【世事关心】利害,危险,代价和希望——就香港抗议活动专访叶望辉

【新唐人北京时间2019年08月06日讯】【世事关心】利害,危险,代价和希望——就香港抗议活动专访叶望辉

百万港人反“送中”的抗议活动已经扩大到其他领域,目前还没有停止的迹象,中共政权的对策何在?香港的形式攸关各方的利益,哪一方会做出最直接的反应?如果解放军介入对港人的镇压,是否会让蔡英文成为下一届中华民国总统?台湾问题攸关美国的哪些利益?在港人的抗议活动风起云涌之际,我采访了叶望辉,他在2001-2005年曾任前副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问,他是大陆和台湾问题专家。

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利害,危险,代价和希望——就香港抗议活动专访叶望辉

The Stakes, the Dangers, the Sacrifices and the Hopes: An Interview with Stephen Yates on Hong Kong’s Protest

 

Hong Kong’s million people protest against the Extradition Law has spilled over to broader areas and the Hong Kongers are not stopping. What are the Chinese Communist regime’s options  in Hong Kong?

百万港人反“送中”的抗议活动已经扩大到其它领域。目前还没有停止的迹象。中共政权的对策何在?

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“世界上的大多数人都无法理解中共的所作所为。”

Stephen Yates :“The Communist Party of China has done things that are inconceivable to most people in the wider world. ”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“您说我们不了解中共,只了解美国。那您看如果中共像‘六四’那样屠杀港人,美国会如何因应?”

Simone: “So you said we don’t know China but we know the US. What do you think the US would do if there was another Tian Anmen square in Hong kong, or maybe not to that degree, but the Chinese military get involved in the suppression of the Hong Kong people. ”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“这肯定会成为总统大选的议题。我认为国会的反应将非常激烈。我预测美国政府的反应不会比‘六四’时弱。”

Stephen Yates: “It would certainly color the presidential election conversation. So there would be, I think pretty loud voices in Congress. I would expect the United States government to do no less than it did at the time of Tiananmen. ”

 

香港的形势攸关各方的利益,哪一方会做出最直接的反应?

Hong Kong’s situation is relevant to many stakeholders, but who would react to it in the most direct way?

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“如果解放军介入对港人的镇压,是否会让蔡英文成为下一届中华民国总统?”

Simone:“ If the PLA get involved in Hong Kong, Will Cai Yingwen become the next president of the Republic of China?”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“我认为会对此产生很大影响。”

Stephen Yates: “I think it has a significant effect like that.”

 

台湾问题攸关美国的哪些利益?

And what is America’s real stake in Taiwan?

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):在港人的抗议活动风起云涌之际,我采访了叶望辉,他在2001-2005年曾任前副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问。他是大陆和台湾问题专家。我们讨论了香港的抗议活动对一些重大问题的可能影响。这些重大问题包括:台湾2020大选、美中(共)贸易战、广义上的美中(共)对抗,以及对中国大陆人民反共抗暴斗争的激励作用。我是萧茗,您正在收看《世事关心》。

Simone:Amidst the ongoing protest in Hong Kong, My interview with Stephen Yates, He was the Deputy National Security Adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney from 2001 to 2005, and an expert on China and Taiwan. Stephen and I discussed what the Hong Kong protest could do to Taiwan’s presidential election in 2020, to the U.S. China trade war and the broader U.S.- China confrontation, and finally to the inspiration of the mainland Chinese people in their own struggle. I am Simone Gao and you are watching Zooming In. 

  

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“好的,史蒂文,非常感谢你再次到这里。”

Simone: “Alright Steve, Thank you so much for coming here again. ”

 

叶望辉:“我很荣幸。”

Stephen Yates: “My Pleasure”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“好吧,谈谈香港,你知道香港的事态一直在升级。 现在他们计划在8月5日举行总罢工,昨天中共军队驻港部队的指挥官首次队抗议活动发表讲话说,抗议者的暴力是绝对不能容忍的。 几周前,就是这个指挥官告诉来访的高级美国官员,香港的解放军驻军不会介入处理香港抗议者。 你认为中共对于如何与香港人打交道的想法有所改变吗?”

