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【世事关心】中期选举:民主党强劲势头减弱 众议院仍有一搏

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【新唐人北京时间2018年10月30日讯】【世事关心】(483)中期选举民主党强劲势头减弱 众议院仍有一搏:中期选举是对在位总统的公众投票,那么川普总统干得如何呢?据《时代》杂志2018年2月报导,前总统奥巴马排名自2014年以来上升了十位,在奥巴马就任总统后,自由派成为民主党的主流,以民主党众院领导人佩洛西为首的民主党议员,全力支持包括〝健保改革〞、〝移民改革〞等自由派议案,与共和党背道而驰。


当前,随着美国经济的持续上扬,失业率的下降,川普总统支持率已达46%,其在共和党内部的支持率更高达90%,因此共和党基本盘回应川普的号召,在中期选举中积极投票给共和党候选人绝对是毋庸置疑。加上倒戈的民主党人,结局或许不难猜出。

中期选举是对川普总统的公投。他履行自己的竞选诺言了吗?
The midterms are a referendum on President Trump. Has he delivered what he promised?

坎迪斯・欧文斯(非营利组织Turning Point USA 公关主任):〝一开始大家对川普总统有些看法和顾虑,但现在人们渐渐刮目相看,因为他真的做到了。〞
Candace Owens: “There was some valid concern and apprehension in the beginning, but that’s sort of shifted because he’s been effective, and he’s actually gotten the job done.”

民主党没能掀起大浪,为什么呢?
What turned the blue wave into a blue puddle?

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝民主党阻挠卡瓦诺进入最高法院,结果把自己伤得不轻。民主党肮脏、卑劣、耍赖、邪恶,把大家都惹怒了。〞
Shawn Steel: 〝What hurt the Democrats, particularly, is the Kavanaugh hearings for the Supreme Court of the United States. Democrats got so nasty, foul, unfair, and vicious, it turned an awful lot of average people.〞

民主党会在加州得到足够席位夺回众议院多数吗?
Will Democrats get enough seats in California to retake the House?

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝现在,我认为他们能拿到一个席位,另外三个还说不定。因此,他们不会从加州拿到足够席位夺取众议院多数。〞
Shawn Steel: 〝Today, I would say they will win one for sure, and three are undecided. So they’re not going to get enough from California to conquer the House.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。中期选举是对在位总统的公众投票。那么川普总统干得如何呢?据《时代》杂志2018年2月报导,根据历史学家评选,〝在‘伟大总统’排行榜上川普排名垫底〞,相比之下,前总统奥巴马排名自2014年以来上升了十位。然而,在奥巴马第一个任期中,他所在的民主党在中期选举中失去参议院63个席位。川普所在的共和党此次选举预期损失的参议院席位,估计是其一半或更少。主流媒体对川普的报道,92%都是负面的,然而美国民众对于经济的信心,是奥巴马时代的一倍以上。2016年总统选举,精英们已经看走了眼。2018年这次中期选举,他们能说对吗?美国民众迫不及待再次于中期选举发出自己的声音。什么是他们的所思所想?让我们带着这些问题,走进这一期的《世事关心》。
Welcome to 《Zooming In》, I’m Simone Gao. Midterms are a referendum on the sitting president. How is President Trump doing, then? In February 2018, Time Magazine had an article titled 〝President Trump Ranks Last in ‘Presidential Greatness’〞, according to historians. President Obama, on the other hand, jumped up ten places in rank since 2014. However, during Obama’s first term, his party lost 63 seats in Congress during the midterms. The estimated loss for Trump’s party is around half of that or even less. The mainstream media’s coverage of Trump is 92% negative, but American citizens’ confidence in the economy more than doubled that of the Obama era. The elite got 2016 wrong. Will they get 2018 right this time? The American people are eager to speak again. What is their message? Let’s explore these questions in this episode of《Zooming In》.


第1部分:中期选举——对川普的公投
Part 1:Midterms——A Trump Referendum

川普总统承诺美国选民,在他上任的头100天内要清理政府腐败,保护美国工人,修复宪政。
President Donald Trump’s Contract with the American Voter set out to clean up government corruption, protect American workers, and restore constitutional rule of law within his first 100 days.

他还承诺要限制非法移民,提高GDP增长率,重新谈判贸易协定,推翻奥巴马健保,减税,改变外交政策。
He also promised to curb illegal immigration, raise GDP growth, renegotiate trade deals, repeal Obamacare, reduce taxes, and take a different approach to foreign policy.

