【世事关心】贸易战的真正要害

【新唐人2019年05月08日讯】【世事关心】贸易战的真正要害:川普周日在推特发文将提高2000亿中国商品征税的税率至25%后,引起全球市场的波动,中国股市连同人民币在几小时之内大跌,股市损失了2.8万亿人民币,人民币贬值了1.3%,这是一月十日以来的最低值。

川普总统对中国又一次采取了强硬态度,这是正确的做法吗?中美贸易谈判的最后关头将会发生什么?习近平几乎接受美国所有要求之后,过去的几个月,中国方面又发生了什么?美国是否有一小段窗口可以对中共施加最大压力?谁是中共在美最大说客?

美中正在进行最终一轮的贸易谈判。中国大陆经济正在从崩溃的边缘开始逐步改善。美中双方能否就贸易问题达成全面协议?中共会遵守吗?

The U.S. and China have entered into the final phase of trade talks while China has risen from a near collapse of its economy. Is a sweeping trade agreement still possible and will it be honored by China?

章家敦(专栏作家/中国问题专家):“我认为北京无意履行在改变经济结构上所作的承诺。”

Gordon Chang:“ I don’t think Beijing has any intention of honoring his promises on changing the structure of its economy. ”

华尔街是竭力促成中美双方达成贸易协议的最大推手之一,这是出于什么原因?

Narration: One of the biggest proponents of a trade deal between the two countries is Wall Street. Why?

罗杰·罗伯逊(布拉格安全研究所总裁):“在我国资本市场上的中国公司有很多。我们发现有600-650家,甚至更多。”

Roger Roberson: “The number of companies that are in our capital markets today that are Chinese, we find that some 600 over 650 such enterprises are there. ”

Bannon: Do you think for a second, that these people do not fully understand what’s going on? Of course they do. But they have a hard calling, and that’s money.

史蒂夫·班农(前白宫首席幕僚):“你真的以为华尔街那些人不了解实情吗?他们当然非常了解。但是他们面对的是金钱的诱惑。”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“当时我联想到1989年里根总统。 我想知道,当你说‘我们能把他们一锅端’,具体是什么意思呢?”

Simone:“ At that moment I thought about 1989, Ronald Reagan, you know he doubled down SDI after he walked away from Gorbachev and stuff. I even did a program comparing these two historic moment: Trump’s trade war and the 1989 moment. So I want to ask you what you mean exactly when you said we can take down the whole thing. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎来到《世事关心》,我是萧茗。今早正当我要录制这个开场白时,川普总统发布推特。川普总统的推特完全改变了美中贸易谈判最后阶段的走向。总统写到,在2000亿美元中国产品上的10%税率将升至25%。他还写到:与中国的贸易协议仍在进行,但是进展太慢。他们想重新谈判,没门!中国股市连同人民币在几小时内大跌。股市损失了2.8万亿人民币,人民币贬值了1.3%,到了6.8218人民币对换一美元,这是一月十日以来的最低值。总统对中国采取了又一次强硬态度。这是正确做法吗?中美贸易会谈的最后关头将会发生什么?习近平几乎接受所有美国要求之后,过去的几个月,中国方面又发生了什么?美国是否有一小段窗口可以对中共施加最大压力? 谁是中共在美最大说客?在这一期《世事关心》,我们探讨这些内容。

Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. A Tweet from President Trump came in yesterday morning while I was preparing to record these opening remarks. His tweet changed the entire dynamic of the final phase of the U.S. China trade talks. The president wrote that the U.S. would raise the tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods, from 10% to  25%. He also wrote: “The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!” Chinese stocks tumbled along with the yuan a few hours after this tweet. The stock market lost 2.8 trillion yuan in value and the offshore yuan fell as much as 1.3 percent to 6.8218 per dollar, its lowest since Jan. 10,. The president is taking yet another tough stance on China. Is this the correct position? What is going to happen at the final phase of the U.S.-China trade talk? What really happened on China’s side in the past few months after Xi Jinping accepted almost all U.S. demands? Is there a small window where the U.S. can give China the maximum pressure? and who is the biggest lobbyist for the CCP in the U.S.? In this edition of Zooming In, we will explore these questions.

难得的机会
Part 1: A rare opportunity

五月一日,美国贸易谈判团队从北京回国,从刚刚结束的最新谈判中带回三个关键信息:1. 在几个礼拜之内,双方有望就美中贸易谈判达成最终协议;2. 中国方面对于关键行业的政府补贴问题,仍未解决;3. 关税作为一种迫使北京遵守承诺的方法,双方就立即取消或保持现存关税仍存异议。

On May 1, the U.S. trade team returned home from the latest negotiations in Beijing with three key messages: One, both sides are hopeful that a final U.S.-China trade deal could be struck in a couple of weeks; two: China’s subsidies to key industries remain unresolved; and three, the two sides disagree on whether to immediately remove existing tariffs or keep them in place as an enforcement measure to make sure Beijing honors its word.

