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【世事关心】中期选举 将如何影响美国政治?

2018-09-05 11:00 PM
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【新唐人北京时间2018年09月05日讯】【世事关心】(478)中期选举 将如何影响美国政治?


许多人,特别是很多媒体都没有预料到川普会赢得2016年总统大选。眼下,随着中期选举临近,人们又开始预计民主党要胜选。公众舆论和民调专家认为共和党将失去众议院多数和一些州长席位。但是,11月底的选举结果会不会像上次那样出人意料?

过去美国总统所在的政党,在美国内战之后的39次中期选举中,失利36次。这次会怎么样?
The president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 midterms since the Civil War; what will happen this time?

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝这次中期选举的选情和以往的情况确实有相似之处。〞
〝The dynamic of this midterm definitely resembles midterms of the past. 〞

当前的选情对众议院里的共和党人不利,但是他们仍然有一个先天的优势能帮助他们打赢选战。
The outlook of the House map does not look too desirable to the Republicans, but they still have a natural advantage to pull it off.

科尔.康迪克(弗吉尼亚大学政治中心传播总监):〝就是说右翼在中间选民占多数的众议员选区里的支持度,要比全国平均水平高4%。 这一点充分说明了共和党的优势。〞
Kyle Kondik: 〝so the median House district is 4 points to the right of the nation, which I think is a good way to illustrate this Republican advantage.〞

许多共和党参选人在竞选中主要攻击民主党的〝进步政策〞带来了负面效果。人们会认同这个吗?
A number of Republicans are running on the negative effects of Democrats’ progressive policies. Will people relate to that?

安德鲁.德拉马(企业老板):〝现任州政府把各项事业都搞得一团糟。〞
Andrew Delamar:〝 Almost every aspect of this state is poorly managed because of government. 〞

A.J.(脱离运动成员): 〝我主修政治科学,从前是左翼人士、前激进左翼人士,我后来改变了立场,现在我是光荣的保守派中的一员。〞
A.J.: 〝I’m a political science major, a former leftist -- a former radical leftist -- I’m a convert. Today I’m a proud conservative.〞

中期选举会怎样影响总统?
How will this midterm affect the president?

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝关键问题在于,如果民主党重新控制众议院,他们是否会弹劾总统?〞
〝 Well, the big question is whether or not – if the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives, whether they will move to impeach the president.〞

安德鲁.德拉马(企业老板):〝我不是要故作惊人之谈。但是我真认为,那样(川普被弹劾)的话,国家就要爆发内战。〞
Andrew Delamar:〝 I don't want to be dramatic, but I really think that's push it towards some kind of civil war。

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。许多人,特别是很多媒体人,都没有料到川普会赢得2016年总统大选。眼下,随着中期选举的临近,人们又开始预计民主党要胜选。公众舆论和民调专家认为,共和党将失去众议院多数和一些州长席位。但是,11月底的选举结果会不会还像上次那样出人意料?目前在一些民主党的大州,比方加州,人们对当地政府的左倾政策的不满正在加剧。因此有人认为共和党并非全无机会。另一方面,如果民主党赢得众议院,会给美国政治、社会、和川普带来何等影响?在这一期的《世事关心》,让我们来探讨这些问题。
President Trump’s 2016 presidential election win was a surprise to many, especially those in the media. Now, with the midterms coming up, many are again anticipating that Democrats will win big. Public opinion and polling experts predict Republicans will lose the House of Representatives and many state governor races. But will we once again be surprised this November when the midterm results come in? There’s been growing discontent with the effects of progressive policies in deep blue states like California, and some say Republicans still have a fighting chance in the House. On the other hand, if Democrats do win a majority in the House, what will that mean for American politics, society, and the president? We’ll discuss these questions and more in this episode of Zooming In.

11月6日,美国中期选举就会上演。众议员的全部席位和三分之一的参议员席位都将改选。36个州会重新选举州长。很多州和地方政府也会重选官员。
U.S. midterm elections are coming up on November 6. All seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and a third of the Senate seats will be contested. In addition, 36 states will elect their governors. Many states and local governments will also elect officers.

中期选举对执政党通常都很艰难。在众议院,自内战以后,美国总统所在的政党在39次中期选举中失利36次,平均失去33个席位。自二战以后,他们平均失去了26个席位。
Midterm elections are often difficult for the incumbent parties. In the House, the president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 midterms since the Civil War, losing an average of 33 seats. Since World War II, they’ve lost an average of 26 seats.

