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【世事关心】金正恩访华 谁是最大赢家?

相关专题:  [金正恩访华]   2018-04-03 11:01 PM
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【新唐人北京时间2018年04月03日讯】【世事关心】 (464)进来朝鲜峰会只是在朝鲜、韩国美国之间进行,峰会基本上把中国和日本这两个东亚国家排除在外,然而近况发生了变化,金正恩秘密会见了中国主席习近平。中国和朝鲜两个国家的领导人,从不掩饰自己不喜欢对方。那么所以他们现在之间的关系互动如何呢?为何金赶在与韩国和美国会谈之前紧急会见北京呢?


朝鲜首脑金正恩上星期秘密访华。他此行的目的是什么?

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un secretly traveled to China early last week.What was the purpose of his trip?

陈破空先生(时政评论家):〝他的要价就是立即让中方停止制裁,大部分制裁,而且紧急的向朝鲜进贡。〞

〝immediately end China’s sanctions or most of them;pay urgent tribute to North Korea.〞

习近平和金正恩二人在取得政权之后关系冷淡。这两位领导人之间的互动会是怎样的?

Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un have had acold relationship ever since they came to power.What is the dynamic between these two leaders?

陈破空先生(时政评论家):〝所以双方的利益的需求,使他们再一次走近,忘记过去几年之间的血海深仇、之间的冷淡,再次走近。〞

〝Driven by common interests,they let go of their unpleasant past and shook hands once more.〞

中美贸易战展开,谁会赢得这场贸易较量的游戏?

The US-China trade war has begun.Who will win in the economic pain game?

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):〝几乎所有的大牌都握在我们手里。过去美国唯一缺乏的就是政治意志。川普总统想必已经有了那样的政治意志。〞

〝We’re holding almost all the high cards.The only thing the U.S.has not had in the past is political will.President Trump might actually have that political will.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。近来,美朝峰会只是在朝鲜、韩国和美国之间进行。峰会基本上把日本和中国这两个东亚国家排除在外。然而,最近情况发生了变化,金正恩秘密会见了中国主席习近平。中国和朝鲜两个国家的领导人之前从不掩饰自己不喜欢对方。那么他们现在之间的关系互动如何呢?为何金赶在与韩国和美国会谈之前紧急会见北京呢?一些评论认为,这是警告美国、韩国,他们无法掌控中国与朝鲜之间的盟友关系。虽然川普总统获悉习金北京会面后发推文表示乐观,但是他心里的真实想法是什么呢?如果中美贸易战能起到作用的话,究竟能起到什么样的作用呢?在这场中美经济消耗战中,谁更能坚持呢?我们将在本期《世事关心》节目中深入探讨这些问题。

Welcome to《Zooming In》.I’m Simone Gao.Up until recently,talks of the US-Korean summit have only been between North Korea,South Korea,and the United States.It has largely left out Japan and China.That is,until last week when Kim Jong Un made asecret trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.The two leaders have never concealed their dislike for each other,so what is their relationship dynamic now?Why the urgent trip to Beijing before Kim’s official talks with South Korea and the U.S.?Some say it’s awarning to the U.S.and South Korea that they have no control over China’s alliance with North Korea.Although President Trump tweeted optimistically when he heard about the Beijing meeting,what was really on his mind,and what role does the US-China trade war have in all of this,if any?And who will win the economic Pain game between the US and China?We’ll explore these questions and more in this episode of《Zooming In》.

3月26日晚,有人发现一列长长的车队从人民大会堂(中国官员立法和举行重大仪式之处)沿着长安街行驶。一天前,该车队一直跟随着一辆神秘的列车,这辆列车从中朝边境丹东驶来,沿途戒备森严。上星期早些时候此事激起广泛猜测,认为列车里的神秘人物可能正是朝鲜领导人金正恩——他们猜对了。直到金正恩返回重重警戒的列车后,中朝才在周三早上承认金正恩为期3天的到访。这是他作为朝鲜领导人首次出访。严格保密和警备森严是金家的一贯做法:金的父亲和祖父也曾如此到访中国,且只是在他们回到朝鲜之后才宣布他们访问过了中国。

On the night of March 26,a lengthy motorcade was seen heading down Chang’an Avenue from the Great Hall of the People where Chinese officials have legislative and ceremonial activities.Escorted by heavy security,this motorcade followed amysterious train ride that passed Dandong,the North Korea and China border aday before.It sparked wide speculation early last week that this mysterious traveler was none other than North Korean leader Kim Jong Un--and they were right.It wasn’t until after Kim had returned on the same armored train that China and North Korea confirmed his 3-day trip Wednesday morning.It was his first foreign trip as the leader of North Korea.The extreme secrecy and security surrounding it is afamily tradition:Both Kim’s father and grandfather traveled in similar trains and only announced their China visits after they had returned to North Korea.