美国贸易谈判代表罗伯特·莱特希泽周二告诉参议院委员会,“许多主要问题尚待解决”、“如果这些问题不能以有利于美国的方式得到解决,我们不会达成协议”。

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told a Senate committee on Tuesday that “There still are major, major issues that have to be resolved”, “and if those issues are not resolved in a way that’s beneficial to the United States, we will not have an agreement”.

五月八日,中国副总理刘鹤将率100人代表团赴华府参加又一轮谈判。主要新闻机构预期美国可能接受谈判条款,而这些条款并非最初期望达成的大获全胜。

Narration: On May 8, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will lead more than 100 officials to Washington for another round of negotiations. Major news outlets predicted a likely deal and the U.S. may accept terms less sweeping than it had originally sought.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普总统发推之后,贸易谈判是否能赢得压倒性胜利,媒体想法可能有所不同了。这里《世事关心》愿意指出,四个月之前,我们报道G20峰会中川习会,那时中国方面调子大不一样。习近平做出一副他会做一切事情证明自己的诚意,接受一切美国鹰派要求的样子,为的是在2000亿中国出口产品征收关税上,让美国回心转意。在G20峰会之后的一个新闻发布简报会上,美国国家经济委员会主任拉里·库德洛,是这么说的:

After President Trump’s tweet, the media might have changed their minds on whether the U.S. will accept a less sweeping deal. What 《Zooming In》 wants to point out here is that 4 months ago, when we covered the Trump, Xi summit at G20,  the dynamic of the talk was quite different. Back then, Chinese president Xi Jinping gave the impression that he did everything to prove his sincerity and accepted almost whatever the American hawks demanded in order to prevent imminent U.S. tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods. At a press briefing after the G20 summit, Larry Kudlow, the director of the national economic council, said this:

Larry Kudlow(拉里·库德洛/美国国家经济委员会主任):“这次会晤涉及的话题很广也很具体,这种情形我们以前从来没遇到过。另外,我们也从来没有见过习近平这样亲力亲为。事实上,晚宴非常棒。”

Larry Kudlow: “This one covers so much ground and so much detail. We’ve never seen this before. And furthermore, we’ve never seen the hands-on participation by President Xi before. In fact, that dinner was quite remarkable.”

根据美国贸易团队的看法,这次会议不仅涵盖大量领域,而且中国方面使用一个重要词语:“立刻”。

According to the American team, not only was substantial ground covered in the meeting, but the Chinese team used an important word: “immediately.”

Larry Kudlow(拉里·库德洛/美国国家经济委员会主任):“当我们见到副总理刘鹤的时候,他说了几次(这一点我也督促过他),在关税和非关税壁垒方面,以及过后将要谈到的其它结构性问题,中国都在发生著变化。”

Larry Kudlow: “when we met with Vice Premier Liu He, he said several times—and I pushed him on this—that the China changes, with respect to tariffs and non-tariff barriers and other structural issues that we’ll get into in a few moments, would begin immediately. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):G20峰会的最大成果是:双方同意暂时停火90天,为接下来的会谈做准备。若未达成协议,对价值2000亿美元的中国商品征税将于3月1日生效。但是,到3月底的时候,截止期限再一次推迟。4月底,两国代表再次见面的时候,中国一方表面上已经不再提“立即”二字了。中方原来的那种急迫感似乎消失了。那么,几个月来究竟发生了什么事情呢?

The biggest outcome of the G20 meeting was that the two parties agreed to a temporary ceasefire for 90 days in order for negotiations to continue. If no agreement could be reached, the tariffs on 200 Billion dollars of Chinese goods would take effect on March 1. However, that deadline was again postponed as March approached. When the two countries met again at the end of April,  no words such as “immediately” surfaced from the Chinese, and the sense of emergency seemed to have disappeared from the Chinese side. What happened during the past few months?

三月,为了刺激经济,中国总理李克强宣布减税二万亿元,数万亿基础建设投资,以及对中小企业贷款增加30%。这些措施已经产生效果。中国出口超出预期,房地产销售上升,股市一月到四月跃升33%,外汇储量去年同比增加85.8亿美元,自去年年底经历动荡以来。

In March, in an attempt to stimulate the economy, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced a tax cut of 2 trillion yuan, a multi- trillion Yuan infrastructure investment and increased loans to small and medium-sized enterprises by 30%. These measures have yielded results. China’s exports exceeded expectation. Real Estate sales went up, the Stock market jumped 33% from January to April and Foreign exchange reserves marked a 8.58 billion dollar increase compared to the same period last year.

