军事问题专家丁树范教授：“朝鲜是个极端不透明化的国家。所以到底金正恩发生了什么状况，然后各种谣言，那是蛮难去猜的一个东西。”
作为中共的“难兄难弟”，朝鲜领导人金正恩的消息也受到中国人的关注。这些天，在中国的社交媒体上，有关朝鲜政变传闻满天飞。相反，韩国的舆论则冷静得多，比较少政变之说。
曾经在中共中央党校《学习时报社》担任副编审工作的邓聿文，8号在《华尔街日报》发表文章指出，这背后蕴含的诉求和愿景确实值得去琢磨。
邓聿文分析，中国的社交媒体总是凭着一厢成愿去看待朝鲜局势，解读金正恩行踪。其中的深层根源，当然在于这个极权国家自身发展的不确定性，以及领导人行事风格让人难以琢磨。一般而言，极权政权命运很大程度上系于独裁者一人，如果独裁者身体有恙，或者发生其他意外，极权统治就很难维系下去。从这个角度看，人们往往通过独裁者的活动来判断政权稳定与否。
美国纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明：“如果发生政变的话呢，它不仅会是意味着金家王朝的灭亡，也应该说是共产党政权在朝鲜的灭亡。如果南北两国呢，通过它们的磋商，能够把门打开来，完成朝鲜逐渐的转型的话呢，真的可以让中共减少插手的机会。可以在亚洲的共产主义体系中，又打开一个新的缺口。”
而同样由金正恩引发的，另一个值得琢磨的话题，9号又再次出现。
韩联社9号报导，联合国8号非公开传阅了欧盟（EU）编制的“人权决议案草案”，内容包括将朝鲜最高领导人金正恩等，触犯反人类罪的朝鲜相关人员推上“国际刑事法院”（ICC）接受审判。
报导说，一名不愿透露姓名的联合国消息人士表示，朝鲜人权决议案到目前为止，虽然仅为草案，但这是首次将金正恩等朝鲜领导人推上国际法庭的内容包含在内。至于其他内容，他表示目前还不便透露。
联合国人权理事会朝鲜人权状况国际调查委员会（COl）在今年2月发表的朝鲜人权报告中指出，朝鲜进行的人权侵害属于反人类罪，朝鲜有组织地、广泛地犯下了反人类罪。
采访/陈汉 编辑/尚燕 剪辑/钟元
Korean Media Speculate about Kim Jong-un: May Be Sent To International Tribunal
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not appeared
in public for over a month.
Has he been sick? Or been deposed of?
It remains unknown.
However, the news regarding Kim has become
“a problem for the public to guess the solution."
Yonhap reported on Oct. 9 that the United Nations
is considering charging Kim Jong-un with crimes
against humanity on the international tribunal.
From Sept. 3, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has made
no public appearances for more than one month,
and was even absent from the General Assembly
to commemorate Kim Jong-il held in North Korea on Oct. 7.
As the supreme leader, Kim did not appear during another
previous important meeting– North Korea’s 13th Supreme
People’s Assembly on Sept. 25.
The latest news about Kim Jong-un has been disclosed
from the South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo.
Yonhap quoted him as saying on Oct. 7:
“Kim Jong-un currently stays somewhere
in the north of Pyongyang."
This information comes from the South Korean
Defense Information Division, and is a credible.
However, this still does not explain the unusual faceless
situation regarding Kim Jong-un.
Los Angeles Times reported on Oct. 6 that the most recent
information about Kim Jong-un were rumors
of his being overthrown.
A common basic idea behind these rumors is that
the disappearance of Kim Jong-un is due to either
illness or death, or at least the death of his political life.
United States-based Washington Times reported on Oct. 6
that, according to a news report, Kim Jong-un was suffering
from gout, and other media reported that he underwent
surgery because of feet and ankle fractures.
The report also quoted former North Korea
counterintelligence official Jang Jin-Sung.
He believes that the Organizing & Guiding Department
of the Worker Party of Korea (WPK), in fact, seized
power from Kim Jong-un last year after Kim Jong-un’s
uncle Jang Sung-taek was killed.
Kim Jong-un is now just a puppet in the hands
of the Organizing and Guiding Department.
Professor Ding Shufan is a Chinese military expert
from Taiwan Chengchi University.
He says, “North Korea is an extremely
non-transparent country.
So in the end what happened to Kim Jong-un is unknown,
and then all kinds of rumours spread.
It is very difficult to guess the answer of such a matter."
As one of the fellow sufferers of the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP), the news of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
has also attracted Chinese people’s attention.
Recently on Chinese social media the coup rumor regarding
the North Korean was widely spread.
In contrast, South Korea’s public opinion is much more calm
with less discussion about a coup.
Deng Yuwen once worked as Deputy Editor of Study Times
affiliated to the CCP Central Committee’s Party College.
He published an article on Oct. 8 in the Wall Street Journal
and noted that the aspirations and the vision
behind the incident are certainly worth pondering.
Deng Yuwen analysed that China’s social media always
uses wishful thinking to look at North Korea’s situation
and interpret Kim Jong-un’s whereabouts.
The deep roots, of course, lie in the uncertainties
of the development in such a totalitarian state,
as well as the elusive behavior of the leaders
of the country.
In general, the totalitarian regime is largely tied
to the fate of the dictator.
If the dictator has physical ailments or an accident occurs,
then it is difficult to maintain the totalitarian ruling.
From this perspective, people tend to judge the stability
of the regime by observing the activities of the dictator.
Xia Ming is a Political Science Professor from City University
of New York.
He says, “If there is a coup, then this will not only mean
the demise of the Kim’s dynasty, but also the demise
of the communist regime in North Korea.
If the North and South are able to open the gates to achieve
North Korea’s gradual transformation by their negotiation
and consultation, then this can really reduce the chance
of the CCP to intervene.
This is so that a new gap can be opened
in the Asian communist system."
Meanwhile, another topic which is worth pondering
was triggered by Kim Jong-un on Oct. 9 again.
Yonhap reported on the 9th the United Nations internally
circulated a “draft resolution to North Korean human rights"
prepared by the European Union (EU) on Oct. 8.
This draft charges North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
and other relevant officials who committed crimes
against humanity on the “International Criminal Court “(ICC).
According to the news report, an anonymous UN source said
that although a North Korean human rights resolution is only
a draft so far, this is the first time one covers charges against
Kim Jong-un and other North Korean leaders
on the international tribunal.
As for other included information of the draft,
he said it is still inconvenient to disclose.
The Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights
of North Korea of UN Human Rights Council (COI)
published North Korea human rights report
in February of this year.
This report pointed out that North Korea’s human rights
violations are crimes against humanity
and Korea has systematically and widely
committed crimes against humanity.
Interview/ChenHan Edit/ShangYan Post-Production/ZhongYuan