川普总统兑现了很多承诺。
President Trump kept many of those promises.

在经济方面,2018年第二季度GDP增长4.2%, 第三季度3.5%。 自大选以来增加了400万个工作,失业率是将近50年来的最低水平。
On the economic front, in 2018, second quarter GDP growth rate peaked at 4.2%, the third quarter is at 3.5%. 4 million jobs have been created since the election. The jobless claim rate is at its lowest level in nearly five decades.

川普政府完成了,美国历史上第三大的减税行动。美国的企业税曾经是世界最高之一,达到35%,税改把企业税降到了21%。
Narration: The Trump administration accomplished the third largest tax cut in the U.S. history. U.S. corporate tax rate was one of the highest in the world at 35%. The tax cut reduced corporate tax to 21%.

在贸易协定方面,在川普的领导下,美国从环太平洋伙伴协定(TPP)推出,用新的美加墨贸易协定取代了北美自由贸易协定,和欧盟达成了协定,向零关税零补贴方向努力。同时,和中国的贸易战中,向来自中国的500亿美元的商品征收25%的关税,向另外2000亿的商品加收10%。
Regarding trade deals, under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, replaced the NAFTA with the new US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement, and struck an agreement to work with the European Union towards a zero tariff and zero subsidy trade environment. At the same time, the on-going trade war with China imposed 25% tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports and an additional 10% tariff on $200Bn of imports.

火热的美国经济,似乎在减少低收入人口对联邦健保的依赖。
The booming U.S. economy appears to be reducing dependence on federal health insurance for the poor.

低收入医疗保险Medicaid的申请人数自从2007年来首次下降,在2018财政年度下降了0.6%。根据周四发布的Kaiser家庭基金会报告,明年的加入低收入医疗保险申请人数也不会增长很多。
Medicaid enrollment fell for the first time since 2007, declining by about 0.6 percent in fiscal year 2018. States don't expect to see much growth in enrollment next year, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation report released Thursday.

但是川普有没有做的够多,可以说服美国人在11月6日为共和党投票?
But has he done enough to convince Americans to vote Republican on November 6th?

在10月25日华盛顿邮报举办的中期选举预测研讨会上,COOK政治报告的编辑Amy Walter说,美国人仍然是分化的。
At the Midterm Election Preview by The Washington Post on October 25th, Cook Political Report Editor Amy Walter said Americans remain divided.

Amy Walter(Cook Political Report主编):〝我认为从现实的角度出发,我们是在两个不同的美国举行选举。一个是支持川普的美国,这里的许多州是参议院选举竞争激烈的地方。如印第安纳、密苏里、北达科他和西弗吉尼亚州,这些州的选举结果将决定由哪个党控制参议院。那里的现任参议员都是民主党人,所以他们必须保住这些席位。如果民主党想增加席位,甚至于仅仅是维持现状,依我看民主党不减少席位就已经很不错了,他们都需要赢得田纳西和德州的选举,川普在这两个州很受欢迎。这是参议院的选举格局,对川普非常有利。川普不受欢迎的地方,是美国的郊区,尤其是受过大学教育的白人女性不支持川普,那些地方就是众议院选举的关键地区,决定众议院控制权的选区,比如芝加哥郊区、丹佛郊区、达拉斯郊区、北弗吉尼亚什么的。所以我们越来越感觉到,没有哪个党派能在今年的中期选举取得压倒性的胜利。像是足球赛一样,每个人都得一个奖杯,彼此都有所获。但是今天的美国社会仍然是两极分化的、分裂的,就像2016年大选时一样,拥护川普的人会说国家正在变好,我们喜欢总统,我们要支持他,他们在选举中会有他们的收获。另有很多人会说,我们不喜欢总统,我们不认同他的价值观,那些人也会在选举中有所得。所以会出现一个由民主党控制的众议院,一个由共和党占据更大多数的参议院,或者至少共和党还能控制的参议院,我们会回到原来的格局。〞
Amy Walter: 〝I think the best way to think about where we are today is that we’re having elections in two different Americas. There’s an America where Trump’s really popular, and a lot of those states are states where the Senate battleground is taking place. Control of the Senate runs through places like Indiana and Missouri and North Dakota and West Virginia. All of those, of course, are held by Democrats, so they have to hold onto all of those. Even the places where they need to pick up some seats if they want to either gain, or in this case, I think the best case is for Republicans not to -- I mean, for Democrats not to lose seats, they have to win in places like Tennessee and Texas, also where the president’s popular. So that’s the Senate map, where the president’s popular. Where the president’s unpopular is in suburban America, especially among white, college educated women, and that’s where the House map -- that’s where battle for control of the House goes through a lot of those districts, suburban Chicago, suburban Denver, suburban Dallas, Northern Virginia. And so it feels more and more like we’re going to end up with an election night that everybody gets something they like. It’s like a soccer game. Everybody gets a trophy. Everybody wins. But the country remains as polarized and divided today as it was the day after the 2016 election, where there’s going to be a big chunk of Americans who say we like where the country’s going. We like the president. We’re going to support him. And they will have their victories, and a whole part of the country that says, we don’t like the president, we don’t like what he stands for, and those victories will take place in the House. So you have a House that’s blue and a Senate that gets maybe a little more red, or at least stays red, and we’re back kind of where we started.〞