上周二,中国简短告知白宫金正恩来访一事,其中有习近平对川普总统的一段私人信息。习称这场访问〝很顺利〞,而且金期待着几周后与川普总统的会面。中国方面还说,金正恩愿意与美国讨论裁军问题。虽然川普总统于3月9日同意会见这位朝鲜领导人,但这是金正恩自己首次提到此事。

China briefed the White House on Kim’s visit last Tuesday,which included apersonal message from Xi Jinping to President Trump.Xi said the visit went〝very well,〞and that Kim Jong Un looks forward to meeting with President Trump in the coming weeks.China also said that Kim is willing to discuss disarmament talks with the U.S.Although President Trump agreed to meet with the North Korean leader back on March 9th,this was the first time Kim mentioned it.

川普总统似乎对在金正恩访华之后的美朝对话持乐观态度,但是同时发推文称〝与此同时,遗憾的是,仍应不遗余力地保持最大的审慎和持续施压。〞

President Trump sounded optimistic about US-North Korea talks after Kim’s China trip,but tweeted,〝In the meantime,and unfortunately,maximum sanctions and pressure must be maintained at all cost!〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):早些时候我与时政评论家陈破空先生,就金正恩访华一事进行了讨论。

Earlier,I spoke with senior political commentator and NTD TV contributor Chen Pokong about Kim’s surprise visit to China.Let’s take alisten.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝有人说,金正恩访问中国是习近平对川普贸易战的报复,您同意这个观点吗?另外,习近平他想从这次金正恩的访问获得什么呢?〞

〝Some say Kim’s visit is Xi Jinping’s revenge on Trump’s trade war.Do you agree?And what did Xi expect to harvest from this visit?〞

陈破空先生(时政评论家):〝当然,金正恩莅访北京,突然实行了习近平跟金正恩的高峰会。当然从习近平、从中方的角度来讲,其中因素之一就是报复美国。美国发起了贸易反击战,对中国长期不遵守贸易规则的行为做出一个反击,这时中共要在贸易上反击的牌比较少,因此他要藉助其它问题。中国的官方媒体也说了,要在朝鲜问题、南海等其它问题上去损害美国的利益,说是让美国感到〝痛〞。另外还有一点是,美国也刚刚通过了台湾旅行法,加强了跟台湾的关系,所以对中共来说基本上是把朝鲜当作一张牌跟美国打,所以说中朝的再度接近和习近平跟金正恩的突然会见、仓促会见,其背景就是中美关系的大变化,中美关系的颠覆性的变化,这个是一个大背景。而对习近平来说,至于得到什么,实际上他要抢在金正恩会见韩国总统之前,4月份;抢在金正恩会见美国总统之前,那是5月份。抢在之前,中方跟朝方实行高级首脑会议,表示自己抢了个先机,一方面不会让中方在解决朝鲜问题中边缘化,因为当中方听到了美国总统跟金正恩要举行高峰会的时候,大吃一惊,他们就马上采取紧急行动,不能被边缘化,要把中方的角色加进去,因此这次会见就是告诉美国、告诉韩国,中国的角色仍然很重要,中朝这种传统的盟友随时可以恢复。〞

〝Well,Kim’s sudden move made the Xi-Kim summit possible.Of course,for Xi and China,one of their motives was to get revenge on the US.The US trade war is aresponse to China’s long-term disobedience of trade rules.Since it has few trade cards to rely on,the CCP has to fight back on other issues.As China’s state media put it,it will affect American interests on the issues of North Korea and the South China Sea,swearing to let the U.S.feel the〝pain.〞Another point.Considering the reinforced US-Taiwan ties after the approval of the Taiwan Travel Act,basically,the CCP deems North Korea as acard to counteract the U.S.So,behind this sudden,hasty visit was this:significant or subversive changes have taken place in Sino-US relations.A huge background.Back to what Xi obtained,he was in fact fighting the clock to realize asenior summit with Kim before he visits South Korea in April and the US in May.China wants to show it has seized the initiative,never getting marginalized.In fact,the May Trump-Kim summit took China back!It took immediate action to squeeze itself into later events.So,this visit is to warn the U.S.and South Korea:China is still vital;and the old China–North Korea alliance can be resumed at any time.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝从金正恩的角度来说,他想从这次会面获得什么呢?〞

