【新唐人2012年9月18日讯】中共即将在18大上交接最高权力，重组中央政治局常委。而对于中共至关重要的军队最高领导层——中央军委，也将面临大换血。高达7成的军委委员因为超龄将退休，其中很多重要位置很可能将由“太子党”接任。有评论认为，“红二代”全面执掌军队，有助于即将接班中共最高权力的习近平巩固地位。
现任中央军委成员中，军委副主席郭伯雄、徐才厚，国防部长梁光烈，总参谋长陈炳德，总政治部主任李继耐，总后勤部长廖锡龙，二炮司令员靖志远，海军司令员吴胜利等人，都已超过67岁。在即将到来的军委换届中，他们很可能会因超龄而退出中央军委。据传，现任军委成员中，只有空军司令员许其亮（62岁）和总装备部长常万全（63岁）将留任。军委换血将达7成。
可望进入新一届中央军委的大多是中共建政以后出生的中壮派将领。目前呼声较高的有：北京军区司令员房峰辉，总后勤部政委刘源，二炮政委张海阳，副总参谋长马晓天、孙建国、章沁生、魏凤和，沈阳军区司员张又侠等人。
这些有望接掌军队最高权力的将领，很多都是中共元老和领导人的第二代。例如，刘源是中国前国家主席刘少奇之子﹔张海阳，中央军委前副主席张震之子﹔马晓天，是解放军政治学院前教育长马载尧之子，马晓天岳父是解放军前中纪委副书记张少华﹔张又侠，是中共前将领张宗逊之子。
而刚刚被提拔为上将军衔的“国防大学”政委刘亚洲，则是中共前国家主席李先念的女婿，刘亚洲父亲刘建德是八路出身。海军政委刘晓江，是中共前总书记胡耀邦的女婿，老红军刘海滨之子。他们都属于“红二代”将领。
最近一段时间，因为薄熙来密谋夺权事件的冲击，军队一再宣誓支持中共总书记胡锦涛。现在，“红二代”将全面执掌军队，而支持处罚薄熙来、即将接掌中共最高权力的习近平，也是太子党出身，并且，据传习近平与刘源等人关系密切。因此，有分析认为，军方变动事关中共权斗。
美“哥伦比亚大学”职工 藏人玛交巴塔：“中共最害怕就是发生政变。军队要放自己的人才放心。它让军队听话，现在不听话的人很多。归根到底就是为了保住共产党的政权。”
时政评论员文昭则向《新唐人》表示，历史原因造成目前有机会晋升中央军委、年龄在60岁左右的中共高级将领，确实基本都是太子党。
时政评论员文昭：“他们20岁左右走向社会，从学校出来工作的时候，大约是70年代。这个时间点，其实对于当时这些中共领导官员的子女来讲，他并没有太多的出路。那个时候基本就是从军。”
文昭指出，最近几十年中共军队没有经过大的战争，升迁就是靠关系、论资排辈。军中太子党因为体制内优势，自然要比平民军官升迁快。文昭认为，在现行军队体制中，思想开明、业务能力强的军官很容易被边缘化，因此下届军委很难有什么新意。
文昭：“军队体系的维持和整个中共体系的维持，本质上没有两样。它主要是靠体制内的关系网络，和建立在这个网络上的利益来维持的。个别某些人有些特别的观点，能不能带来什么改变，我都不报这个希望。”
在此之前有报导说，马晓天有望接任空军司令员，潜艇部队出身的孙建国可望接掌海军，二炮出身的魏凤和可能接任二炮司令员。刘源、张海阳、张又侠、章沁生等人则有望执掌四总部，其中刘源接任总政治部主任的呼声最高。
采访/常春 编辑/李谦 后制/君卓
Chinese Communist Party Princelings In Power of Central Military Commission
The upcoming 18th National Congress of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) will see a reshuffle.
The top leadership of the CCP’s Central Military
Commission (CMC) also faces big changes.
70% of CMC leaders will retire, and are likely
to be replaced by the generation of Princelings.
Commentators say the Princelings’ succession in the army
helps Xi Jinping solidify his position as the next leader.
The majority of incumbent CMC
members are all over the age of 67.