共和党目前在众议院拥有237个席位。 民主党拥有193个席位。 掌控众议院需要218个席位。
Republicans currently hold 237 seats in the House of Representatives. Democrats hold 193 seats. It takes 218 seats to control the House. They need 23 seats to win the house.

弗吉尼亚大学政治学中心和益普索民意调查显示,在435个众议院席位的争夺中,民主党和共和党几乎势均力敌,其中有35个席位的归属只在毫厘之间。
the 435 House seats, Democrats and Republicans are almost evenly matched, with 35 toss-ups.

在国家新闻俱乐部新闻发布会上,弗吉尼亚大学政治中心的Kyle Kondik表示民主党赢得众议院的可能性更大,因为总统的支持率很低,而民主党在总体民调中的领先达到了他们的预期。 然而,他也认为共和党有可能继续掌控众议院,他认为这是因为公众普遍亲共和党。
At a National Press Club press conference, Kyle Kondik from The University of Virginia Center for Politics said that Democrats will have a better chance to win the House because the president’s approval rating is low and the Democrats’ lead in the House generic ballot is where they want it. However, he also sees a scenario where Republicans can hold onto the House. He attributes that to a generic public lean to the Republicans.

科尔.康迪克(弗吉尼亚大学政治中心传播总监):〝如果把所有435个众议员选区,从最亲克林顿的选区到最亲川普的选区做一排列,你会发现其中一个选区恰好在中间。 川普在这个选区赢了克林顿2%。而克林顿在全国范围内赢了川普2%。这就说明右翼在中间选区的支持度要比全国平均水平高4%,我认为这很好的说明了共和党的优势。〞
Kyle Kondik: 〝If you would line up all 435 House seats from Clinton’s best district to Trump’s best district, and you find the one that’s precisely in the middle, it is a district that Trump won by two points. Clinton won the national popular vote by two, and so the median House district is about four points to the right of the nation, which I think is a good way of sort of illustrating this Republican advantage. overall, the Republicans have a built-in advantages of the house map which if they do in fact hold on that could be part of the reason why. 〞

但是,《分裂的时代》一书的作者汤姆.德尔.贝卡罗认为,两党在国会选举中的总支持度仍然有变数,川普的民意调查值仍然接近他的历史最高点, 这表明谁能掌控众议院仍在未定之天。如果共和党人能变地方选举为全国选举,提出一个与民主党搞的增税和社会主义截然相反的2019年施政方案的话,共和党人仍有可能控制众议院。
But Tom Del Beccaro, author of 〝The Divided Era〞, argues that the Generic Congressional Ballot remains fluid and Trump's polling remains close to his all-time high. That indicates the outcome of the control of the House is in play and if Republicans can "nationalize" the election by offering a game plan for 2019 that contrasts with the tax hikes and socialism offered by the Democrats, Republicans can still hold onto the House.

至于参议院竞选,益普索地图显示民主党处于劣势。 在今年改选的35个参议员席位中,属于民主党的有26席,其中包括两位加入民主党议会党团的无党派议员。 此外,几乎所有民调不高的民主党参议员都面临改选。 事实上,今年参议院民主党人所面临的选举格局,是参议院选举开放选民投票以来最差的之一。在35个改选的席位中属于民主党的有26席。
As to the Senate race, the Ipsos maps show the Democrats are at a disadvantage. They are defending 26 of the 35 seats being contested this year, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Additionally, almost all of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats are on the ballot this year. In fact, Democrats have one of the worst Senate maps in the history of popular Senate elections this year. They are defending 26 out of the 35 seats that are up.

州长选举和参议员选举有着截然不同的选情。 在这次选举中,共和党人占据的36个州长席位中的26个要改选。弗吉尼亚大学的杰夫表示,这次选举也可能对共和党产生影响。
The gubernatorial map is the mirror opposite of the Senate map. The Republicans are defending 26 out of the 36 governorships in this election season. Geoff from the University of Virginia indicated that this election could have an impact on the Republican Party as well.