〝For Kim,what did he want to get from this meeting?〞

陈破空先生(时政评论家):〝对金正恩来说,有两个,第一个他要解决燃眉之急。因为他跟韩国总统会谈是4月份,那么要得到韩国的援助至少四月份之后。他跟美国总统的会见是5月份,那么美国会不会给他援助,还要看双方谈的怎么样。那么他现在面临的是以美国为首联合国全面的制裁,尽管中共在暗地里还有一些支持,比如在海上贸易、海上的船对船的介面,对他偷偷进贡还有点支持。但是总的来说,他受到制裁压力非常大,空中被切断,路上通道被切断,只有一点海上通道也受到了美国、日本、韩国等国的封锁和检查,因此他的经济到了非常困难的程度。制裁的压力使得北朝鲜政权、金正恩感到空前的危机,在这样的情况下,他的燃眉之急要立即找一些援助。因此他之所以访问中国,跟习近平高峰会,双方都有需求,当习近平需要他来的时候,他也会提出他的要价,他的要价就是立即让中方停止制裁,大部分制裁,而且紧急的向朝鲜进贡。朝鲜90%的粮食,90%的石油都仰赖于中国,这一点他要立即恢复,至少要把绿车皮的二十几节车厢给装满,空车而来,满载而归,这是一个。再一个,他还有大的需求,他过去打核武牌、导弹牌的时候,他利用大国的矛盾,把大国玩弄于股掌之上,其实没有大国能轻易动武,那么现在他又玩和平牌,利用韩国换了一个和平主义或者绥靖主义的总统,那么大打和平牌,打了和平牌,他成功了,他可以跟韩国总统会见高峰会,他可以跟美国总统高峰会,同时中方紧急的转向,也愿意跟他举行高峰会了,他何乐而不为?因此在大格局上,金正恩也打开了,俨然成为最大的赢家,可以说是左右通吃,往东打通了美国这个大国的大门,往西又打通了中国这个大国的大门,再加上韩国的配合,所以在这种情况下,金正恩的需求是,以中国为背景跟美国谈判,又以美国为背景跟中国谈判,他可以说是左右逢源,看上去是踌躇志满,大赢家一个。〞

〝For him,two things.First,he is mad to kick his top concern.He can’t get aid from South Korea until he has talks with its president in April.And he is unsure about U.S.aid after he meets Trump in May.But Kim is facing afull-scale,US-led UN sanctions.Despite stealthy support from the CCP,e.g.sea trade through ship-to-ship contact,Kim is under tremendous sanctions pressure:both air and land passages are cut off;even limited sea passages are blocked or checked by the U.S.,Japan and South Korea.So his economy is staggering;such pressure gives Kim an unprecedented sense of crisis.Therefore,his top concern is to gain aid.So,both he and Xi have mutual need for this visit.When Xi needed him,Kim gave his quotes:immediately end China’s sanctions or most of them;pay urgent tribute to North Korea because 90%of its grain and oil depend on China.This he needs urgently;at least about 20 of his empty,green carriages should be fully loaded with aid on the way home.Second,his bigger demands.Kim used to play the nuclear weapons and missiles card.He used conflicts between powers,fooling them as he likes---none would resort to force.Now he turns to the card of peace!With it he deals with South Korea’s new,pacifist President;and he gained asummit chance.Likewise,he succeeded with Trump.Then China,abruptly turning its policy,also agreed to asummit with him.So,why not accept the invitation?Strategically,Kim’s been asuccess,kind of the biggest winner.Eastward,he won afavor from the US;westward,he did so from China.And with South Korea as asupport.Kim’s strategy is negotiating with the US with China behind him,and negotiating with China with the US behind him.Well done!And seemingly aBIG winner.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝嗯,大家现在最关心的是,他折腾了这么一大圈,最后真的会执行半岛无核化吗?〞

〝Will Kim Jong-un actually denuclearize North Korea after such fanfares?〞

陈破空先生(时政评论家):〝我想这种可能性非常小,根据历史上金日成、金正日到金正恩的表现。尤其从金正日到金正恩这父子的表现来说,他们所谓弃核只是一个手段,他们本身制造了核问题,然后拿这个问题跟国际社会去要价。他们自己因为对内压迫人民,对外威胁和平,自己把经济搞得贫困和崩溃,但是却要别的国家为他的经济灾难买单。那么他买单的一个方式就是制造核武,制造核武器威胁其他国家,威胁韩国、日本、美国,整个国际社会,然后让这些国际社会跟他谈判,拖得他们被迫跟他谈判,谈判的目的就是向这些国家敲诈来弥补他的经济惨状,拯救他的经济崩溃的惨状,巩固金家的政权。由于他的出发点是巩固金氏世袭政权,因此他不可能真正意义上弃核,而且金正恩已经表示,在元旦左右就反覆表示,说朝鲜已经成为核国家、核大国,这个是无可逆转的进程,而且说已经载入党章、载入宪法,不可逆转。那么现在他跟韩国表态,不愿意谈这个问题。但美国他之所以谈这个问题,美国认为你没有把这个前提条件放到无核化、弃核这个前提条件下,美国是不会跟你谈的。中方只不过是跟他演双簧而已,过去是公开地演双簧,现在是隐晦地演双簧,中方对他弃不弃核,对中共政权来说并无所谓,而且他的很多核设施和核原料还是中方去的、从中过去的,所以最关心这个问题的是韩国、美国、日本,这些民主国家、和平国家。因此他是利用这个谈判,他弃不弃核,而且要价多高,不得而知,他说了反话,他说要看美国和韩国的‘善意’,要看是否同步的进行。那么这个‘善意’由他来决定,他如果说你提供了千万的物资算‘善意’,他也可以说不够,要你100亿才算一个善意,由他来定义,也就是说他随时可以翻脸,就跟上一次金正日跟韩国谈一样,韩国又在开辟工业园区,又开辟游客去旅游,又给他大量的援助,他最后还是嫌不够,仍然把这些援助拿去搞他的核武,搞他的导弹,所以作为一个共产党政权,一个独裁政权,我认为国际社会是不应该轻信的,所以在这个时候要认为他真正想弃核,我认为那这个路还非常的遥远。〞