在2016年川普赢得选举的时候,只有一部分共和党人支持他。在中期选举预测研讨会上,非营利组织Turning Point USA的公关主任Candace Owens说,共和党人现在一致支持川普。
The Republican Party was also divided over President Trump when he won in 2016. At the Midterm Election Preview, Turning Point USA Communications Director Candace Owens said Republicans are now supportive of the president.

坎迪斯・欧文斯(非营利组织Turning Point USA 公关主任):〝我认为共和党的团结是长期的,他们在战斗。明显的,在一开始……〞
Candace Owens:〝 I actually think that the Republican Party is at long-last coming together, and they’re fighting. Obviously, in the beginning .〞

提问:〝团结在川普周围?〞
Moderator: Coming together around Trump?

坎迪斯・欧文斯(非营利组织Turning Point USA 公关主任):〝是的,是这样。他们团结在川普周围。一开始有很多顾虑。他是这个国家从来没有见过的总统。我这么说是因为,人们一开始有一些顾虑和担心,这是可以理解的。但是现在不同了,因为川普的施政见了成效,他真的能把事情做成。现在我们是讨论行事风格上的不同,你会听见人们说,他要是不用推特就好了。我总是反对说,他就是靠发推特才进的白宫。他掌握了一种完全不同的沟通方法,他真的是一个靠社交媒体的总统。他绕过媒体,直接和他社交媒体上的支持者沟通,所以我是实实在在的看见人们拥护他。我尤其印象深刻的,是在卡瓦诺大法官的听证过程中。一般说来,一旦有人做出指控,我认为别的总统就会说,好吧,我们放弃这个提名人,去找别人了。川普则逆流而上, 川普支持卡瓦诺。然后我们见到像Lindsey Graham这样的人,通常不支持川普,他在听证会上说:‘天,你们想要权力,我希望你们永远得不到。’ 这里我们看到好像是,他们终于明白了这里边的利害关系。.不好意思今天我们有各个派别的观众,但是我认为左派, 我说的左派不是自由派,我们家很多人都是自由派,左派用极端肮脏的手段争斗,他们要不择手段地阻挡总统。 我认为共和党正在明白这点,共和党支持总统。〞
Candace Owens:〝 Yes, for sure. They’re coming together around Trump. I think in the beginning there was a lot of apprehension. He’s a president that we’ve -- the sort of president we’ve never seen before in this country. I think that because of that there was some valid concern and apprehension in the beginning, but that’s sort of shifted because he’s been effective and he’s actually gotten the job done. And now we’re talking about differences stylistically. You’ll hear amongst people, oh, I wish he didn’t tweet. And I always counter that with, tweeting is why he’s in the White House. He understood how to play an entirely different game. He really is the social media president. And he sort of went around the press to get it out, the story, directly to the people who were following him. So I am actually seeing people rally him. And I specifically saw this ,and I’m so impressed with the Brett Kavanaugh hearing. Typically, as soon as they come up with an allegation, I think any other president would have said, okay, we’re dismissing this nominee and we’re going to have somebody else. And he fought, and he stood by them. And then we saw people like Lindsey Graham, who was not traditionally behind this president, and he said, ‘Boy, you guys want power, and I hope you never get it.’ And we saw something here where it seems like they’re finally understanding what the stakes are and really, forgive me, obviously we have a diverse crowd here, but I think the left, and I separate the left from liberals. I have a family full of liberals. The left is fighting with extremely dirty tactics, and they want to obstruct this presidency at any regard. And I think the Republican Party is waking up to that. And I think that they are standing behind this president and that is something that makes me really happy to see. 〞


下一节: 炸弹事件、非法移民大军和主流媒体,它们会怎样影响中期选举?
Coming up: Pipe bombs, caravans and the mainstream media: How will they impact the midterms?