中国经济已经极大稳定下来。

The Chinese economy has largely been stabilized from the turmoil it experienced at the end of last year.

过去三年,中国经济所有部门都经历痛苦的去杠杆。此举为了削减债务和投机性投资。中国公司借投机性投资短时间内积累大量财富。中国政府于2008年经济危机中实施的四万亿刺激计划,极大鼓励了投机性投资。投入市场的货币,造成高通胀以及遍及中国的巨大债务问题。

In the past three years, China was going through a painstaking de-leveraging in all sectors of its economy. That was to cut down debt and speculative investment, a widespread practice by Chinese companies to accumulate great wealth in a short period of time. This behavior was largely prompted by the Chinese government’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan during the 2008 global financial crisis. The amount of currency issued to the market caused high inflation and huge debt problems throughout China.

当2018年4月,川普总统对中国展开贸易战,中国深陷去杠杆进程。到2018年12月,大部分A股上市公司市值下跌80%,中国经济濒临崩溃。

When President Trump started the trade war against China in April 2018, China was deep in deleveraging. As of the end of December 2018, the market value of most listed companies in A-shares fell by 80%, the Chinese economy nearly collapsed.

就在那时G20川习会上,习近平答应了几乎所有美国方面的要求,而美国同意停火并且推迟征收2000亿美元中国产品的关税,不是一次,而是两次。这给予中国经济至关重要的喘息之机。市场信心迅速恢复,经济数字随之恢复。

Precisely then, Trump and Xi met at G20 when Xi agreed to almost all US demands, and in turn, America agreed to a ceasefire and postponed tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese imports, not once, but twice. This gave the Chinese economy  critical breathing room. Confidence was quickly restored and so were the numbers.

根据中信投资公司专家的说法,金融领域去杠杆将于2019年底实现,非金融领域去杠杆将于2020年实现。

According to top experts from China International Trust Investment Corporation, deleveraging will be realized at the end of 2019 in the financial sector and early 2020 for non-financial sectors.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):虽然未来还有问题,但中国正在按照计划或先于计划完成去杠杆和稳定经济。中国成功的在最脆弱时说服美国暂缓施加关税。而同时,美国国内对于要求川普总统与中国达成协议的压力逐渐增加。谁是这种协议的推手?在最近一次“当前中国危险委员会”的活动中,金融安全专家罗杰·罗伯逊指出,一个集团越来越与中国公司纠缠不清。罗杰·罗伯逊当年帮助里根政府塑造了摧垮苏联的金融政策。

While problems still lie ahead, China is now on or ahead of schedule for completing the deleveraging and stabilizing of its economy. It has successfully persuaded the U.S. to pause tariffs at its most vulnerable moment while domestic pressure for President Trump to make a deal with China is increasing. Who are the proponents of such a deal? At a recent event by the organization “Committee on the Present Danger: China”, Roger Robinson, an expert on financial security, who helped craft Ronald Reagan’s policy for dismantling the Soviet Union, pointed out one group that is getting increasingly Intertwined with Chinese companies.

罗杰·罗伯逊(布拉格安全研究所总裁):“我们看看我们资本市场中国公司的数目,我们发现有大概600家,超过650家公司。纽约股票交易所有86家,纳斯达克有62家,场外交易市场有超过500家。你知道,场外交易市场对那些规避透明性和公开性要求的公司来说,是受监管最少和最受欢迎的。所以这里有各种各样的公司。其中很多往好里说是高风险实体,往坏里说,说白了是恶意玩家。我说的是各种危害国家安全的还有侵犯人权的公司。我们可以谈谈几个确实的例子。很不幸,涉及的金额不是几千万美元,我们说的是几千亿美元,很快会发展到一万亿美元。这些恶意玩家正在大量吸引那些不够精明的投资人的资金。美国现在有多少投资人在这些金融市场里?一亿八千万到两亿。我不知道具体数目。你能意识到数字高的吓人。中国公司正在快速进入我们的市场融资,他们不顾一切的进入你的市场,你看到数万亿美元在未来两到三年涌入我们的市场,到达这样一个程度,可以想象的是,一天早上美国人醒来,发现他们中国的金融资产占他们退休账户投资组合的12%,15%,17%, 这样高的比例被中国的金融资产占据,你知道那时候会怎样?我们今天知道的中国说客,和那时候将要发生的事情比,不过是小巫见大巫。这些人认识到,如果美国对中国的各种恶行进行处罚或制裁,都可能而且将会使他们自己的资产贬值或者损失。”