〝I think it’s very unlikely.Based on the track record of the three generations of Kims,especially Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un,the so-called denuclearization is nothing but ascheme.They created the nuclear crisis in order to use it as abargaining chip for foreign aid.Internally,they oppress and impoverish the people;Externally they threaten international peace.They wrecked DPRK’s economy and created adisaster,but they want other countries to foot the bills.Their plan is to build nuclear weapons,threaten South Korea,Japan,and eventually the US and international peace;force them to the negotiation table for ransom to save the Kim dynasty from atotal collapse.Because Kim’s ultimate goal is to strengthen his regime,there’s no way for him to truly give up the bargaining power that only nuclear weapons possess.Moreover,Kim Jong-un had repeatedly stated that DPRK had irreversibly become anuclear-armed state.It’d also been added to their constitution and party doctrines that would never be rescinded.Kim is unwilling to put denuclearization on the table when negotiating with South Korea.The United States,however,would never come to the table without DPRK’s agreement to acomplete denuclearization and disarmament.China has been playing along with Kim.It was done publicly in the past,but now they do it behind the curtain.China doesn’t care whether DPRK is anuclear power or not.As amatter of fact,many of North Korea’s nuclear facilities could not be built without China.It’s South Korea,Japan and the US that are most concerned about this issue.Kim knows it and has been playing the card against them.I’m not sure how high his price tag would be for denuclearization,but I’m sure he has no intention to follow through.He promised something that he would never deliver.Kim said that it depends on the"goodwill"of the US and South Korea.The judgment of"goodwill,"however,is totally up to him.If tens of millions of dollars were to be given to him as atoken of"goodwill,"he may turn around and say that’s far from enough.He may claim that only 10 billion dollars can be counted as goodwill.Just like what Kim Jong-il had done to South Korea last time.South Korea’s goodwill-the industrial park,tourism,and monetary assistance were not enough.Kim Jong-il never stopped developing his nuclear warheads and ICBMs.We shouldn’t be gullible and get tricked by the communist totalitarian regime once again.I believe atrue denuclearization is beyond the reach at this moment.〞

接下来,习近平与金正恩的互动情况如何,川普总统对峰会态度又是什么。请继续收看。

Coming up,what is the dynamic between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un,and how does President Trump feel about the summit.Stay tuned.

此次会面标志着中朝关系的转变。中朝关系自2011年金正恩上台以来一直处于紧张状态。金于2013年处决了自己的姑父张成泽,后者据称向中国出卖了朝鲜利益。张成泽受到了习近平的支持。金正日同父异母的哥哥金正男被中国选定为一旦发生政变,金正恩下台后的替代者。2017年金正男在印度尼西亚时,虽受到中国保护,但仍遭暗杀。

The visit marked achange in Chinese-North Korean relations,which have been tense since Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011.Kim executed his uncle Jang Song Thaek in 2013 for supposedly selling out North Korea to Chinese interests.Jang Song Thaek was backed by Xi Jinping.Kim’s half-brother,Kim Jong Nam,the China-picked replacement for Kim Jong Un in case of acoup that could remove Kim Jong Un,was also assassinated in 2017 in Indonesia while under Chinese protection.

金正恩与习近平自成为各自国家领导人后关系冷淡。他们从未会见过彼此,甚至习的特使宋涛在2017年访朝时都未能见到金正恩。而他的前任李建国不仅在2012年见到了金正恩,且会见还作为头条新闻在朝鲜中央电视台播出。李建国的访朝时间上在习近平成为中国国家主席之前。

Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping have had acold relationship ever since they became leaders of their respective countries.They have never visited each other,and Xi’s special envoy Song Tao(宋涛)was not even able to meet with Kim Jong Un when he visited North Korea in November,2017,while his predecessor Li Jianguo李建国was not only able to meet with Kim Jong Un in 2012,but also made it to the top news on North Korea’s Central Television.Li’s visit was before Xi became the president of China.

然而,这样的互动似乎已急转直下。金正恩于3月26日到达北京后,在人民大会堂受到盛大欢迎,并受到国宴、艺术表演和午餐高规格的待遇。连金的父亲金正日、祖父金日成都从未享受过如此高的礼遇。

However,that dynamic seems to have changed suddenly.When Kim Jong Un arrived in Beijing on March 26th,he was greeted with agrand ceremony at the Great Hall of the People and astate banquet,complete with an art performance and luncheon.Neither Kim Jong Un’s father Kim Jong II,or his grandfather Kim Il Sung ever received such awelcoming.