第2部分:民主党强劲势头减弱
Part 2: The Blue Wave Dwindles

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):换个角度看问题, 我和加州的共和党全国委员会委员Shawn Steel先生聊了一下。
For another perspective, I spoke with Shawn Steel, Republican National Committeeman from California.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝请您谈谈对中期选举形势的总体评估? 您觉得民主党拿下众议院的可能性有多大? 参议院呢?〞
〝 Can you tell me your overall assessment of the race right now? How likely do you think the Democrats will take the House? And what about the Senate?〞

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝先说好消息, 美国参议院将会迎来大惊喜,会看到一些过气的民主党骗子丢掉他们的席位。而共和党预计会丢失一个席位,但是会夺得五席,所以将净增四席, 所以我们会从五十一席增至五十五席,这是一个很大很大的数, 参议院将变好。今年夏天我们遇到一些困难,但是卡瓦诺法官在听证过程中的遭遇,民主党威胁要弹劾川普。 还有强劲的经济是三个在美中地区帮助共和党的因素,尤其是在中西部,这是好消息。众议院就比较麻烦一些,美国有435个众议院席位,这些席位全部要改选,主流媒体向来对川普恨得无以复加,他们从来没有想要川普赢,他们从来没有想到川普会赢。现在川普是总统而且干得很好, 主流媒体就失去理智了. 比方说, 今天《纽约时报》发表了一篇文章, 臆想着川普被行刺,在这个充斥暴力和炸弹,或者虚假炸弹的时代,《 纽约时报》再也不是一家新闻媒体了,它是一个宣扬暴力的机构,这意味着很多人被迷惑了。民主党需要净得二十三席才能控制众议院,我要是不得不打赌的话, 他们有可能会得手,有可能会成功。但是至多是勉强过半,我看见的每一个有竞争的席位,所有对共和党来说比较悬的席位,都只有正负百分之三的差距。所以共和党会以微差落败,或是出现什么意外事件改变选举的结果。我坦率的讲,共和党保住众议院多数的机率大概是百分之四十。但是民主党, 如果他们赢了,也不会赢很多,所以他们不会得到很多权力。 〞
Shawn Steel: 〝Well, let’s start off with the good news. The U.S. Senate is going to have some big surprises with old-line, phony Democrats losing their seats. And we’re expecting maybe a loss of one seat but a pickup of five. So that’s a net gain of four. So we’re going to go from 51 senators to 55. That’s a big, big number, and much better people. We had troubles through the summer, but the Kavanaugh hearings, to talk about impeachment, and the roaring economy are the big three factors that’s helping us in middle America, particularly in the middle west. So that’s good news. The House is more problematic. We have 435 House seats in America. They’re all up for election. And there’s been a tremendous amount of hatred from mainstream media against Trump. They never wanted Trump to win. They never expected Trump would win. And now that he’s president and been extremely effective, they’re just losing their minds. For example, today the New York Times – today the New York Times published an article fantasizing about assassinating President Trump. With this age of violence and bombs or fake bombs, civility, the New York Times is no longer a journalistic publication. It is a violent propaganda piece. It’s no different than the communist party Chinese publication in China. I mean, it’s really ruthless and very destructive. That means a lot of people are confused. The Democrats have to win 23 seats to control the House. If I had to bet, they might control it, they might get it, but it’s only going to be by less than 10 votes. Every seat that I see that’s up for contest, all the ones that are at risk for Republicans, it’s plus or minus three points. So it’s going to be just a feather toss or something very strange could change the elections. Republicans probably have a 40 percent chance – and I’m being candid – of winning the House. But the Democrats, if they win, it’s not going to win it by very much. And so it won’t give them so much power. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝仅在几周前,主流媒体曾报导民主党将取得压倒性胜利,他们预测民主党不仅可能赢得众议院,还有可能赢得参议院,但是现在看来是不可能了。这是为什么呢?〞
〝 Just a few weeks ago, the mainstream media reported that there seems to be a big blue wave coming, so they’re predicting the Democrats not only are possibly going to win the House, but possibly the Senate as well. But now that big blue wave seems to have gone away. What happened?〞