“So when we look at, um, the number of companies that are in our capital markets today that are Chinese, we find that some 600 over 650 such enterprises are there. They’re probably around 86 in the New York Stock Exchange, 62 in, uh, in Nasdaq and over 500 in the, over the counter market, which is, as you know, the least regulated and the most popular for those seeking to skirt transparency and disclosure requirements. So here is a, a wide spectrum of companies. Many of them would be seen politely put as as high risk entities, less politely put or outright bad actors. And I’m talking about national security abusers of all stripe as well as human rights abusers. And we can talk about some hard examples of this, but we’re not unfortunately talking about a few tens of millions of dollars. We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars and moving rapidly toward $1 trillion dollars. Now that’s a lot of financing that’s being attracted from unwitting American investors. How many people, how many people do we have in our country, in the markets today? 180 million and 200 million Americans. I don’t know the number of but. You can appreciate that it’s disturbingly high and when you look at the pace at which the Chinese are coming into our markets for dollar financing at which they’re desperate for you, you start to see a trend where trillions of dollars are going to flow into our markets over the next two to three years to such an extent that there it is conceivable that one morning the American people wake up and find whether it’s 12% 15% 17% some high number of their investment portfolios of their retirement portfolios are Chinese securities. Well guess what happens that day? The China lobby, as we know it today, appears to be a trivial asterisk next to what’s coming when, again, these folks realize that any American penalties or sanctions toward China based on it’s malevolent behavior could and probably would devalue or damage the value.”

这种关系是双向的。 高盛(Goldman Sachs)、JP摩根(JP Morgan)、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)、黑石(Blackstone)等公司都在中国有巨大投资。美国的主要大公司,如苹果、沃尔玛、波音、英特尔、高通等美国大公司都在中国取得了巨大的财富。 大量中共高干的家庭成员为这些公司工作。 而这些拥有巨额财富的红色家族也向美国股票市场投入了大量资金。华尔街与共产党政权之间的关系有多接近? 前白宫首席幕僚和前高盛执行官史蒂夫·班农说:

This relationship goes both ways. Major Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, JPMorgan Chase, Blackstone and etc. all have significant investment in China.  Major American corporations such as Apple, Wal-Mart, Boeing, Intel, Qualcomm have all made great fortunes in China. A large number of family members of top Communist Cadres work for these companies. And these red families with great wealth also have immense investment in the American stock market etc. How close is the relationship between Wall Street and the Chinese Communist Party? Former White House Chief strategist and former Goldman Sachs executive Steve Bannon said this:

史蒂夫·班农(前白宫首席幕僚):“关于习近平,你应该记得当他在达沃斯的时候,他们都坐在那里。你知道所有麦肯锡公司的人,所有博思艾伦咨询公司的人,所有的律师事务所,所有的会计师事务所(高盛是我以前工作的地方),他们所有的商业银行,他们上了世界上最好的学校,在世界上聪明程度最高的地方上班,他们动动手指头就能得到全部的资讯。今天你告诉我,他们不知道维族人的事,不知道地下基督教会的事,不知道达赖喇嘛,不知道社会信用评分系统,不知道中国人民被奴役的事实。他们有什么不知道的啊?他们是视而不见!”

“What Xi, and you gotta remember when he’s at Davos and they’re all sitting there you know all the McKinsey guys all the Booz Allen guys all the law firms all the accounting firms Goldman Sachs my old firm all the commercial banks all of them, they’ve went to the best schools in the world they work in the smartest place in the world they’ve got total information at their fingertips. You’re telling me they don’t know about the Uyghurs. They don’t know about the underground Christian church you know about the underground Catholic Church. They don’t know about the Dalai Lama. They don’t know about the social credit score. They do not know about the enslavement of the Chinese people. Sure they know and they don’t care. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):班农甚至说,美国公司是中共的游说部门。华尔街是中共的投资关系公司。请看这一段班农在CNBC电视台节目里的激烈言论:

Host: Bannon went so far as to say Corporate America is the lobbying arm for the Chinese Communist Party and that Wall Street is their investment relations firm. Listen to this heated discussions Bannon had on CNBC.

CNBC:“美国大公司真的在资助中共?”

CNBC: “Really? Corporate America is funding the Chinese Communist Party?”