中朝关系的近期解冻意味着什么?美国如何看待这一切,再来听陈破空先生的看法。

What does the recent thaw in relationship between North Korea and China mean?How does America look at it?Let’s hear from Chen Pokong again.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝习近平上任之后,金正恩从来没有访问过中国,他和习近平的关系也一直很冷淡,但是恰恰在这个敏感时候金正恩访问中国,而且习近平高规格接待了他,您觉得这说明了习近平和金正恩的关系现在是处于一个什么样的状态呢?〞

〝Kim Jong-un had never visited China.He had never developed any personal relationship with Xi Jinping.However,he was well received by Xi during this crucial trip.What would you say about the current relationship between Xi and Kim?〞

陈破空先生(时政评论家):〝先是金正恩在2011年上任,后来习近平在2012年上任。在上任以来这两人作为个人,双方对对方都没有好感,习近平试图要改变过去的朝鲜政策,对金正恩很冷淡;而金正恩认为习近平没有承认他的地位,还三心二意,也对习近平非常反感。过去发生了很多不愉快的事情,一方面双方都没有高层互访,可以说金正恩提出、习近平也不会答应,即便是习近平提出来,金正恩也不敢去,应该说这两人的个人关系非常的恶劣。那么朝共和中共,北朝鲜和中共他们之间的两党,所谓的关系又是非常的复杂,意识形态的虚同,战略上的犄角之势共同对付美国文明世界,这个双簧戏一直存在,只不过是时热时冷、时高时低。那么现在他们面临一个选择,就是对付美国,因为美国由于贸易反击战、由于与台湾的关系,让中共觉得泰山压顶,他需要有别的方式来反制美国,同时北朝鲜也需要利用中共来对韩国进行更多的要价,所以双方的利益的需求,使他们再一次走近,忘记过去几年之间的血海深仇、之间的冷淡,再次走近。〞

〝Kim took power in North Korea in Dec.2011;Xi did it in China ayear later in Nov.2012.They had no need to hide their dislike of each other.Xi tried to change China’s past policies on North Korea.Kim had been snubbed by Xi countless times.Kim is resentful toward Xi because Xi failed to recognize him as the supreme leader of DPRK,instead Xi had asecret plan of replacing Kim with his half brother.There had been few agreements between the two communist leaders.Neither had there been any official high-level exchanges.I can confidently say that there’s no rapport between them.However,the relationship between CCP(Chinese Communist Party)and WPK(Workers'Party of Korea)is extremely complicated.They’ve been sharing an ideology that appear to be the same but is actually non-existing.They badly need each other,however,to resist and undermine the influence of the US.The alliance between the two totalitarian regimes has always been there.The strength of the ties,however,fluctuates from time to time.There’s anew challenge for the alliance presented by the Trump administration.Beijing has been squeezed by the threat of atrade war and the newly signed Taiwan Travel Act.It has no option but to pick up the North Korean card once again.In the meantime,Kim also needs Beijing to bargain for abetter deal.Driven by common interests,they let go of their unpleasant past and shook hands once more.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝再说一下川普这方面的反应。川普总统一方面表示乐见金正恩和习近平会晤,但是另一方面表示对朝鲜的最大限度的贸易制裁不能放松,那您觉得川普他对这次的金习会真实的想法是什么?〞

〝President Trump seemed to be optimistic about the meeting between Xi and Kim.However,he insisted that the toughest sanctions against North Korea should stay.What does he really think about this meeting?〞

陈破空先生(时政评论家):〝首先,川普和川普政府对金正恩和习近平的突然会见应该感到是意料之外,没有想到的。另外中方在访问结束之后,可以说是先秘密,后公开,应该是朝方的要求,另外是先斩后奏,先搞的是向别的国家通报,中方做了一个通报,也保留了中美关系一定的对话性,同时呢通报中还带了习近平的一封亲笔信致川普,表示一下解释,但是这个亲笔信本来就是两重含义,一个含义是,我通报你了,我还是很讲中美关系的,我没有把你当外人,解决朝核问题,我愿意跟你合作。但是另一方面也是一个明示,我跟朝鲜的关系不是你美国所能动摇的,我跟金正恩的关系不是你川普跟金正恩的一次见面所能够替代的,因此是对美国的一个警告,所以说川普发这个推文是一个礼节性的,但是可以说川普他不会抱幻想,对中共和朝鲜都不会抱幻想,因为川普不是一个像奥巴马或克林顿一样书生式的总统,他是个商人式的总统,讲究实际,他要的不是谈判,他要的是行动,当中美之间要谈判的时候,他给一个百日谈判计画,如果说谈不出结果,他就不再谈判了,他就采取行动,贸易反击战,那么当朝鲜要这个谈判的时候,他可以给足你面子,实现一个朝美高峰会,他跟别的美国总统都不一样,可以非常规的、出人意料的表示同意,我就跟你谈。但是如果你北朝鲜耍花招,金正恩耍花招,试图在核武问题上耍花招来套取美国的援助的时候,川普马上就表示没门,所以川普紧急换上了鹰派的人出任国务卿,国家安全部这些重要的职位,不仅是为对付朝鲜做准备,也是为了跟对付中共做准备,所以他心里非常清楚的是,中朝会联合起来对付他。这件事情的大背景就是中美关系的翻覆,中美关系急转直下,中美关系面临一个悬崖边,在这样的情况下,就像美国要打台湾牌一样,中共也要打朝鲜牌,这是这个事情的大背景。〞