Simone: “All right, talking about Hong Kong, You know the Situation in Hong Kong has been escalating. now they’re planning on a general strike on August 5th and yesterday the commander of the Chinese military garrison in Hong Kong addressed the protest for the first time saying, you know, the violence by the protesters is absolutely not tolerated. Well, the same commender a few weeks ago told the visiting high ranking US official that the PLA in Hong Kong would not get involved in the handling of the Hong Kong protesters. Do you think there’s a change in the CCP’s thinking of how they are going to deal with the people in Hong Kong?”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“嗯,当然我认为西方或外界正在把这些话作为一个警告,就是可能会发生类似天安门那样形式的驱散人群。 我不相信北京任何有理性的人认为这样的做法对中华人民共和国的国际声誉会有好处。近年来,全球对中国的印像已经变得更加负面,习近平个人的声誉已变得更加负面。 这对他们来说会是一个灾难性的举动。 如果这是它的方向,那么对香港人民来说是悲惨的。 但最近几周,我们看到解放军和北京方面还有其它成 选项。 他们雇了暴徒殴打和平的抗议者。他们有一些小流氓四处跑、打脸年轻的抗议者。互联网上广传的视频在某种程度上显示了年轻示威者巨大毅力和耐心,他们决然的不去对身体受到的虐待作出反应。 这是、而且一直是一个引人注目的形象。 对于抗议者来说,他们越是站在非暴力的一边,并且安全部队那边有某种进攻性的的反击,如果解放军再有任何公开的参与进来,我认为这会极大的、极大的增加国际上对港人愿望的同情,同情他们挺身而出捍卫一丝的自治权。世界在看着呢, 来自北京的咆哮并不奇怪,因为这是他们的想法,但是他们应该走这一步吗? 我认为这将是非常悲惨的,非常非常的惨,我认为这对中国不利。”

Stephen Yates:“Well, certainly I think the West generally or the outside world is taking those words as a warning that a Tiananmen like disbursement of the crowd could take place. I don’t believe that any rational person in Beijing could think that that would go well for the international reputation of the People’s Republic of China, and in terms of where the global impression of China in recent years has become more negative and the personal reputation of Xi Jinping has become more negative. That would just be a disastrous move on their part. It would be tragic for the people of Hong Kong if that’s the direction it was going. In recent weeks though, we’ve seen that the PLA and Beijing generally have other options. They have rented thugs to go in and beat peaceful protesters. They have sort of random bullies that will go around and punch young protesters in the face. And there’s videos that go around the internet showing in some ways a tremendous amount of fortitude and patience on the part of the young demonstrators where they decidedly do not respond to the physical abuse. And it’s, that’s been a compelling image. And for the protesters, the more that they stay on the side of nonviolence, and, and there’s some kind of aggressive pushback by security forces, and if there is any open involvement with PLA, it will I think greatly, greatly increase the international sympathy for the desire of the Hong Kong people or just standing up for holding onto a shred of autonomy. The world is watching. Uh, the bluster from Beijing is not surprising because that’s how they think, but should they take that step? I think it would be quite tragic and very, very, I think negative for China. ”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“是,人们一直猜测他们的真实意图是什么。 如果这只是一个威胁,或者他们真的打算做这样的事情。 如果发生这种情况,对各方、特别是台湾的影响会是什么呢?”

Simone Gao:“Right, People have been guessing what their real intention is. If this is just a threat or if they really are planning on doing something like that. And if that happens, what do you it will do to a number of parties, most importantly, Taiwan?”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“对,肯定会对台湾人的一些看法产生冲击,但最近这些事件已经对台湾对共产党的看法、‘与中国接触’的看法产生了巨大的影响。而且正在影响明年1月举行的台湾总统和立法会选举的政治态势。但如果他们要来一个类似天安门的事件,那会产生一个巨大的、大得多的战略冲击。我们需要记住,你回到这些年来,中国经济基本停滞不前,甚至可能处于衰退状态,因为他们的统计数据不真实。因此,中国经济在萎缩而国际制裁在加码。中国的经济已经受到来自美国的关税和其它的压力的钳制,但不仅仅是美国。你要加上国际上对其声誉的谴责,以及不可避免随之而来的制裁,加上失去香港作为国际金融中心的经济价值的损失。我认为,随着商业的逃离会对中国造成灾难性打击。 记得天安门事件发生后,香港当时还是一个殖民地,对于留在香港的人来说,仍然有很多信心。 如果在香港本土发生这样的事件,我们就进入了一个陌生的危险地带。 然后它也成为‘一囯两制’的终结,就只有一国了。 因此向邓小平向台湾建议的‘一囯两制’,如果现在还没有死,那到时也死了。”