Geoffrey Skelley:〝现在,在州长选举上,共和党在很大程度上处于守势。很多重要的州将改选州长,很多是中西部的州。这些州的州长选举之重要,是因为关系到下一轮的选区重划,像是密歇根、威斯康辛、俄亥俄,目前这些州的选区划分对共和党非常有利。要保持住现有优势,下一轮选区重划就极为重要,我认为州长的归属将决定选区会如何重划。但是共和党在这些州却没有现任者优势,他们的在职州长都不再竞选连任。〞
Geoffrey Skelley: 〝Now, on the governors’ side, Republicans are very much on the defensive. And a lot of the gubernatorial contests are going to take place in important states, a lot in the Midwest, that are very important when you think about the next redistricting cycle -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio -- these were all states where Republicans were able to really draw very, very sharp gerrymanders that favored their party. So if you’re thinking about the next redistricting cycle in those states, I think the governorships are a key part of that. In a lot of these states where Republicans are defending governorships, their incumbents aren’t running for reelection. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):我还与美国企业研究所公众舆论和民意调查高级研究员卡琳.鲍曼女士,讨论了这次中期选举的前景,看看她怎么说。
I also discussed the prospects for this year’s midterm elections with Karlyn Bowman, senior fellow polling expert at the American Enterprise Institute. Here is what she has to say.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝这次中期选举的动态与过去的中期情况是否有相似?〞
〝 Does the dynamic of this midterm resemble that of the previous ones?〞

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝这个中期选举的动态非常类似于过去的中期选举。预计今年11月共和党肯定会失去一些席位。虽然具体的数字不确定,但是我们认为这其间伸缩性会很大,并且在很多情况下比历史平均值大得多。例如,有些人认为共和党人可能会失去多达40到50个席位。我预计的数字不会那么大,但我认为还是会接近历史平均值。〞
〝The dynamic of this midterm definitely resembles midterms of the past. The expectation is that the Republican Party will certainly lose seats this November. We don’t know what the number will be, but the ranges are very large, and much larger in many cases than the historical average. For example, some are suggesting that the Republicans could lose as many as 40 to 50 seats overall. I expect it will be lower than that, but I think it will probably certainly follow in the past historical pattern.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝如果是这样的话,那么民主党人接管众议院的可能性有多大?〞
〝 So if that’s the case, what’s the likelihood that Democrats will take over the House?〞

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝如果真是这样,民主党就将接管众议院。他们需要获得23个席位,眼下大多数分析师都认为民主党将实现这一目标。〞
〝Yes, the Democrats would then take over the House. They need to pick up 23 seats, and the expectation among most of the analysts at this point is that they will do that. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝参议院的情况怎么样?〞
〝 How about the Senate?〞

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝参议院是一个不同的机构,大多数人认为共和党将继续控制参议院,甚至还有可能增加一到两个席位。〞
〝 The Senate is a different body, and most people think that the Republicans will maintain control of the U.S. Senate and may even possibly pick up a seat or two. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝据RealClearPolitics报导,目前川普总统的支持率为42%。这将如何影响中期选举? 他的背书对候选人是利还是弊呢?〞
〝According to RealClearPolitics, President Trump’s approval rating is 43 percent now. How will that impact the midterm? Will his endorsement help or hurt the candidates?〞

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝我认为川普总统会为那些急需借重他的影响力的候选人背书。他的背书必须要能正面影响选情。但是他不会轻易参与今年秋季的大部分众议院竞选,甚至大部分参议院的竞选。川普是一个箭靶,在大多数民意调查中,他的支持率仅介于40%到44%之间,这个支持率是历史新低。对于一个上台不满两年的总统, 我认为作为箭靶的他,在今年秋季只会在那些他能发挥影响力的选区出现。〞
〝 I think President Trump will endorse some candidates where he thinks he can make a difference, where he thinks he can make a positive impact. But I think we will not see him venturing into most House races this fall or even most Senate contests. He’s certainly a lightning rod. His support level is about 40 to 44 percent in most polls. That’s historically low at this particular time, and he’s such a lightning rod that I think that only in those districts where he could make a difference will he appear in the fall.〞

接下来,共和党候选人将把揭露左倾政策带来的危害作为竞选主轴。
Coming up, Republican candidates are running on the negative effects of progressive policies.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):共和党在中期选举中面临严峻局势,但他们还是有机会,许多共和党人士希望己方选民能踊跃投票。除了大力催票之外,共和党候选人还将集中批判民主党左倾政策造成的负面影响。
Although the midterm maps don’t look promising for Republicans, they still have a chance, and many constituents are hopeful for a red wave. Besides pushing for turnout, Republican candidates are focusing on the negative effects of Democrats’ progressive policies.