〝I believe the Trump administration was surprised by the unannounced Xi-Kim summit.China only made it public after the fact,most likely per Kim’s request.After Kim left for Pyongyang,Xi sent the US anotification to keep the communication channels open between China and the US.Attached in the notification is aletter to Mr.Trump penned by Xi.The personal letter,however,delivers two messages between the lines.On one hand,the Sino-U.S.relationship is important to me(Xi).You’ve(Trump)never been treated as an outsider.I’m willing to collaborate with you to dissolve the nuclear crisis in North Korea.On the other hand,it’s clear that the China-North Korea alliance cannot be swayed by the US.So it can also be asignal of warning to the US.Trump’s tweet,in my opinion,is just acourtesy response.I don’t think Trump has any rosy ideas about the CCP and North Korea.Unlike Clinton and Obama,Trump is not ascholarly president,he remains arealistic businessman to the core.What he wants are actions instead of negotiations.Last year,when he was talking to Xi,he laid out a100-day plan.When there was no meaningful result from the talks,he put in place the tariffs and initiated the trade war.Trump is unlike any of his predecessors.When Kim asked for ameeting,he agreed unexpectedly against conventional wisdom.However,if trickster Kim intends to play anuclear trick for foreign aid,Trump would shut the doors.That’s why Trump put Pompeo,Haspel and Bolton into key positions.The hawks are released to deal not only with North Korea,but also China.Trump is crystal-clear about the implications of the Xi-Kim handshake.The events are set up in the grand picture of the fluid and changing Sino-US relationship,which is hanging by athread.Under such circumstances,when the United States plays the Taiwan card,the CCP would surely respond by playing the North Korean card.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):相似问题,我们再来听一下《每周野兽》的专栏作家《核武摊牌:朝鲜对抗世界》的作者章家敦先生的看法。

For similar questions,let’s hear from The Daily Beast columnist Gordon Chang,who is the author of Nuclear Showdown:North Korea Takes On the World.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普总统对金正恩和习近平会面的真实想法是什么?〞

〝How does president Trump really feel about Kim Jong-un’s meeting with Xi Jinping?〞

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):〝作为第一步,川普需要继续保持对朝鲜的制裁,我们必须这么做。如果朝鲜有意与我们对话,也只是希望拿掉制裁。现在,美国总统称金正恩与中国对话是件好事,但是从我们的角度看,当然不是如此。正如我们从2003年的六方会谈中看到的,中国利用在会谈中的中立位置,实质是在帮朝鲜,而不是帮我们,他们基本上起到的就是一个恶劣的影响。所以我认为,川普同意直接与金正恩对话是一个英明决策,因为这样就可以把中国甩开了,现在中国想再次插进来。而我认为美国总统在与朝鲜会谈的时候,应该让中国人滚得越远越好,因为在这方面中国是不会帮我们的。〞

〝Well,as an initial matter,Trump is going to keep the sanctions on North Korea,which we absolutely have to do.If there’s any reason why the North Koreans want to talk to us,it’s to get sanctions released.Now,the President of the United States may say it’s agood thing for Kim Jong Un to talk to the Chinese,but from our perspective,it’s certainly not.As we saw during the six-party talks that started in 2003,China used its central position in those discussions really to help the North Koreans more than to help us.They were generally amalign influence.So Ithought it was brilliant for Trump to agree to talk to Kim Jong Un directly because that cut out the Chinese.The Chinese are trying to reinsert themselves in the process,and Ithink that the President of the United States should try to keep the Chinese as far away as possible from his discussions with North Korea because China is not going to be helping us in this regard.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):您认为朝鲜真的会实现无核化吗?