The list includes CMC Vice Chairmen Guo Boxiong and
Xu Houcai. Defense Minister Liang Guanglie;
Chen Bingde, Chief of People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) General Staff Headquarters;
Li Jinai, Chief of the PLA General Political Department;
Liao Xilong, Chief of PLA General Logistics Department;
Jing Zhiyuan, Commander of PLA 2nd Artillery Force;
and Navy Commander Wu Shengli.
Only two current CMC members will remain their seats.
They are Air Force Commander Xu Qiliang, aged 60,
and Chief of PLA General Armament Department, Chang Wanquan, aged 63.
That means, 70% CMC members will be replaced.
The new generation of CMC leadership expectedly
consists of middle-aged generals who were born after 1949.
The leading candidates are Fang Fenghui,
Commander of Beijing Military Region;
Liu Yuan, Political Commissar of PLA
General Logistics Department;
Zhang Haiyang, Political Commissar
of PLA 2nd Artillery Force;
Deputy Chiefs of PLA General Staff Headquarters,
which include Ma Xiaotian, Sun Jianguo, Zhang Qinsheng and Wei Fenghe;
It also includes Commander of Shenyang
Military Region Zhang Youxia.
Most of these new CMC leaders-in-waiting
are children of the CCP veterans and top leaders.
This includes Liu Yuan, son of former
CCP President Liu Shaoqi;
Zhang Haiyang, son of former
CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Zhen;
Ma Xiaotian, son of Ma Zaiyao, and former
Director of Education at PLA Political Academy;
Zhang Youxia, son of former General Zhang Zongxun.
The new General Liu Yazhou is the son-in-law
of Li Xiannian, former CCP President.
Liu Yazhou is the current Political Commissar
of the PLA National Defense University.
Liu Yazhou’s father joined the CCP-led Eighth Route Army.
Navy Political Commissar Liu Xiaojiang is the son-in-law
of Hu Yaobang, former CCP General Secretary.
Liu Xiaojiang’s father joined the CCP’s Red Army.
Since Bo Xilai’s plot to seize central power was exposed,
the military has repeatedly sworn it’s support for Hu Jintao.
Now the children of CCP revolutionaries
are expected to hold power in army.
CCP President-in-waiting Xi Jinping, who supports
the punishment of Bo Xilai, is also a Princeling.
Sources said that Xi Jinping has close ties
with Liu Yuan, and some other generals.
Analysts believe that the armies reshuffle
is linked to the CCP’s top-level infighting.
Chopathar Wayemache, Tibetan staff, Columbia University:
“Coups are what the CCP fear most. So it always appoints their reliable persons to control the army.
Currently, lots of army men are disobedient.
So, all in all, the CCP wants to keep its regime.”
Critic Wen Zhao says that historical reasons created
chances for the princelings of CMC leaders-to-be.
Wen Zhao: “They graduated from school
at about 20 years old, in around the 1970s.
In that era, for the children of CCP senior leaders,
they didn’t have other way outs but to join the army.”
Wen Zhao remarks that in recent decades,
the CCP army has not been involved in big wars.
Promotion inside the army all depends
on relationships, or by seniority.
Owning advantages inside the CCP system,
the princelings in the army could get faster promotions compared to ordinary officers.
Wen Zhao says that in the CCP-ruled army, open-minded
and capable officers are easily marginalized.
Therefore, new CCP army leadership is not
expected to present any innovation.
Wen Zhao: “In essence, there’s no difference
in preserving the army system and the CCP system.
The systems are mainly reliant on internal networks,
of personal connections and network-derived interests.
I’m don’t think that some individuals’ special
views could trigger changes in the CCP.”
Earlier on, the media reported that Ma Xiaotian
might take over as Air Force Commander;
Sun Jianguo might be the new Navy chief, and Wei Fenghe
is likely to replace the PLA 2nd Artillery Force Commander.
It was speculated that Liu Yuan, Zhang Haiyang,
Zhang Youxia and Zhang Qinsheng might take the helm of the four PLA General Departments.
Liu Yuan was reportedly top of list of to-be-leaders, to take
the seat as the Chief of PLA General Political Department.