史蒂夫·班农(前白宫首席幕僚):“ 100%。顺便说一下,中国共产党在中国的整个运作都是由华尔街资助的,凯尔可以给你介绍其中细节。请记住,PBS或NPR前几天有报导,是关于中共侵入和窃取美国公司知识产权的事情。 这两家媒体和财政部的官员讨论过,他们也访问了大约200家公司,没有一家公司想要对中共提出指控,因为他们不想失去进入中国大陆市场的机会。今天的美国商界是中国共产党的游说部门,华尔街是投资关系部门。你在特朗普总统的贸易谈判中看到了这一点,我说这是经济战争的停战协定。当刘鹤来到美国时,他先去了哪里,他去见了:两个月前吃过午饭的,他来的第一天和民意代表、公关公司、以及中国(美国)最大公司的总裁和首席运营官们共进午餐,为的是向特朗普总统施压。 逼特朗普总统达成协议的所有压力不是来自中国,而是来自华尔街和美国商界。”

Steve Bannon: “100%. By the way, the entire operation of the Chinese Communist Party in China is funded by Wall Street, which Kyle can walk through with you how they are funded by wall street. Remember, PBS or NPR had this thing the other day about intrusions and stealing intellectual property in American companies. They talked to our treasury official and they went around 200 companies, not one company wants to press charges because they didn’t want to be blocked out of China. Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investment relations department. You see this on President Trump’s trade negotiations which I say is the armistice on the economic war. When Liu He came to the United States where does he go first. He goes to meet…had a lunch about two months ago… He comes the first day he had lunch with the representatives, the government affairs guys, the COOs and the presidents of the biggest companies in China (America) to put pressure on President Trump. All the pressure coming for President Trump to get a deal is not from the Chinese, is from Wall Street is from industrial America.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):关于华尔街对于美中贸易谈判影响到何种程度,我采访了罗杰·罗伯逊。

I asked Roger Roberson the same question: how much pressure does President Trump receive from Wall Street on the U.S. – China trade talks.

罗杰·罗伯逊(布拉格安全研究所总裁):“关于贸易谈判,总统受到来自多个游说团体前所未有的压力。从农业到华尔街的融资金融家。我完全相信,游说到这个程度,特别是金融方面的游说群体,说明有一个巨大的群体希望达成贸易协定,无论那个协定内容是什么,而且要快,所以我认为这里有巨大利益。但是大多数人很少把中国在美国资本市场的行为与贸易谈判联系在一起。我认为华尔街在中国方面收取钜额费用。他们在某些案子上谋求巨大回报。所以他们非常热心,你可以看到很多中国公司被加入摩根斯坦利资本新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Market Index),最近是加入彭博巴克利全球汇总指数。”

Roger:  “It’s a matter of record that the president has been under a great deal of pressure on the trade talks from various lobbies. Everything from agriculture to finance financiers on Wall Street. So I do believe that this level of engagement particularly on the financial side is such that there is a huge constituency that wants a trade agreement. Almost irrespective of its content. And soon. So I do think there is a great interest there but there is relatively little connection. Between China’s activities in the capital markets and the trade talks in the minds of most people. I think that Wall Street is making huge fees on the China dimension. And they are seeing some impressive returns in some cases as well. So there’s great enthusiasm and you can see it in the number of Chinese companies that are being added to the MSCI Emerging Market Index. And more recently the Bloomberg Barclays Global aggregate index.”

接下来,中国共产党能否得到信任?
Coming up, can the Chinese Communist Party ever be trusted?

我们能相信中共吗?
Part 2: Can CCP Ever Be Trusted?

2018年10月9日,总统助理兼贸易和产业政策顾问彼得·纳瓦罗博士,在战略和国际研究中心回顾了近年来中方对美许下的各种承诺:

On Oct. 9, 2018, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dr. Peter Navarro, assistant to the President and Director of Trade and Industrial Policy recounted The promises China has made to the U.S. in recent years.

彼得纳瓦罗(总统助理/贸易和产业政策顾问):“我们看看中国玩了什么把戏。他们曾把布什政府的人玩得团团转,在经济对话上像是跳踢踏舞,这就是他们想干的一切。他们想把我们带到谈判桌前,讲得头头是道,但是真和我们打交道的时候还是我行我素。如果你想和他们达成协议,这些你都需要知道。2015年,一位中共高级官员答应了奥巴马两件事。两件事,这位中共官员同意南中国海不搞军事化。但是,不到两年那些岛屿就武装到了牙齿。  他们同意的第二件事是停止黑客入侵美国企业,好,他们大概停了半年,现在美国政府可以非常明确的告诉你:中国人的骇客侵入又开始了。他们真的这么干,快追上我们了。”