Stephen Yates:“Right, well certainly would be…would have an impact on perceptions in Taiwan, but these recent events have already had a dramatic influence on Taiwan’s perceptions of the Communist Party, Taiwan’s perceptions of engagement with China generally. And it’s influencing the politics of the presidential and legislative races in Taiwan, that will come to a head in January of next year, but it would also have a much, much bigger strategic impact if they were to have a Tiananmen like event that, you know, we need to remember, you go back all those years, China’s economy ground to a near stop and probably was in very negative territory because their statistics are not honest. And so China’s economy contracted international sanctions piled up. China’s economy is already under strain with tariffs and other pressures from the United States, but not just the United States. You add on top it international, condemnation on reputation, and the sanctions that inevitably would follow from something like that, plus the loss of the financial value of Hong Kong as an international financial hub. The fleeing of business would, I think have just a catastrophic impact, on China. Remember post Tiananmen, Hong Kong was still a colony and there was still a lot of confidence of, in terms of people staying in Hong Kong. and if there was actually an event like this in Hong Kong itself, we’re in uncharted waters. And then it also becomes the end of one country, two systems. It’s just one country. And so the offer to Taiwan of one country, two systems that Deng Xiaoping made, if it isn’t already dead, it would be dead then.”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“好的。 你觉得解放军只要参与香港(事务),蔡英文就会成为中华民国的下一任总统吗?”

Simone Gao:“Okay. Would you say PLA get only involved in Hong Kong, Tsai Yingwen would become the next president of the Republic of China?”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“我认为会有这样显著的影响,不一定是因为蔡总统个人,她自己正在为连任竞选。 但如果你看当共产党做了坏事,成为国际新闻,成为在台湾的新闻的时候,它往往会增加对台湾内部那些希望和美国及其盟友,特别是那些关注其与中囯纠缠的盟友,成为最好朋友的人们的支持,同时大大削弱台湾内部主导要寻求与中共达成和平协议的一方。 因此,当这些事情发生时,它肯定会产生对台湾党派政治的冲击。 我们有习近平新年夜发表的讲话,有强烈的指向性,影响了台湾的初选。从某些方面说,蔡总统如果能够对此事做出回应,这会巩固她的地位。在香港发生的那些戏剧性的大规模群众示威活动,迫使台湾所有的主要提名者都拒绝把‘一国两制’的模式用到台湾。蔡总统对此的反应是,一个国家只能有一位总统,这是她固有的优势。而且现今一个普遍的认知,中国正在一个错误的方向上行进。然后,你把它放在一个注重政治机构完整性、媒体完整性、商业供应链完整性的国际背景下,你再给它加上极大的政治风险和安全风险。那么,我想这只会极大地加强那些想要自治的人,那些不想和中国保持长期政治合作关系的人和想在攻击性冲击的受到保护的人。”

Stephen Yates:“I think it has a significant effect like that, not necessarily because of President Tsai as a person, she’s running for reelection in her own right. but if you look at when bad things are done by the Communist Party, and make international news make the news in Taiwan, it tends to increase support for those broadly in Taiwan who want to make best friends with the United States and its allies who are concerned about entanglements with China, and it greatly weakens the dominant party in Taiwan that has sought to make a peace agreement with the CCP. So it, it definitely has a, partisan political impact in Taiwan when these things are done. We had the New Year’s Eve address, that was delivered by Xi Jinping that that was somewhat blustery and it, it colored the, the competition for the primaries, in Taiwan. And in some ways it bolstered President Tsai’s standing when she was able to respond to it. These dramatic demonstrations in Hong Kong with such a high proportion of the population demonstrating it’s forced all of the major nominees in Taiwan to disavow one country, two systems as a model for Taiwan. And President Tsai’s reaction to it, there’s only one president at a time, gives her a natural advantage. But it also is resting upon a broad popular perception that China is today going in the wrong direction. And you put that in the context of things international, where there are concerns about the integrity of political institutions, the integrity of media, the integrity of business supply chains and you add on top of it profound political risk and security risk. Then I think that it just dramatically bolsters those that want self government, that want to have no long-term relationship politically with China and want to be protected against these kinds of aggressive moves.”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“在这整个局势中有一个不可控的因素。我们知道,中共给台湾设置了一个底线,一条红线,那就是北京是不容忍台湾独立的。现在的情况是,如果中共部队插手香港,如果这激怒了台湾,台湾岛内独立的声音突然变强。你觉得这会引发或某种程度上迫使中共对台湾采取极端行为?”