在佛罗里达州,不加掩饰的进步主义者安德鲁.吉卢姆出人意料地赢得了民主党初选,但他的共和党对手,众议院议员罗恩.德桑蒂斯说,社会主义政纲将〝惹恼大众〞。在加州,共和党候选人都把揭露进步主义政策的失败作为竞选主轴。当共和党州长候选人John Cox被问及,为什么他认为自己能在深蓝州获得一席之地时,他说:
In Florida, the unabashed progressive Andrew Gillum unexpectedly won the Democratic primary, but his Republican opponent, House Representative Ron DeSantis, said that a socialist agenda will 〝monkey this up〞. In California, Republican candidates are all running on the failure of the progressive policies. When asked why he thinks he has a chance in a deep blue state, John Cox, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, said this:

John Cox(共和党州长候选人):〝因为加州人民不堪高物价的重负。这里的人们得不到应有的生活品质。他们买不起汽油、买不起住房。加州的公立学校质量在全国排倒数第四,公路上尽是大大小小的坑。目前的州政府只给每人每天配给50加仑的水,这没法过日子,太苦了。 租一套5百平方英尺的公寓就得花3千美元,这令人无法接受。我不得不指出,有人就是因为负担不起工作地点附近的公寓,而被迫每天来回驱车4个小时上下班,这就是加州。只有一小部分人过的好,就好比Gavin Newsom。大部分人生活艰难,我认为人民要求改革。 〞
John Cox:〝 Because the people of California are suffering under unaffordable lifestyles. The quality of life in this state is just not what it should be. They can’t afford gasoline. They can’t afford their house. They are going to schools that are 47th in the nation. They’re driving on roads that are full of potholes. They’re being told by the political class in Sacramento that they’re only going to have 50 gallons of water a day. That’s not livable. That’s not a quality of life. It’s not a quality of life to pay $3,000 for a 500-square-foot apartment. I’m sorry, driving two hours in traffic trying to get to a job that’s a long way away because you can’t find an apartment that you can afford. That’s California. And there’s a thin layer of people who are doing fine, like Gavin Newsom, but there’s a whole lot of other people that are really struggling. And I think people want a change. Help is on the way to those people. 〞

在John Cox先生8月底的筹款活动中,他的政见得到了与会的共和党人的认同。 29岁的企业老板 Andrew Delamar说,加州的严峻情形是他支持共和党人约翰.考克斯的原因。
At Mr. Cox’s fundraising event in late August, Republicans echoed his concerns. 29-year-old business owner Andrew Delamar said the dire situation in California is why he supports Republican John Cox.

安德鲁.德拉马(企业老板):〝现任州政府把各项事业都搞得一团糟。 而且还要进一步扩大政府,以为这样就能解决低效率,低效能的问题。就像老话讲的:官僚系统是为了扩张而扩张,这就是现实。我认为,加州之所以水资源短缺,是因为我们从1979年起没有新建任何水库,而人口却增加了一倍。州长们总是把缺水归咎于气候变迁或全球暖化。而事实上,主因是用水的人增加了一倍,而取水、供给水的能力却一直没有提高。这严重影响了依赖农业的中央峡谷地区,严重打击了本州经济。我们的基础设施的状况也非常不好,去年我开车去了15个州,我们加州的高速公路系统是最差劲的,简直糟透了。〞
Andrew Delamar: 〝Almost every aspect of this state is poorly managed because of government. And the government’s answer for its inefficiencies and ineffectiveness is always more government, which never works. It’s like that old quote that the bureaucracy is expanding to meet the expanding needs of the bureaucracy. That’s where we’re at. I mean, we don’t have enough water because we haven’t built a reservoir since 1979, and our population has doubled since then. So our governor is fond of always blaming climate change or global warming, why we don’t have enough water. And the fact is that we’ve doubled the amount of people drinking our water and using our water, and we haven’t done anything to expand how we capture water or how we use it. And that has a huge impact on the Central Valley and on our economy, especially being mostly ag based. And our infrastructure is poor. I’ve driven – in the last year I’ve been in 15 other states, and we, by far and away, have the worst highways that I’ve driven. It’s terrible.〞

