【新唐人2012年8月16日讯】中共中央对外宣传办公室，8月14号举行新闻发布会，会议介绍了中共十八大代表的选举情况，并公布了2270名代表的名单。但是，当被问及常委人数是9或7人时，中共中央组织部副部长回应：“不知道”。常委人数“9变7”一直被海外媒体所关注，有分析认为，“9变7”的“难产”，说明胡锦涛“陷入两难”。
中共中央组织部副部长王京清，在新闻发布会上说，中共十八大代表选举工作，从去年10月开始部署，到今年7月已经顺利完成。
当《华尔街日报》记者，问及有关中央政治局常委人数是否“9变7”时，王京清回应，政治局常委由中央委员会全体会议选举产生，“中央政治局常委由多少人组成，我也不知道。”
美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士、时政评论家李天笑表示，现在中共高层对常委“9变7”守口如瓶的主要原因是，高层权利博弈还在最后的较量中，一些利益上的交易还没完成。
时政评论家 李天笑：“因为从最近的几件事情可以看出来，一个就是温家宝，受到毛左方面的人让他辞职，温家宝我们知道，在打薄的过程中，他是起主要的作用，第二个原因，就是薄熙来朝什么方向定罪，这个是一个很关键的问题。”
第三个决定因素，李天笑认为和政法委的“消权”有关系，但是不管怎样，李天笑表示，“胡温习”在处理薄熙来的问题上，通过打击薄熙来，已取得了决定性的优势，因此中共十八大常委人数，会按照他们的意志来定，“9变7”可能性是非常大的。
李天笑：“还有一个因素就是说，胡锦涛现在处在两难的地步，他一方面要击鼓传花，他想在他传位的时候，在他起一定影响作用的时候，中共不要在他手上垮掉，再一个他又想在常委中，保持他继续的控制能力，这两个东西，要同时做的话，在这个过程中就会出现一些比较复杂的情况。”
此外，时事评论员夏小强表示，由于中共一党专制的特性，中共高层的政治运作一向是黑箱操作。
时事评论员 夏小强：“胡温政府很有可能在十八大前，无法完成处理薄熙来和周永康的问题。那么，这将会给习近平、李克强，新一届政府带来极大隐患，特别是他们不能公开，周永康、薄熙来政变谋反、迫害法轮功，以及活摘法轮功学员器官的罪行和内幕。”
夏小强认为，如果这些罪恶继续隐藏下去，势必给江泽民、周永康势力的反扑留下机会，也给中共高层未来的形势增加了很多变数。如何处理周永康以及他在中共内部的势力，是新一届领导人面对的难题。
与此同时，《华尔街日报》报导，在谋求社会稳定和领导层顺利换届的过程中，中国经济诸多领域中，日益加剧的问题一直被掩盖着，这些问题包括政府的腐败，坏账和结构失衡等，不过，新一届政府最终总要接下这个烂摊子。
那么，如何拯救这个烂摊子，对新一届领导人来说，无疑是一个严峻的考验。
李天笑：“十八大只是中共内部权斗的一个反应，中共总的来说，他是走向崩溃的。他现在民心已经完全失去了，现在大量的党员退党，很多人对中共腐败已经忍无可忍了。”
据了解，不只是大量的党员选择了抛弃中共——退党，就连在中共所谓的改革开放中获利的富豪们，已有16%移民海外，而44%正准备移民，他们同样也选择了“背弃中共”。
李天笑分析指出，备受中共摧残的老百姓，更是对中共不抱任何幻想。他认为，在这种情况下，不管十八大怎么开，人数由9人转成7人，或者是由谁当选，都拯救不了中共必然灭亡的结局。
采访编辑/常春 后制/王明宇
Hu Jintao in Dilemma
On August 14, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central
Committee Outreach Office held a press conference.
It explained the election situation
for the 18th National People’s Congress (NPC).
It also announced a list of 2,270 representatives.
The Vice Minister of the CCP Central Committee
Organization Department was asked whether there will be 7 or 9 Standing Committee members.
The Vice Minister responded, “I do not know".
International media are focusing on whether the
Standing Committee will reduce from 9 to 7 members.
Analysts believe the change from 9 to 7 is very hard,
and this represents a dilemma for Hu Jintao.
Vice Minister Wang Jingqing of the CCP Central Committee
Organization Department spoke in a news press conference.
Wang stated that the 18th NPC election had started last
October, and was successfully completed in July this year.
When a Wall Street Journal reporter asked if there will be
9 or 7 Politburo Standing Committee members,
Wang Jingqing responded that the Standing Committee
will be elected by the Central Committee plenary meeting.
“As for how many in the Politburo
Standing Committee, I do not know."
Dr. Li Tianxiao, expert and critic in political science
at Columbia University, U.S. commented.
The reason why the CCP leadership is not talking about
whether the Standing Committee members will change
from 9 to 7 is because the infighting on power among
the high levels of the CCP has not ended yet.
There are some transactions
of interests that are not completed.
Li Tianxiao: “We can tell from recent cases that Wen Jiabao
was asked to resign by the leftist faction.
Wen played an important role in overthrowing Bo Xilai.
What Bo Xilai will be convicted of is also a critical issue.”
Li Tianxiao also believes it has something to do with
reducing the power of the Politics and Law Committee.
By attacking Bo Xilai, Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao
and Xi Jinping have gained a decisive advantage.
It is very possible the number of members in the 18th NPC
Standing Committee will be decided by them.
Li Tianxiao: “Another factor is that Hu Jintao is in a dilemma.
On the one hand, he has to
“pass the flower while the drum beats".
He did not want the CCP to collapse in his hands
while he is in power and still has some influence.
On the other hand, he wants to continue his control
of power within the Standing Committee.
If he did the two things together,
there will be some complications.”
Commentator Xia Xiaoqiang said that due to
the CCP one-party dictatorship, it has always been a hidden operation in politics.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “The Hu-Wen administration is unlikely to finish
dealing with Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang before 18th NPC.
It will bring great risks to the new
administration of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.
This is especially if they cannot disclose the crimes
of Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai.
This crimes include conspiring to undertake a military coup,
being involved in the persecution of Falun Gong,
and organ harvesting from living Falun Gong practitioners.”
Xia Xiaoqiang believes that if these crimes continue
to be hidden,
Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang’s faction
will be able to have a chance to counterattack.
It adds a lot of variables to the future
situation of the CCP leadership.
It is a difficult problem for the new leaders to decide how
to deal with Zhou Yongkang and his forces within the CCP.
The Wall Street Journal reported that in the process
of seeking social stability and a smooth change of leadership,
many economic issues are becoming more serious.
However, they continue to be covered up.
This includes government corruption,
bad debt and structural imbalances.
However, the new administration ultimately
has to take over this situation.
It is undoubtedly a severe test for the new leaders
to know how to deal with this situation.
Li Tianxiao: “The 18th NPC is a reflection of CCP infighting.
In general, the CCP is going to collapse.
It (CCP) has already lost people’s minds and hearts.
Now many members have quit the CCP.
Many can no longer tolerate the corruption in the CCP."
Not only are a large number of CCP members
abandoning and quitting the CCP.
Wealthy people who emerged during the reform and opening
of the CCP are also choosing to ‘abandon the CCP’.
16% have moved overseas,
and another 44% are ready to move.
Li Tianxiao analyzed and highlighted that Chinese people
who have always been suppressed by the CCP have given up any illusions towards the CCP.
So in this circumstance, no matter how the 18th NPC is held,
whether the standing committee members are 9 or 7,
or whoever is elected, the demise of the CCP’s is inevitable.