Simone Gao:“There is an uncontrollable element in this whole situation. You know, the CCP has set a bottom line, a red line for Taiwan. That Is Beijing is not going to tolerate Taiwan’s independence. Now the thing is, if PLA gets involoved in Hong Kong and if that provoked Taiwan and all the sudden the independence voice in Taiwan gets bigger. Do you think that could trigger and in a sense force the CCP to do something radical to Taiwan?”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“嗯,没有办法消除这些想法和顾虑。我没有证据说这是中共的阴谋,在某种程度上是为了对此制定计划,或对于此相关的行动发出警告。但是《反分裂国家法》是这样写的,如果事情做得太过火了,或者发生了动乱,或者发生了什么,在某些情况下,他们保留了干涉台湾的权利。北京如今对待香港的态度似乎在反分裂国家法的逻辑中有暗示了。此外,对北京来说,更大的不确定性是是否会发动对香港人民采取极端行动,而我们也还不知道这是否会发生。我们在观望和等待,不确定的发展伴随着这些持续的示威。也许他们不会停止。但是如果有那样的极端行动,现实的问题是,在中国的其它地方会产生什么效应?全世界都记得1989年的天安门集会。但是他们不那么清楚的是,当时的中国群众有组织的反腐败、反通货膨胀和其它社会问题不只有北京。因此,一个更为深刻的问题是,中国人民是否会开始意识到中国梦的许诺不是来自中共、也不是来自习近平?所以,是否有,北京是否需要更加专注于来自中国国内的压力,而不是努力压制政治和台湾。如果他们有理智,他们会从历史看到,台湾人民是不可能被外部势力统治的。日本人将台湾作为殖民地长达五十年之久,而台湾凭借自我认同存活下来。国民党来了制定了戒严令,实施了严密的控制,但台湾依旧凭借自我认同走过来了。中共试图想吞并这只豪猪?我想对中共并不会是一顿美餐。将引起混乱,可能会付出惨重。但是最终台湾人民经历各种外敌的干扰和侵占,将证明他们非凡的韧性。所以我希望,中南海能够在一定程度上保持理性,中国人民将以某种形式或方式把他们的意志强加给政府。我们不必极端考虑这些‘如果’。”

Stephen Yates:“Yeah. Well, there’s no way to eliminate these kinds of thoughts or calculations. I have no evidence that this is a plot by the CCP, to sort of chart this course or warn about actions along these lines. But the anti secession law was written in a way that sort of said if a things went too far or if there was unrest or what have you, that there were certain conditions under which that they reserve the right to intervene in Taiwan. Well, this seems to be somewhat of an anti secession law logic implied in what Beijing’s messaging is to Hong Kong right now. Also, the bigger uncertainty though for Beijing is if there is this dramatic move against the people of Hong Kong and we don’t know whether that’s going to happen yet, we’re kind of watching and waiting and uncertain development with these sustained, demonstrations and maybe they don’t stop. But if there is that kind of move, the real question is, will there be consequences in the rest of China? The whole world kind of remembers in 1989 the filling of Tiananmen Square, but what they don’t have the same impression of is that Beijing was only one of many geographies where people were rising up in an organized way to demonstrate against corruption and inflation and other kinds of problems in China. And so it’s really a broader question of will the people of China begin to see that the promise of a China dream is not coming from the CCP, it’s not coming from Xi Jinping. And it would, will there be a…will there be pressure internally that Beijing has to be more concerned about than trying to hold down politics and Taiwan, if they’re rational, they’ll know from history that the people of Taiwan are ungovernable by outside powers. The Japanese had Taiwan as a colony for 50 years and the people of Taiwan, emerged with their own identity. The KMT came and established martial law, imposed heavy controls and the people of Taiwan, emerged with their own identity and the CCP wants to try to swallow this porcupine? I think it will not be a pleasant meal for them to try. It would be disruptive. It would be tragic. But ultimately the people of Taiwan, have proven remarkably durable through all kinds of outside influences and occupations. So my hope is that some degree of rationality will prevail in Zhongnanhai and that the people of China will impose their will on their government in some form or fashion. We don’t have to get to these extreme considerations of ‘what ifs’.”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“人们普遍认为,对于中国政府来说,这一代价太高,难以实现。但你认为他们不排除真的这么做的可能。你不认为这纯粹只是一个威胁。”