〝Do you think North Korea will really denuclearize?〞

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):〝金正恩最最不愿意做的事情就是放弃核武。但这已经不是金正恩自己的问题了,这已经是川普的问题了。因为川普有能力在不动武的情况下迫使他放弃核武。所以我们就可以制裁那些帮朝鲜洗钱的中国银行。我们还可以对朝鲜贸易进一步加以限制。我们有很多种方案,只是我们是否有这样的政治意志去实施。所以叫我看来,金正恩是否放弃他的核武不是他自己说了算的,是川普说了算的。〞

〝Kim Jong Un–the last thing he wants to do is give up his weapons.But this is not aKim Jong Un issue.This is aDonald Trump issue.Because Trump has the ability to force him to give up his weapons even without using force.So we can put sanctions on Chinese banks that have been laundering money for the North Koreans.We can be putting even tighter restrictions on North Korean trade.All sorts of things are in our toolbox.It’s just aquestion whether we have the political will to use them.So whether Kim Jong Un gives up his nukes is not aKim question in my mind.It’s aTrump question.〞

接下来,在中美之间,谁会赢的贸易战?敬请收看。

Coming up,Between U.S.and China,who will win in the economic pain game?Stay tuned

中美贸易战已经打响。川普总统下令,拟对中国价值500亿至600亿美元的出口货物征收关税。这些货物涉及航空、信息和通信技术以及机械领域。作为回应,中国已确定一份包括128种商品的清单,将对清单内价值30亿美元的美国产品征税,以示报复。

A trade war has begun.President Trump issued an order to levy tariffs on$50-to$60 billion dollars’worth of Chinese goods in the areas of aerospace,information and communication technology,and machinery.In response,China identified alist of 128 goods,targeting$3 billion dollars’worth of U.S.products for retaliation.

3月21日,美国贸易代表罗伯特.莱特希泽在国会证词中解释了美国在选定征税商品时所采用的两个标准。他解释说他们开发了一种演算法,该演算法既能最大限度的从经济上惩罚中国,同时对美国消费者的影响又会最小。采用的第二个标准就是中国自己搞的《中国制造2025计画》,就是全面升级中国工业的计画。

On March 21,Robert Lighthizer,the US Trade Representative,explained in his testimony before Congress how he used two criteria in selecting goods.He explained that they developed an algorithm that imposes maximum economic pain on China with aminimum impact to U.S.consumers.The second criteria used was China’s own〝Made in China 2025,〞a comprehensive initiative to upgrade Chinese industry.

另一方面,中国对价值30亿美元的商品进行征税,其目标即集中在那份128种产品的清单上。排在前列的是:葡萄酒、水果和坚果、钢管、改性乙醇和花旗参。

Narration:On the other hand,China’s$3 billion-dollar target focused on alist of 128 products.The top of the list includes wine,fruits and nuts,steel pipes,modified ethanol,and ginseng.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):双方似乎都愿意谈判解决,但同时也都声称并不惧怕打一场贸易战。如果双输的结局无法避免,那么哪一方能坚持更久,哪一方会败下阵来呢?而且,最终又是谁为贸易战买单?我采访到经济专家Gordon Chang,让我们来听听他的意见。

Both sides seem to be open for negotiation but have also claimed that they are not afraid of atrade war.If alose-lose situation becomes unavoidable,who will be able to endure,and who will back down?And ultimately,who will end up paying the price?I asked Gordon Chang what he thinks will happen.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝中国和美国现在看来各自立场都很坚定。如果贸易战带来双输的局面,您认为哪个国家有能力忍受更长时间的痛苦?〞

〝Both China and the US are taking firm positions right now.If atrade war brings alose-lose situation,which country,in your opinion,can endure the pain longer?〞

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):〝很多人认为中国方面更能打持久战,因为中国是一个专制社会。中国领导人可以做出调整。是的,他们当然可以调整。但是,我们别忘了,中国的经济很脆弱。中共的合法性依赖于他们能给人民带来持续的经济繁荣。从我们的角度来看,别忘了在2016年的时候,中国商品贸易顺差总额的68.0%来自于出口美国。这说明中国经济对美国市场的依赖程度是令人吃惊的。而去年,同比上升到88.8%。因此,商品贸易为逆差的国家对贸易战确实不太担心。而像中国这样贸易为顺差的国家则必定担心。另外,不仅如此,还有其它方面值得考量。我们的经济是稳定的。而中国的经济是脆弱的,正朝着债务危机的方向发展。此外,美国的经济总量比中国大得多。我们的GDP超过19万亿美元。中国也就12万亿多一点吧,假如你相信他们带水分的数字的话。这世界总是大经济体说了算,小经济体靠边站。几乎所有的大牌都握在我们手里。过去美国唯一缺乏的就是政治意志。川普总统想必已经有了这个政治意志。所以贸易战一定是我们赢。〞

〝Many people say China will endure the pain longer because they say it’s an authoritarian society.Chinese leaders can make adjustments.Well,yeah,they can make adjustments.But let’s remember that it’s fragile,that they have based their legitimacy on the continual delivery of prosperity.From our side,we’ve got to remember that in 2016,68.0 percent of China’s overall merchandise trade surplus related to sales to the United States.That’s an incredible dependency on the U.S.market.And last year that number went up to 88.8 percent.And so trade-deficit countries don’t really worry too much about trade wars.Trade-surplus countries like China certainly need to.And we’ve got,remember,some other things.We have astable economy.China has afragile one,heading into adebt crisis.And our economy is much larger than China’s.Our economy is over$19 trillion dollars GDP.Theirs is somewhat over 12 if you believe their inflated numbers.Big economies push small economies around.We’re holding almost all the high cards.The only thing the U.S.has not had in the past is political will.President Trump might actually have that political will.So we should win the trade war.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您认为,公平贸易最终谁会受益?有人认为,公平贸易也会令中国消费者受益,因为美国的产品可能更便宜。您同意吗?〞