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝 你知道的,大部分的美国媒体、美国娱乐行业、大部分高科技社群都是坚定的左派,从根本上讲是反中产阶级、反普罗大众的。因此他们希望新总统像过去一样,在第一任期的第一次国会选举中失利。在过去的一百年里情形的确如此,但是今年将会不同。我们在参议院的力量会得到加强,在众议院我们也有可能维持多数,所以,民主党在中期选举这件事上翻不起大浪。他们之所以受挫,主要是由于民主党人在参议院的听证会上,对卡瓦诺法官表现出了令人憎恶、不讲道理、不公正和恶毒的一面。很多人因此而反对民主党。更要紧的是,7000名洪都拉斯男青年正向美国边境挺进,这是真真切切的,这是一种非常态的表现,它就像是野蛮的入侵。让我们回顾一下中国的历史,当北方蛮族进入中国的时候,不曾征得中国人的许可,所以后来有了长城,但蛮族依然要来,他们被称作胡虏。 这些数量众多的青壮士兵,来中国是为了赢得荣耀、财富和女人。坦白地说,他们入侵了另一个文明,他们入侵了他国,现在我们开始目睹来自中美洲的入侵。一个新的群体正在洪都拉斯形成,所以说现在有两组人马正向美国逼近。这类入侵行为可能会持续几十年,除非川普能将他们阻止在边境。因此,这不是一个临时性的问题,这是一个长久的难题。与此同时,有四百万符合条件的合法移民想来美国。大部分是亚洲人,其中有很多的中国人,他们来不了,因为南边的非法移民挤占了联邦政府的资源。我们欢迎合法移民,我们每年需要至少一百万移民,其中一半是亚洲移民,我们欢迎他们,我们需要他们,我们需要他们的精力、他们的才能和他们的智慧。 〞
Shawn Steel: 〝Remember, most of American media, most of American entertainment, most of the high-tech community is decidedly to the left, essential anti-middle class, anti-middle American. So their hope was, historically, a new president always loses power in the first Congress in the first midterm. That’s been true for almost 100 years. It’s going to be different. We’re going to pick up strength in the Senate. We have an even shot in the House. So the blue wave turned out to be a blue ripple, if at all. What hurt the Democrats, particularly, is the Kavanaugh hearings for the Supreme Court of the United States. Democrats got so nasty, foul, unfair, and vicious, it turned an awful lot of average people. The bigger story is the 7,000 young men that are marching to the American border from Honduras. This is existential. This is a different type of level. It’s like a barberic invasion that – well, let’s take some Chinese history. When the Mongols came to China, for thousands of years, they didn’t ask permission, yet you built a great wall. But they kept coming. And they’re called a hoard, H-O-A-R-D. There are a number of – huge numbers of young warriors that are looking for fame and fortune and women, frankly, and they invade another civilization. They invade another country. We are now beginning to witness that coming in from Central America, and there’s a new group already forming in Honduras now. So there’s now two groups on the way to the U.S. This will continue for decades unless Trump can stop them at the border. So this is not just a temporary problem. It is a permanent invasion issue, and at the same time, we have 4 million legal, qualified people that want to come to America. Most of them are Asian, many of them Chinese, and they can’t come because of the illegals from south of the border. We want legal immigrants. We need at least a million a year. Half of them are Asians. We want them. We need them. We need to have their energy, their talent, and their brains. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝主流媒体对川普总统的报导,百分之九十二属于负面消息。这会如何影响他的公众支持率?这又会对中期选举产生何种影响?〞
〝 The mainstream media's coverage of President Trump is 92 percent negative. How has it affected his public approval polls? What impact will it have on the midterms?〞