Simone Gao:“The general perception is that the price is too high for Beijing to go that direction. But for you, you do not rule out the possibility of them actually doing it. You don’t think this is a pure threat only.”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“嗯,我的意思是,中共所做的事情是世界上大多数人无法想象的。在大跃进期间,中国实施激进的经济政策,导致数以百万计的人民饿死。在文化大革命中,为了政治目的,它谋杀了数以百万计的中国人,它摧毁了中国悠久的文化和传统。在中国,家庭团体从根本上被摧毁,宗教团体也被彻底摧毁。语言的使用已经发生了根本性的变化。他们反对孔子,然后现在又离奇地使用孔子学院作为在国际上做宣传的重要手段。所以中共对中国、对中国人民所做的事情,大多数人、世界上的大多数人都会认为它是丧失理性的。我们甚至没有提到天安门事件,所以如果他们有妄想症或者担心失去权力,我不能排除他们会做出令人发指的行为,或者我认为的非理性的行为,他们是不愿意容忍的。但是,我想相信,最终赋予理性的、充满希望的、有责任感的中国人会意识到,共产党员仅是一个极小的人口比例,他们并不是全部中国人。因此,中国人民有实现他们意愿的可能。当然,就我个人而言,我希望中国人民能享有象世界其它地方人那样的自由。但如果没有这些,我希望他们至少能迫使自己的政府关注他们,迫使政府去照顾他们,而不是去干预这些本应由自治政府管辖的范围。我的意思是,毕竟香港应该以高度自治的方式治理香港,这是写入《基本法》的联合声明所承诺的。那么,北京为什么要在这个时候找麻烦呢? 他们本可以让香港保持高度自治,自行处理内地的问题。”

Stephen Yates:“Well, I mean, the Communist Party of China has done things that are inconceivable to most people in the wider world. It literally starved millions of its people imposing radical economic policies during the great leap forward. It literally murdered multiple millions of its own citizens for political purposes in the cultural revolution. And it destroyed several elements of longtime Chinese culture and tradition. The institution of the family has been fundamentally destroyed inside of China. The institutions of religion have been fundamentally destroyed inside of China. The very use of language has been altered in fundamental ways. They fought against Confucius and then now oddly use Confucius institutes as points of propaganda internationally. So there’s things that the CCP has done to China, to the Chinese people that most other people, most people around the world would consider to be wildly irrational. We didn’t even mention Tiananmen in that list. And so I can’t rule out any kind of outrageous or what I would consider to be irrational action by them if there’s a sense of paranoia or a potential loss of power, that they are not willing to abide. But, I want to believe in the ultimate rationality and hopefully, the responsibility of the Chinese people themselves to recognize that this relatively small percentage of their population that is in the communist party is not all Chinese people. And that maybe they can impose their will. And of course, from my point of view, I’d like the people of China to enjoy the freedom that the rest of the world does. But in the absence of that, I hope that they can at least impose a degree of caution on their own government and force their government to take care of them instead of intervening in these other areas that really are supposed to be left to self-government. I mean, after all Hong Kong is supposed to be governing Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy, that was the promise of the joint declaration that was written into the Basic Law. And so why is Beijing bothering at this time? They could have left Hong Kong to its high degree of autonomy and taken care of problems inside the mainland itself.”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“是的,你刚刚提到的这个问题,确实,中共政府对香港、新疆等地做的这些都是没必要的。但是他们为什么要做呢?”