Henry Philany(民众):〝加州是鱼米之乡。我们知道,加州发生了很多不可理喻的事情,局势都快失控了。但是我们相信主、我们相信圣经,我们真的相信上帝已经对加州做了安排,就像他把美国从邪恶手里拉回来一样,他也会把加州引向光明。加州, 其实美国在很多领域引领世界,而加州引领美国。所以我们真得要把加州的局面扭转过来,我相信我们正在这样做,我们到这里来支持回归传统,我们要来个大扫除,你们知道这是什么意思,加州有太多不好的东西需要被清理出去。我真的相信,变革的大潮正从东海岸涌过来。就像是川普原来几乎不可能赢,甚至是投票日之前的晚上和投票当天早上,一切都对他不利,我们一定会扭转局势,我相信共和党会从新掌权,我相信John Cox会当选州长。〞
〝 California is literally the land of milk and honey. As we know, there has been a lot of craziness going on, and it’s gotten pretty nuts out there, but we are believers in the Lord, and we believe the Bible, and we really believe that God has a plan for California. Just like he’s taking America back, he’s going to take California back. California -- actually, America leads the world in so many areas, but then California leads America. So it really comes down to that we’ve got to get this thing turned around here, and I believe we’re doing it. And we’re here to support that. And we’re all in favor of cleaning out the barn, and you know what that means. There’s a lot of stuff in that barn that needs to go out. I really believe that the wave is coming this way from the East Coast. And just the same way it was almost impossible for Trump to win the presidency, even the night before and the morning of the election, that the odds were all against him, I really believe this thing is going to turn around. And I believe the Republicans are going to take it back. I believe John Cox is going to win the governorship. 〞

〝脱离运动〞的成员A.J.也出席了John Cox的筹款活动。当被问到为什么他离开民主党时,29岁的他说他是被误导了。
One member of the〝WalkAway Movement〞was also present at John Cox’s event. When asked why he walked away from the Democratic Party, 29-year-old A.J. said he was misled.

A.J.(脱离运动成员):〝和保守派人士的交流促成了我的转变。我本来对保守派人士有成见,我觉得他们是种族主义者、偏执狂、愚昧、重利轻义。但是当我开诚布公的与他们交流过之后,我改变了自己原来的看法,我开始认真审视他们的政策,我开始了大量的研究、大量的阅读,最终倒向了他们一边。事实上完成这一转变的人有成千上万。说到‘脱离运动’,如果你上脸书、社交媒体、YouTube,你就会惊奇的发现脱离左翼的人数是如此之多,甚至包括合法移民。合法移民对于非法移民得到种种福利感到不满, 他们反对政府把纳税人的钱花在非法移民身上,因为合法移民经过了艰难的申请过程,缴纳了不小的费用, 而非法移民却得到了所有福利,所以援助,和所有支持。〞
〝 What changed my mind is one thing: when I actually sat down with conservatives. I always had pre-assumed judgements on conservatives that they were racist, that they were bigots, ignorant, that they didn’t care about the people, but rather about the wealthy. But just when I decided to have an open mind, to have an open dialogue with conservatives, it literally changed my mind. And I began looking into their policies. I began researching a lot, I began reading a lot, and ultimately I crossed over. Actually tens of thousands of people have crossed over. And the #WalkAway Movement, if you check it on Facebook, on social media, on YouTube, you would be surprised by the amount of people that are walking away from the left, and even foreign-born people that came into this country legally. For someone that came into this country legally and seeing how illegal aliens are being given all these handouts out of taxpayers’ money, reaping the benefits out of taxpayers’ money when legal immigrants go through a hard process, and they pay a ton of fees, and it’s literally a very difficult process. And, yet, illegal aliens get all the benefits, get all the support and all the help.〞

〝脱离运动〞源于纽约的发型师Brandon Straka,他在2018年5月发表的一个自我表白型的视频快速走红。
The〝WalkAway Movement〞was started by New York hairdresser Brandon Straka, who published a confessional video in May 2018 that went viral.

有约500万人在Facebook和YouTube上观看了该视频。 在《大纪元》的采访中,Straka说他每天收到超过1000份的支持信息,包括信件、视频、和电子邮件。
Some 5 million people on Facebook and YouTube have watched the video. In an Epoch Times interview, Mr. Straka said he receives over 1000 testimonial letters, videos, and emails a day.

虽然没有官方数据显示有多少人加入了〝脱离运动〞, 但有趣的是,与之相反的运动却没有出现。
There is no official number of how many people have joined the 〝WalkAway Movement〞. Interestingly, there hasn’t been an equivalent movement from the opposite side.

接下来,中期选举的结果将如何影响国家的方方面面?
Coming up, what impact will the midterms have?