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝这是一个很好的问题。负面的报导肯定对某些人产生影响,包括那些对新闻只是随便听听,但却不求甚解的人。再有就是那些没有主见,一味随大流的人。但是主流媒体掌控美国人思想的能力却在日渐削弱。曾经有百分之九十的美国人仅通过三家主流媒体获得资讯。现在媒体有几百家,《大纪元》、《新唐人》是全新媒体的又一个例子,几百万观众通过他们获得真实的新闻。新闻界正在发生一场革命,所以主流媒体的地位在下降,影响力在弱化。其次,多次民意调查的结果显示,多数美国人不再相信主流媒体,他们认为主流媒体只是宣传工具,他们的看法是正确的。另外,川普使用推特,也有数千家的保守派网站和博客在传递不同的讯息。多数我认识的人已不再依赖《纽约时报》的新闻和《ABC电视台》。他们去《Drudge》、他们去《国家评论》、他们去《大纪元》、他们去《新唐人电视台》、他们通过其它的平台获得真实的信息,这是当下正在发生的,所以主流媒体的影响力较之前小了很多。〞
Shawn Steel: That’s a great question. And of course it’s affected his approval. People that don’t read the news just sort of hear or they think, oh, nobody likes Trump, so I guess I don’t like him. But the days of mainstream media controlling American thought diminishes literally every day. There used to be three networks where 90 percent of Americans watched and got their news. There are now hundreds. 《Epoch》, 《NTD》 is another example of whole new media that millions of people listen to to get honest news. We’re seeing a revolution when it comes to news, so the mainstream media is less relevant and less influential. Secondly, most Americans in multiple polls don’t trust mainstream media. Most Americans now believe it is propaganda. And they are correct. Thirdly, Trump uses the Twitter, there are thousands of conservative websites and blogs that are putting out a completely different story. Most people that I know do not depend on the New York Times for news or ABC TV. They go to 《Drudge》, they go to 《National Review》, they go to《 Epoch》, they go to《 NTD》. They go to other sources for honest information. And that’s what’s happening. So their power is much weaker than it used to be.


下一节, 加州众议员席位争夺战
Coming up: The fight for California’s House seats.


第3部分:加州中期选举
Part 3: Can Democrats Retake the House via California?

众议院有435个席位,其中53个席位在加州。谚语:〝加州引领全国〞。非常适用于这次中期选举,民主党需要重新夺回的众议院席位中的三分之一在加州,加州人如何投票将决定哪一党控制众议院。
The House of Representatives has 435 seats. 53 of those seats are in California. The old saying, 〝So goes California, so goes the nation〞 is relevant for this midterm election. One-third of the seats Democrats need to retake the House are in play in California. How Californians vote could decide which party controls the House.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao): 我访问了加州共和党全国委员会主席,Shawn Steel先生,请他讲他对中期选举的预期。
I asked California Republican National Committeeman Shawn Steel what he thinks will happen.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝民主党需要在众议院重新夺回的席位中的三分之一在加州。你认为民主党会夺到加州的这些席位吗? 〞
〝 One-third of the seats Democrats need to flip to regain the House are in California. Do you think Democrats will overtake those seats in California? 〞

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝我是加利福尼亚人,也是加州的共和党委员。你说的对,他们必须赢得的席位中的三分之一在加州。他们必须赢得加州共和党代表团的一半席位。目前共有14名共和党席位,他们瞄准了其中的七个,但他们不会七场全赢。今天,我认为他们肯定能赢的只是其中的一席,另外三场竞选的结果则难以预料。因此他们不会在加州获得征服众议院的决定性胜利。我们有一个优秀的、年轻的、反共产主义的金映玉,她正竞逐一个我们认为把握不大的席位,她现在领先了。Dana Rohrabacher,我们曾为他担心的新港滩国会议员,他以微势领先。但彭博刚刚投入400万, 一位超级亿万富翁,彭博昨晚刚刚投入400万美元对抗一位国会议员。但新港滩相当保守,到目前为止,民主党人仅在加州就花费了6千万到7千万美元来压制共和党人,那大约是每席位900万,这可是大赌注,九百万美元可以换来极大的权势,但民主党砸六千万到七千万美元竞逐七个国会席位,他们想以这种超强势一锤定音。我们现在并不孤单,我们有自己的‘ 队伍’,我们接地气,我们有自己的选民,我们到处都有竞选指挥中心,这是一场经典的战斗,没有人大幅领先。我认为在七个席位中,有四个是安全的,有三两个处于危险之中,一个可能已无可挽回。所以这对南希来说是未达目的,她将不得不去其它州寻取权力。〞
Shawn Steel: Excellent question. I am Californian. I am the committeeman for the Republican Party from California. And you’re correct. One-third of their possible seats are in California. They would have to win half the Republican delegation. There’s 14 Republicans. They’re targeting seven. They will not win seven. Today, I would say they will win one for sure, and three are undecided. So they’re not going to get enough from California to conquer the House. Chances are we have a good, young, anti-communist Young Kim, who’s running for a seat that we thought we were in trouble. She’s now ahead. Dana Rohrabacher, the Newport Beach congressman we were worried about, he’s slightly ahead, but Bloomberg just put 4 million – a super billionaire, Bloomberg just put $4 million against one congressman last night, Dana Rohrabacher. But Newport Beach is pretty conservative. So the Democrats are spending between 60 to 70 million dollars in California alone to beat up Republicans. That’s about 9 million apiece. This is big stakes. Nine million dollars can buy a lot of power, but when you have 60 to 70 million dollars going after seven congressman, that’s enormously powerful. Now, we’re not alone. We have our own armies, we’re on the ground. We have our own voters. We have headquarters everywhere. It’s a classic battle, and nobody’s ahead decidedly. I would say, of the seven seats, four are safe. Three, two are in danger. One may be lost. So that’s not going to do it for Nancy. She’s going to have to get power in other states.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝你会关注哪场选战?〞
〝 What race will you be watching?〞