〝Who do you think will end up benefiting from fair trade?Some argue that fairer trade would also help Chinese consumers since US products may become cheaper.Do you agree?〞

章家敦先生(Gordon Chang/The Daily Beast Columnist):〝当然。一个更开放的经济,意味着中国的产品会更便宜。这一点毫无疑问。不过,我倒认为,对美国来说,真正的关键是,如果我们与中国开打贸易战,美国的物价不会涨。因为,首先很多商品中国的生产成本并不低。现在生产成本低的是孟加拉国、约旦、墨西哥、瓜地马拉这些国家。现在我们就从这些地方购买服装和低价物品。所以,如果我们不从中国买,或者中国的产品价格贵了,那么孟加拉国、越南、瓜地马拉和约旦这些国家,就给我们提供和今天一样廉价的商品。美国很多农民害怕中国。他们说,你看现在好了吧,中国不买我们的大豆了。我认为美国种大豆的农民大可不必过虑。因为假如中国真这么干,比如他们从巴西买了大豆。那就意味着巴西就没有大豆场卖给它的老客户了。这意味着美国的大豆生产商可以把大豆卖给巴西的客户,因为世界上只有这么多的大豆。同样道理,波音也是如此。很多人都在议论,说一打贸易战中国不购买波音的飞机了。假如空客填补了来自中国的订单,那么,他自己原来的客户是不会耐着性子再多等几年的。这些客户就会从波音买飞机。所以你会看到,波音和空客的客户就会这样变来变去。所以,我认为,对于中国人我们大不可必过虑。让他们吹胡子瞪眼睛去吧,但是,你只要看一看全球市场是怎么运作的,你就会明白,噢,原来我们安然无恙。〞

〝Well,certainly.A more open economy means that products in China become cheaper.No question about that.I think the real issue here,though,is,for the U.S.,it isn’t going to be any more expensive products if we have atrade war with China because,first of all,China is not the low-cost producer of many goods.Countries like Bangladesh,Jordan,Mexico,Guatemala are.And that’s where we’re buying our clothes and low-cost items right now.So if we don’t buy them from China,or if Chinese products are more expensive,then--Bangladesh,Vietnam,Guatemala,Jordan--these countries are going to be the ones supplying us products that are as cheap as the ones we’re buying right now.Many American farmers are worried about China.They say,well,you know,China might not buy soybeans from us.I don’t think American soybean farmers have to worry too much.Because if China were to do that,they’d be buying soybeans from,let’s say,Brazil.That means Brazil wouldn’t be selling to its traditional customers,which means American soybean producers would be selling to Brazil’s customers.Because there are only so many soybeans in the world.And the same general principle applies to Boeing.Because alot of people talk about China not buying Boeing aircraft because of the trade war.Well,customers of Airbus are not going to wait years longer for deliveries because Airbus fills China orders.They’re going to be buying products from Boeing.So you’re going to see the customer mix of Boeing and Airbus change.So Idon’t think we have to worry too much about the Chinese.They can huff and puff,but when you look at the way the global markets operate,we’ll be okay.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):美中贸易战或许不会像许多人想像的那样严重影响美国或美国农民的利益。但是,由于中国对美国市场存在更大的依赖度,所以中国会感受到由此带来的痛苦。金正恩的秘访中国表明国际社会对朝鲜的制裁正在生效,金正恩急需修复与习近平的关系纽带。但即将举行的弃核谈判可能只是为了挣脱制裁和获得更多物资援助的诡计。《世事关心》将持续为您关注这一事件和美中贸易战。感谢您的收看,我们下周再见。

So the US-China trade war might not affect the U.S.or its farmers as much as many have anticipated,but China will feel the pain because of its greater dependency on U.S.markets.Kim’s secret China trip shows that sanctions against North Korea are working and he needs to repair ties with Xi Jinping.But the upcoming talks of disarmament might just be aruse to release sanctions and get more foreign aid.Zooming In will keep an eye on these developments.Thanks for watching and see you next time.



======================================

策划:萧茗

撰稿:Jess Beatty Michelle Wan萧茗

剪辑:Julian Kuo Bonnie Yu Frank Lin

Bin Tang Jing Guo

翻译:Rich Crankshaw John Zhang

摄影:Jimmy Song

特效:Harrison Sun

文稿整理:Bin Tang Sherry Chang Merry Jiang

反馈请寄:ssgx@ntdtv.com

主持人配饰由云坊Yun Boutique提供

《世事关心》2018年4月

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