很多人预计,如果民主党夺回众议院多数,他们就会启动弹劾程序。民主党可能还会发出传票,进行更多的调查,造成一个更加分裂的政府,这一切将使法律的通过变得更加困难。
If Democrats regain control of the House, many expect they will move forward with impeachment proceedings. Other results of a Democratic House majority could include subpoenas, more investigations, and a further divided government, resulting in increased difficulties passing legislation.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):州长选举和国会选举将对美国政治和川普政府产生何等影响? 让我们再次请教卡林.鲍曼女士。
How will the governors’ races, along with the House and Senate races, impact the Trump administration and the American politics in general? Here’s Karlyn Bowman again.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您说过州长的选举会格外有看头,能不能详细说说?〞
〝 You said the governors’ races will be especially interesting to watch. Can you elaborate on that?〞

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝我认为今年秋天共和党会失去很多州长席位。这是件大事,因为我们的州长们更开明,不光是在发展本州经济上下功夫,而且努力去解决其它的很多问题,还有他们积极的为选民排忧解难,所以这些州长选举很重要。但是我还是认为,总的来说民主党会在众议员选举中有不错的表现,但是他们不会赢回参议院的多数。〞
〝 Well, I think it might be interesting for your listeners and for your viewers to think about the governors’ races because here -- these I think will be very important in the fall, and I think Republicans are going to lose a significant number of governorships this fall. That’s very important because our governors tend to be more outward looking. They tend to work a lot on trade within their states overall. They tend to work a lot on other issues. And they answer to the voters fairly often in the United States, and so those races are going to be particularly important. But overall, I expect Democrats to do well in the House of Representatives and, unfortunately not, from their point of view, to take back the U.S. Senate. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝如果选举结果是这样,民主党拿下众议员,共和党拿下参议院,很多州长位置被民主党获得,这个新的局面会怎么影响川普?〞
〝 So if the map is like this and the Democrats take the House and the Republicans hold the Senate and a lot of the governorships will go to Democrats, how will this new map affect President Trump?〞

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝一个大问题是民主党能不能重新控制众议院,然后他们会不会试图弹劾总统。很多民主党人认为事情会是这样,认为他们应该弹劾总统。但是也有很多人在这个问题上非常谨慎,所以在竞选活动中你听不见多少关于弹劾的讨论。但是一旦选举结束,如果民主党重新控制众议院,他们就会对新的议长,Nancy Pelosi 或是别的谁,施加巨大的压力去弹劾总统,并且去进行一系列的调查,让总统难堪。〞
〝 Well, the big question is whether or not – if the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives, whether they will move to impeach the president. Many Democrats around the country think that that should be the case, that they should move to impeach Trump. But many others are very wary about that, so you don’t hear a lot of discussion on the campaign trail about impeachment. But once the election is over, and if the Democrats regain control, there will not only be just enormous pressure on the speaker, if it’s Nancy Pelosi or someone else, to move ahead on impeachment and also to move ahead on a series of investigations that could embarrass the president.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝有没有任何可能共和党会保住众议院?〞
〝Is there any chance that the Republicans will still hold the House?〞

Karlyn Bowman(美国企业研究所公众舆论民意调查高级研究员):〝当然有。我必须得说,有些逐个分析各选区选情的专家得出结论,这次中期选举不会是民主党大胜,这让我印象深刻。这些人对于预测选举结果都很谨慎, 在华盛顿的大部分圈里人都不会去具体分析各地的选情,少数几人会关注,但是绝大部分不会。我们并没实地接触选民,所以我们对整个选情很有可能会出现大的误判,共和党还是有可能继续掌控众议院。〞
〝 There is certainly a chance that the Republicans will hold the House. And I confess I’m impressed by some of the people who watch individual races who are suggesting that this is not going to be a Democratic sweep. They’re much more careful about what they think will happen. And because most of us in Washington don’t analyze individual races, a few of us do, but most of us do not. And we’re also not on the ground, so it’s quite possible that we’re missing something big in the country, and the Republicans could continue to hold the House of Representatives.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):还有9周就到中期选举了,各位候选人正在紧张的竞选。这次中期选举对国家和川普总统的重要性超过以往。敬请关注《世事关心》,对于时下的重要事件,我们将用独特视角为您分析。感谢收看,我是萧茗,我们下周再会。
Candidates only have nine weeks before the midterms to convince voters that they’re the right person for the job. This year’s results could have an even bigger impact than normal for the country and the presidency. Stay tuned.《Zooming In 》will bring you unique perspectives on current affairs that matter to today’s world. Thanks for watching. I am Simone Gao. See you next week.


End

=============================

Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao Jess Beatty
Reporter: David Zhang Laurie Gorham
Editors:Julian Kuo Bonnie Yu Melodie Von
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Cameraman:York Du
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Grey Yang Xiaofeng Zhang Juan Li Michelle Wan
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer:Sherry Chang Bin Tang Merry Jiang
Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television
《Zooming In》
September, 2018
===========================================

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发表时间: 2018-09-05 11:00 PM

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