Simone Gao:“So yeah, that’s the question you just talked about, you know, there was actually no need to do what they did in Hong Kong and Xinjiang and things like that. But then why did they do that?”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“我的意思是,我只能推测。而且,我们不了解习近平或其他中国最高领导人的想法。他们是一个秘密政府,实际上并不对人民负责。他们秘密地进行审议。所以,除了中国极少数未经选举、不负责任的领导人,世界上没有其他人知道他们为什么要这么做。我们真的不知道他们(中共)到底是如何将事情搞砸到这种地步,我认为事情发展到这个地步是非常不理性的。除非他们(中共高层)知道自己对于中国内部问题的认知程度远超一般社会大众,或许中共对经济、政治、警察或其他更广泛等机构的掌控程度远弱于他们目前为止所愿意让我们知道的。就是说,他们这些不理性的行为是出自于恐惧、焦虑及对权力即将消失的认知,因为这一切根本说不通。这些事情(香港追求民主)看起来是在有基础且渐进的情况下发展的,并且这将使得中国政体朝更宽广的方向上迈进。谁知道中共为何要破坏香港政体原有健康的发展进程?”

Stephen Yates:“Well, I mean, I, I can only speculate. And, we do not have the blessing or the curse of knowing the mind of Xi Jinping or the other top leaders of China. They are a secret government that is not actually accountable to its people. They conduct their deliberations in secret. And so no, one in the world knows why they’re doing what they’re doing, except for the very small number of unelected, unaccountable leaders in China. We don’t really get to know why they’ve gone down this path that I think is irrational, unless the reality to them is they know more about what’s happening inside China and maybe the Communist Party’s grip in controlling institutions of the economy, politics or broader government is weaker than they’ve let us know. And so it’s out of fear, anxiety, perception of loss, that they’re acting out in more extreme ways because it just doesn’t make sense. These things seem to have generally on a gradual basis, been moving broadly in their direction. So why rock the boat?”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“你刚谈到了我们不知道中共到底在做些什么,但我们知道美国在做些什么。为什么你会认为若天安门事件在香港重演,或在香港若发生类似当年天安门的事件,比如中国解放军参与了对香港人民的镇压,美国就一定会采取某些行动呢?”

Simone Gao:“So you said we don’t know China but we know the US. What do you think the US would do if there was another Tian Anmen square in Hong Kong, or maybe not to that degree, but the Chinese military get involved in the suppression of the Hong Kong people.”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“我想若事情真发生了(解放军镇压香港人民),将会震惊非常多的美国人。在香港已有大量的游行活动,但我不知这些香港的消息是否已成为大多数美国家庭饭桌上的话题。这个议题必会丰富人们讨论总统大选时的谈话内容。所以我认为这将会在国会中引起非常大的回响。每位参与总统大选的候选人将会被迫必须针对这些问题说些什么。现在在民主党中有非常多的人角逐欲成为党内提名人。我认为他们将争先恐后地唤起近年来民主党已渐渐忽视的中国人权问题。在六四天安门事件后就进入国会的现任众议院发言人Nancy Pelosi,是当时批评中共人权声浪之中的发声者之一,他常说中国国内正在发生的事情是非常严峻的。某些方面来说,中共在国际上的名声已大不如前。人们对于过去几年中国政体上的发展方向感到越来越悲观。有人说习近平透过一种新的文革已成为进化版的毛泽东,这种文革的氛围散布在中国境内。美国一般民众的想法以及他们口头表达出的意见因为习近平的关系,如今已经很不一样了。当今民众的观感以及国际对于中国当今状态的反应相较于过去会有相当大的不同,在某种意义上,人们会更快的诉诸于制裁中共。由于当年布希政府敲响了天安门事件的警钟,美国与北京当局保持良好关系这种令人失望的举动将会减少。现在也不存在类似1989年的冷战背景,当年基辛格还说我们需要北京的力量来平衡冷战中与莫斯哥当局的军备竞赛。现今所有的情况都与当年有着本质上的不同。”