Peter Navarro: “The game that China has played—and they played people in the Bush administration like a violin—is to do the tap dance of economic dialogue. That’s all they want to do. They want to get us to the bargaining table, sound reasonable, and talk their way while they keep having their way with us. And this is—this is—I mean, look, here’s all you need to know when you think about the prospect of a deal, OK? We had a high-ranking member of the Chinese government agree with Barack Obama on two things back in 2015. Two things, OK? The Chinese official agreed to no militarization of the South China Sea. Within two years those artificial islands were armed to the teeth. The second thing that official agreed to was to stop hacking American businesses. Yeah, well, that lasted about six months, and now the U.S. government will tell you unequivocally that those hacks are back up, they’re serious, and they’re coming to get us.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):熟悉中共历史的人,都不会对中共的欺骗行为感到意外。中共一贯如此。二战之后,中共就是靠欺骗在内战中打败了自己的主要对手国民党。

To people who are familiar with the history of the Chinese Communist Party, this behavior is not surprising. It has been consistent throughout its history. In the wake of the second World War, this is one of the key tactics the CCP used to defeat the Kuomintang to take control of China.

1945年日本战败。国共两党随即重开了全面内战。中华民国政府是当时得到国际承认的合法的中国政府。原先弱小的中共军队,在内战中很快发展壮大,最后打败了国民党。国民党失败的原因很多。中共在内战中一再运用的主要策略之一,就是所谓“和谈”。中共一旦陷入危机,他们就与国民党展开“和谈”。这种“和谈”一个举行了3次。在1945年举行的最后一次“和谈”中,国共双方达成协议,确认了中华民国政府的合法地位,双方还同意结束内战。中共撕毁了这项协议,重启了内战直到把国民党赶出了大陆。

After the Japanese were defeated in 1945. A Full-scale civil war between the Communists and the Chinese Nationalists represented by the KMT resumed. The KMT was the official Chinese government recognized by the international community at the time. The Communist army, previously a minor faction, grew rapidly in influence and power and eventually defeated the KMT. There are many reasons why the KMT was defeated, but one of the main tactics that the Communists used repeatedly during the civil war was the so called “Cooperation talks”. What happened was that whenever the Communists were on the verge of losing, they initiated the so called “Peace Talks’ or “Cooperation Talks” with the KMT. There were three such “cooperation” talks altogether. The agreement from the last talk in 1945 recognized the legal state of the KMT government, and agreed to end the civil war. The Communist Party did not honor that agreement and kept fighting until they expelled the KMT from mainland China.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):自那以来,中国夺取政权。现在,川普政府要求美中贸易关系做出结构性改变。这实质上是要求中共改变他们整个经济运行的办法,他们统治国家的办法,其实就是某种程度的政治体制改革。我问章家敦,一位专栏作家和中国专家,中国是否会这样做,他回答如下:

The CCP has been in power ever since.  Today, the Trump administration demanded structural changes to the U.S.-China trade relations. This was essentially asking the CCP to change the way it runs its economy, the way it runs its country and basically a political reform of some sort. I asked Gordon Chang, a columnist and China expert if China will really do it, and he said this.

章家敦(专栏作家/中国问题专家):“北京不会兑现改革经济结构的承诺。 别忘了,习近平坚信国有企业垄断经济命脉。他上台以来,出现了所谓‘国进民退’的现象,外资企业和民企都在失去生存空间。所以在贸易谈判中,我们要求中共完全改变国有企业垄断经济命脉的局面,建立真正的市场经济。中共不可能接受这一改革要求。习近平不会同意。依我看,贸易谈判无法迫使中共改革经济体制。我们和中共有许多贸易协议,中共无一遵守。 习近平是个毛派,相信国家掌控一切,他主政下的中共不会遵守协议。”

Gordon Chang: “I don’t think Beijing has any intention of honoring his promises on changing the structure of its economy. Remember, Xi Jinping believes in a state dominated system. And during his tenure, we’ve seen state enterprises crowd out the private sector, not just foreign companies, but also the domestic Chinese private sector. So what we’re asking for in our trade talks with the Chinese is for them to completely change the state dominated system and go to a free market economy. That’s just impossible. Xi Jinping is not going to do that. So I don’t think that we can change China with a trade agreement. We had so many trade agreements with the Chinese and they violated them all. Why would they start honoring their deals under Xi jinping who is a believer of the Maoist state dominated China?”

接下来:贸易战的最终目地应该是什么?
Coming up, what should the end goal of the trade war be?