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝我将主要关注橙县,我会同时关注全国各地的选情。我将怀着愉悦的心情观看北达科他、田纳西和亚利桑那的参议院席位的选战。我对佛罗里达的进展非常兴奋,对印第安纳和密苏里的选情也同样非常兴奋。好运气可能会不期而至,比仅仅得到四个席位更好,我们可能会增加七个(参议院席位),这可是极具有历史性的。我会为众议院担心,但我最了解加州橙县,所以我要盯着Dana Rohrabacher和金映玉看。〞
Shawn Steel:〝 Well, I’m going to be focusing mostly in Orange County. I’m going to be looking at across the country. I’m going to be looking happily at North Dakota, Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona for U.S. Senate seats. Very excited about Florida. Very excited about Indiana and Missouri. There’s some really good opportunities that might flow our way, much better than just picking up four seats. We may pick up seven. I mean, it could be quite historic. I’ll worry about the House, but I know Orange County, California, the best, so I’m going to be looking at Dana Rohrabacher and Young Kim. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝如果民主党重新夺回众议院,这将如何影响川普总统余下的任期?〞
〝 If Democrats retake the House, how will that affect the rest of President Trump’s term?〞

肖恩・斯蒂尔(共和党全国委员会委员/加州):〝如果民主党在佩洛西的领导下重新得势,就不会再有温和的民主党人。任何声称愿意合作的(都是说谎), 我们在卡瓦诺听证会上看清了这一点,在所有参议员中只有一位民主党人投票支持卡瓦诺。所以他们步调一致,被极左势力所捆绑,在国会是干不成事了。但总统还是有很多权力的,还记得吧,奥巴马在参众两院都被共和党所把持的情况下还是做了很多的事情,他能玩儿得转。川普在外交方面将做出伟大的贡献,经济将持续增长和扩展。除非他们掌控了国会,否则我们不会有新的法案通过。〞
Shawn Steel:〝 If the Democrats take over under Pelosi, there’s no such thing as a moderate Democrat. Anybody that says they’re willing to reach across the aisles – we saw that in the Kavanaugh hearings. Of all the Senators, only one Democrat voted for Kavanaugh. So they’re lockstep, tied down by the far left … Not much will happen in Congress, but the president will have a lot of power. Remember, Obama did pretty well with a Republican Congress in both houses. He did pretty well. And Trump is going to do great things in foreign policy. The economy’s going to continue to grow and expand. We are not going to get new laws passed,that’s only if they captured the house. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao): 2016年的总统大选结果对主流媒体和美国大部分地区来说都是一个难以预料的震惊,也许这次中期选举会带来再次震惊。您怎么看?请别忘了投出自己的一票。感谢您观看《世事关心》,我是萧茗,我们下次再见。
The 2016 presidential election was a big surprise to mainstream media and much of the country. Maybe the midterms will have their own surprises. What do you think? Thanks for watching 《Zooming In》. I’m Simone Gao. See you next time.


End

====================================
Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao, Michelle Wan, Jess Beatty, Thomas Del Beccaro
Editors:Julian Kuo, Bonnie Yu, Melodie Von, York Du
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Cameraman:York Du, Wei Wu
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang, Juan Li, Xiaofeng Zhang, Guiru Zhang
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer: Bin Tang, Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com

New Tang Dynasty Television
October 30, 2018
====================================

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发表时间: 2018-11-01 01:28 PM

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