Stephen Yates:“Well, I think those images would be broadly shocking to a lot of Americans. You know, I think there’s been broad coverage of the demonstrations in Hong Kong, but I don’t know that it’s become kind of a kitchen table conversation among a large majority of American households. It would certainly color the presidential election conversation. So there would be, I think pretty loud voices in Congress. Every candidate running would be pressed to speak. There are now many, many candidates running for the Democrat nomination. My guess is they would have to compete to revive some position on human rights in China, that has somewhat waned in the Democratic Party in recent years. Nancy Pelosi, who’s the speaker of the house, entered Congress in the times, soon after Tiananmen square and was a vocal proponent of human rights in China at a critic of the Communist Party and a speaker she has from time to time, said things that were critical of what’s happening inside of China as speaker. I would expect her to be a leader in denouncing actions that would be taken if that were to be the direction things went in Hong Kong, I would expect the United States government to do no less than it did at the time of Tiananmen. But who knows, we’re in different times. Well, in some ways the global reputation of China has been going down. Over the last year, people have grown increasingly pessimistic about the direction China is going, politically,. There’s talk of Xi Jinping being Mao Zedong 2.0 in a new form of Cultural Revolution, spreading inside China. So the, the mood music as someone might say colloquially in the United States has been very, very different leading to this point. So perceptions and international response could be quite different in the sense that people might be more quick to resort to sanctions. There might be less of a desperate move to preserve relations with Beijing as there was in the wake of Tiananmen by the Bush administration at the time. And also we don’t have the Cold War backdrop that existed at the time of 1989 where there was still a Kissinger draw that we needed Beijing as a balance against Moscow in the Cold War competition. All of that context is just fundamentally different today.”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“参议员Marco Rubio在7月13日重申了香港人权及民主活动的问题。在这其中,他要求美国国务院每年都要评估香港的经济及政治情况,依此来判断香港是否具有足够的自主程度能让美国继续给予其特别的待遇。你认为这条法案有可能被通过吗?你认为美国在这方面对于香港的情况有什么解决方法?

Simone Gao:“On June 13th Senator Marco Rubio re-introduced the Hong Kong human rights and Democracy Act 2019. In it, among other things, it requires the State Department to have an annual review of Hong Kong’s economic and political situation to decide whether it’s still autonomous enough to receive the special treatment from the US. What do you think this bill will be passed and what is the US approach with regard to the situation in Hong Kong?”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“我很感激参议员Rubio正在推动这个想法。我想对于这些事情,我们这些所谓的专家都很纠结到底利用什么方式去帮助香港才是正确的,什么方式对香港、对香港民众是有帮助的。同时,若北京当局或其支持者欲破坏香港人民的自主,我们也将让他们付出代价。从某种程度上来说,一国一制真的打着共产党的痛处吗?若香港真的渐渐走向一国一制,美国很自然的会开始认为或许不该再将香港视为独特的关税区。或许我们根本不应该再给被北京控制的香港政府特权。如果香港与北京同属一个政府管辖,那他(香港)就该被当作中国领土的一部分来对待,这才合理。但与此同时这(香港的地位)也存在着合理的争论,但争论这些对香港人民有帮助吗?我们如果有动机要去维护1984年签署的联合声明,如果我们尝试去督促北京履行当初在基本法中所承诺的内容,如果我们的最终目标是中国当初承诺予香港人民的普选制度、高度自主……这种开倒车、承诺香港的特殊地位究竟对香港是有利还是有弊? 并且这不是个能够简单回答的问题,因为北京必会为其举动付出一些代价,且若在国际上香港自主不被当作一回事,香港人民与香港政府必须意识到北京若采取动作后所产生的风险。但与此同时,我想对大部分美国人来说,我们关注及在乎的是根据香港人民立法上的愿望作对的事。这对我们来说不是一个能够简单回答的问题。

Stephen Yates:“I appreciate Senator Rubio pushing the idea. I think that all of us that are supposed to be expert on these things struggle with what are the right tools to use to be helpful and supportive of the Hong Kong people, but also to try to impose costs on Beijing or Beijing supporters if they undermine what should be the autonomy of the people of Hong Kong. In some ways, does it really hurt the communist party for there to be one country, one system? And if it is increasingly one country, one system, it’s natural that the United States should think about, well, maybe we shouldn’t treat Hong Kong as a separate customs territory. Maybe we shouldn’t give privileges to a Beijing controlled Hong Kong government. If it really is one government, it should be treated like the rest of China. That is rational. But at the same time, there’s a reasonable debate to have but does that help the people of Hong Kong? Ultimately if we are motivated to try to uphold the international agreement, that is the 1984 Joint Declaration, If we’re meant to try to hold Beijing accountable for the promises made in the Basic Law, if our ultimate objective is what was written into those promises of universal suffrage for the people of Hong Kong, for them to have that high degree of autonomy…Does kind of pulling back, on recognition of special status help the people of Hong Kong or hurt the people of Hong Kong. And it’s not an easy question to answer because there does need to be a cost to Beijing for its actions and the people and the government of Hong Kong needs to recognize the risks that it will be playing with if there isn’t a clear international sign that autonomy is being respected in Hong Kong. But at the same time, I think for a lot of Americans, our concern and our motivation is to do right by the legitimate wishes of the people of Hong Kong. And it’s just not an easy question for us to answer.”