里根的针对苏联的经济战争
Part 3: Reagan’s Economic Warfare against the Soviet Union

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):33年前当里根总统认识到苏联经济是多么脆弱,苏联是多么害怕他的星球大战计划时,他毫不犹豫地采取了摧毁苏联的行动。人们从里根这里能学到什么? 让我们回顾一下20世纪80年代发生的事情。

32 years ago, when President Reagan gained insight into how vulnerable the Soviet Union’s economy was and how they feared his SDI program, he didn’t hesitate to make a decisive move to bring down the whole thing. Is Reagan’s rationale still relevant today? Let’s revisit what happened in the 1980s.

到1986年冬天,里根总统在与苏联的冷战中取得了长足的进展。里根同意丘吉尔的观点,即苏联在与其它国家打交道时,只尊重实力和决心。

By the winter of 1986, President Reagan had come a long way in combating the Soviet Union during the cold war. Reagan agreed with Churchill that the Soviet Union only respected strength and resolve in their dealings with other nations.

里根总统启动了耗资数十亿美元的美国战略部队现代化项目,让当时在军力上一度落后的美国,重新获得了对苏军事优势。其中包括战略防御计划(SDI),也被称为星球大战计划,旨在使核武器失效和过时。苏联被迫跟进“星球大战计划”而导致破产。苏联的国防开支增加了45%。他们还受到里根其他措施的影响。由于里根提高沙特石油产量的策略,苏联的石油出口额下降了数十亿美元。苏联不得不多支出数十亿美元来支持第三世界的独裁者。苏联输掉了这场竞赛。

President Reagan started a multi-billion-dollar modernization of U.S. strategic forces to regain a milit ary advantage over the then more powerful Soviet Union. Among those efforts was the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), also known as Star Wars, an initiative aimed at rendering nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete. While trying to keep up with the Star Wars program the Soviets went bankrupt. The Soviet Union increased defense spending by 45 percent. They also suffered from Reagan’s other measures. They lost billions in oil sales thanks to Reagan’s strategy in boosting Saudi oil production. They had to spend billions more on third world dictators. They could not keep up.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):毫不夸张地说,里根总统的经济战摧垮了苏联。我们能从里根总统那里学到什么?10个月前,我看到了史蒂夫·班农的这段视频,他当时在Delivering Alpha会议上接受采访,让我联想到里根总统在1987年对当时局势的考量。请看。

it is not an over statement that President Reagan’s economic warfare brought the Soviet Union down. Is his thinking still relevant today? Ten months ago, I came across this short video of Steve Bannon being interviewed at the Delivering Alpha conference. It reminded me of Reagan’s thinking in 1987. Take a look.

史蒂夫·班农(前白宫首席幕僚):“不仅是贸易,而是贸易的广度与深度。川普的推进方式,他说,这是500亿(征收25%关税),这是2000亿(征收10%关税),如果你敢报复,再加2000亿,这样的方式,如果你报复,那么可能再加上的是5000亿(征收25%关税)。川普谈到的征收目标可能是5000亿美元的产品。这只是一个手段。301贸易条款是应付硅谷找我们解决的问题,不是技术盗窃,是强制技术转让。第三部分是中兴公司,我们可以干脆废了它。”

Steve Bannon:“ It is not just the trade, it is the scale and the depth of the trade. In the way Trump propose it, he says, it is 50, it is 200, another 200 hundred if you retaliate, and by the way, if you even retaliate again, it maybe another 500. He is talking about now maybe a half trillion dollars. That’s just one. The 301s is what the silicon valley came to us about. It is not the technology theft, it is the forced technology transfers, the third part is ZTE, we can basically impluck these companies..”

MSNBC主持人:“我准备让这个更激烈些。”

MSNBC host:“ I am trying to game this up.”

史蒂夫·班农(前白宫首席幕僚):“是的,这就是一盘游戏。现在,我们正向一个点上汇聚,他们清楚我们可以把他们一锅端,他们不堪一击。”

Steve Bannon: “yeah, this is the game. Right now, we are converging on a point and they understand this, we can take the whole thing down. We can take the whole built on the house of sand…”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“我们能把他们一锅端。”我一直想问他是什么意思。所以在当下危机中国的活动上我就问了他这个问题。

We can take the whole thing down. I always wanted to ask Bannon what he meant by that so I did at the Present Danger: China event:

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“在你的那次采访中,你说到我们能把他们一锅端。我们能把他们一锅端,我们不知道你是否还记得这句话,但是让我很吃惊。当时我联想到1989年里根总统,他拒绝了戈尔巴乔夫之后就加强了战略防御计划。我做了一期节目比较川普贸易战和1989时刻。我想知道当你说‘我们能把他们一锅端’,具体是什么意思呢?”

Simone: “One thing you said during that interview is we can take down the whole thing. We can take down the whole thing. I don’t know if you still remember it, but that line just struck me. At that moment I thought about 1989, Ronald Reagan, you know he doubled down SDI after he walked away from Gorbachev and stuff. I even did a program comparing these two historic moment: Trump’s trade war and the 1989 moment. So I want to ask you what you mean exactly when you said we can take down the whole thing. ”

史蒂夫·班农(前白宫首席幕僚):“就像1989年一样。记得苏联解体是因为西方施加了压力,但主要是东欧、俄罗斯以及苏联其他地区被奴役的人民把这个体系摧垮的。他们终于到了忍无可忍的地步了。整个体系在几个月之后就崩溃了。这很富戏剧性。你知道,一枪不发。极权分子奴役中国人民的方式,同样也在这里发生。摧毁这种奴役,中国人必须要行动起来,西方世界也需要行动。我想你会看到西方世界开始团结,不仅是川普总统的贸易战,现在他们在参与对抗中国的贸易战。这是一个因素。另一个因素是军事上的,只是我们注意到,像中国南海、东海、台湾防卫、香港防卫、香港人民维权、我们关注的条约的履行程度。你知道,一国两制,完全被抛到脑后,对吧?香港人民正在被奴役,中国大陆的人也会站起来,因为他们渴望自由。他们明白自由对他们意味着什么,对吧?他们能够拥有巨大的经济力量。所以我认为西方正面临是一个可能崩盘的系统,我认为所有极权核心、中共、以及它控制下的一切都会崩溃。你可以看到法治、民主,这一切都会发生在中国人身上。”

Steven Bannon: “it’s just like 1989. Remember the Soviet Union collapsed because the West put pressure, but it was the people in slave in Eastern Europe and Russia and the rest of the Soviet Union that brought the system down. At some point of the day they said, we’re not gonna do this anymore. And the whole system collapsed in a couple of months.  it was so dramatic. you know, no shots fired. The way that the radical cadre that has enslaved the Chinese people, and that’s what happened here. They’ve enslaved the Chinese people. The way to bring it down is the Chinese people have to do that, and what the West has to do, and I think you’re seeing start to come together, not just president Trump’s trade, you know, now to engage in this confrontation China’s had in this trade war. That’s one element. The other element is to militarily, to least be aware like in the South China Sea, the East China sea, in the defense of Taiwan, the defense of Hong Kong, the rights of the people in Hong Kong, the implementation of the deal that we caught in, you know, the one nation, two systems, which is being totally thrown out the door, right? The Hong Kong people are now being enslaved, the people in China will stand up because they want freedom. They understand what they can do with freedom, right? the great economic powerhouse they can have. And so I think it’s come upon the west to a system of that, and that I think the whole thing can collapse, I think the entire radical Cadre, the CCP, the whole thing can collapse. You can see rule of law, you can see democracy, you can see all of it come to the Chinese people. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):斯蒂夫·班农欢迎川普总统提高在2000亿美元中国产品上的关税,称这是川普当选总统以来最重要的一天。美中贸易战在中国经济最脆弱时,打了中国一个措手不及。贸易战揭示了比贸易更为深层的问题,其结果可能也远远超过贸易本身。这全看人们如何把握这个历史时机了。《世事关心》将带给您有关美中贸易战的独到视角,敬请关注。请在twitter告诉我您的想法, @zoominginSimone,您也可以在《世事关心》脸书专页或者我们的youtube频道留言,他们的名字都是:Zooming In with Simone Gao,让我们下次再见。

Steve Bannon applauded President Trump’s increase of tariffs on  200 billion dollars of Chinese goods, saying this is the biggest day of his presidency. The U.S. – China trade war caught China off guard when it was in its most vulnerable economic moment. The trade war speaks to much deeper issues than trade and the result of it could also go much further beyond trade as well. It all depends on how this historical moment is being handled. Stay tuned, Zooming In will bring you perspectives on the U.S. – China trade war you won’t see anywhere else. Let me know what you think on twitter @zoominginSimone. You can also join the conversation on our facebook page or subscribe to our youtube channel at Zooming In with Simone Gao. Until next time, Goodbye.

 


End

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Producer:Simone Gao

Writer:Simone Gao,  Katherine Hu

Editors:Julian Kuo, Bonnie Yu, Frank Lin, Melodie Von, York Du

Narrator: Rich Crankshaw

Transcription: Jim  Battaglini

Translation:Greg Yang,  Juan Li, Xiaofeng Zhang, Charles Hugo

Cameraman:Wei Wu, Jimmy Xie, York Du

Special Effects:Harrison Sun

Assistant producer: Bin Tang,  Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com

Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television

《Zooming In》

May, 2019

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