 

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“这或许正是送终条款至今尚未被贸然通过的原因。”

Simone: “And maybe that’s why this legislation is not being rushed so far.”

 

叶望辉(华府国际顾问公司执行长/曾任副总统切尼的副国家安全顾问):“我认为听证会已经提到日程上了,开放的讨论是有建设性且有实际作用的。或许正是因为有这样一个法案摆在这儿很重要,可以放出一个讯号,你知道,我们这套工具可能不完善,但是这里有些后果将会起作用。并且我们想让香港人民、香港政府,甚至让共产党明白这些。如果国会对待这些议题态度明确,或许会对行政部门有帮助,行政部门就可以把这个法案放在与中国进行广泛协商以及对付香港政府的一揽子措施之中。因此,我们在政治和安全方面所看到的,与贸易再平衡是分开的。我认为,这些紧张的局势有可能会成为更加危险的冲突。各方可能会在公海上彼此误判,同时解放军会冒险挑衅、搞扩张。与更广泛的贸易再平衡、再新谈判相比,可能对香港自治的破坏,外界对中国看法的影响更大,从根本上说,我认为贸易再平衡不是反华。而其它这些举动,我认为中共冒的风险是非常非常可观的,可能引发广泛的对中国这个品牌的负面反弹。因此,我认为它们是独立的,不同的议题,我不认为贸易谈判是必然的坏事。即使对中国而言,在某种程度上它也在重新平衡,中国最终可能会与美国建立更加持久的经济关系。我认为这就是川普总统的愿景,就是要努力的方向。但不同的是,中国的领导层似乎并不愿意在目前在这一点上作出这种让步。所以也许他们正试图等待2020年大选,看看他们是否可以与另一位总统达成更好的协议。我不知道他们的算法是什么。但是贸易谈判本身并不一定是人们通常认为的那样是战争,即使它被说成那样。”

Stephen Yates:“I think a hearing is in order, and open discussion is constructive and useful. And it might be that this bill is important to put in place so that there’s a signal sent that, you know, we may have an imperfect set of tools, but there are these consequences that will come into play and we want the people of Hong Kong, the government of Hong Kong, but also the CCP to understand this and it might help the administration if Congress takes a clear view on these kinds of issues and the administration can then put that into its toolbox of negotiations with China broadly and its dealings with the government in Hong Kong. And so what we’re seeing in politics and security is separate from the trade rebalancing. And those are where tensions could become, I think, more dangerous conflicts. Miscalculation on the high seas with the PLA being too adventurous and too expansionist. The potential destruction of autonomy in Hong Kong has bigger consequences for perceptions of China  at writ large, than the broader trade rebalancing renegotiation, And fundamentally I don’t think that the trade rebalancing is anti-China. Whereas these other moves, the CCP risks I think are very, very substantial, broad based negative backlash towards China as a brand. So I see them somewhat as separate and different and I don’t see that the trade negotiations as something that’s necessarily bad. Even for China, in some ways it’s rebalancing and China could end up with a more sustained glide path for economic relations with the United States. I think that’s what president Trump’s vision was meant to try to move towards. The difference though is the leadership of China doesn’t seem willing to make that kind of concession at this point. And so maybe they’re trying to wait out the 2020 election to see whether they can get a better deal with a different president. I don’t know what their calculus is. But the trade negotiations themselves are not necessarily what one would normally think of as a war, even though it gets talked about that way.”

 =======================

Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao
Editors:Julian Kuo, Bin Tang
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Transcription: Jim Battaglini
Translation: Linda Du, Juan Li, Tung Tung, Chao Yu, Frank Yue
Proofread: Greg Yang
Cameraman: Wei Wu, Jimmy Xie, York Du
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer:Bin Tang, Merry Jiang
Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com

 New Tang Dynasty Television
Zooming In
August, 2019
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