【新唐人2014年08月08日讯】有关中共高层将如何处置周永康，成为观察中国时局走向的焦点。周永康案件，是否将比照中共前重庆市委书记薄熙来的处理模式“去政治化”﹖或是提高级别，甚至有可能放周一马﹖一起来看看专家的分析。
前《中国改革》杂志社社长李伟东，8月2号在纽约的一个时政讨论会上，就周永康案件后续的各种问题，发表了他的分析和评论。
《美国之音》6号引述李伟东的分析，报导表示，中共高层将如何处置周永康？仍存在很大变数，但有两种可能，就是党纪、党籍处分，和走司法途径。而走司法途径的可能性比较高。他说，如果走司法程序，一定会“去政治化”处理。会参照薄熙来案，最后可能仅限于他个人的贪腐和其他刑事犯罪。“最多提升一个级别，判处死缓”。
也就是说，有关周永康与薄熙来密谋取代习近平，自己做“太上皇”的政变传闻，和他十年“维稳”政策中犯下的各种公共暴行，不会被摆上台面加以清算。
时事评论员蓝述指出 ，反腐当然是习近平必需做的一件事情，因为官员全面、深刻的腐化，已经威胁到了中共的生存，但还有其他的原因。
时事评论员蓝述﹕“一个原因就是，中国社会它处在中共建政以来，过去60几年里面党民矛盾最尖锐时期，对于北京高层来讲，他要坐很长的位子，他就要平民愤。周永康为什么被抓，就是政法系统在整个过去的十几年里面，暴力维稳，他是走在最前面的，是全社会愤怒的对像，这是他要打击政法系—周永康，一个很主要的原因。”
蓝述说，抓“周老虎”还有一个来自于国际的原因。
蓝述﹕“在过去这两年里面，国际社会对中共活体摘取器官这件事情，谴责声浪现在达到前所未有的高度。中共现在要跟国际社会做生意，全球经济一体化，经济搞不好，权力就坐不稳。这种情况之下怎么面对来自于国际上的声讨。不是整治党内的腐败他就能够解决的问题。”
李伟东说，对周永康的刑事指控，可能有三大犯行﹕“一是给黑社会提供保护伞，如：四川刘汉 ，二是受贿或直接获取非法经济利益，三是涉嫌雇凶杀妻。”而最严重的指控罪名，可能是“建国以来最大的涉黑贪腐集团首犯”。
另外，李伟东提出，中共现任领导人习近平“反腐的总目标”，是去掉前党魁江泽民这个所谓的“太上皇”。而“如果周永康背后最有力的支持者——江泽民和曾庆红，仍有与习近平博弈能力的话﹔或习近平考虑到党的面子，或权力稳固度及其他不为我们所知的种种因素，最后可能会放周一马。”
旅美政论家伍凡﹕“过去像李鹏、贾庆林这些更大的老虎，你怎么打﹖江也好、曾也好，他们会心甘情愿把所有的权力交出来吗﹖交出来后他们能得到安全保障吗﹖这都未定数﹗我认为共产党的这种派系斗争跟路线斗争没那么简单，因为你不知道你放了他以后，他再回头来把你咬死，你怎么办﹖所以还会斗争。这个派系斗争的一派全部消灭了才能安心。”
旅美政论家伍凡分析，中共专制体制不变，将有打不完的“大老虎”。
旅美政论家伍凡﹕“反腐败根本就是反不了贪污份子的，不断的产生，因为体制架构在那里。因为你是权贵资本主义，你要靠这个权来运作资本主义，有权就有钱，里面贪污就出来了，所以他只能打最大的，打了最大以后，又达不到想救共产党、救政权的目地。”
蓝述分析，继周永康被立案调查以后，中共高层还会继续抓捕下一只“大老虎”，至于会不会抓到江泽民，大众可以拭目以待。
采访/朱智善 编辑/周平 后制/周天
Will Zhou Yongkang’s Case Get Depoliticized?
Since the CCP publicized the investigation of former Politburo
Standing Committee, Zhou Yongkang, how his case will be
handled has become the focus of current China affairs.
Will his case be dealt with like how Bo Xilai was treated, i.e.
depoliticized?
Will his alleged crimes be treated at a higher level or even
be dismissed?
Please see the experts’ analyses.
Former CCP’s China Reform magazine director Li Weidong
delivered his analysis and comments on Zhou’s case in a forum
in New York on August 2.
Voice of America reported Li Weidong’s analysis.
He believes that changes could occur as to how the Central will
handle Zhou Yongkang.
However, there are two possibilities.
One is to punish him with party rules and expel him from the
CCP, and the other is to prosecute him through the legal system.
It is said the legal proceeding is highly likely.
Zhou Yongkang’s case will be handled depoliticized,
like how Bo Xilai’s case was handled.
The crime is limited to his personal corruption and other criminal
acts. “At most it is elevated to a higher level such as reprieve."
In other words, the conspiracy of Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai
to oust Xi Jinping,
and his public atrocities during the ten years maintenance of
stability, will not be put on the table for liquidation.
Commentator Lan Su indicates that Xi Jinping will surely carry
out the anti-corruption,
which is deep enough to threaten the CCP’s ruling. But, there are
also other reasons.
Lan Su: “One of the reasons is: The society is at the most
critical time of conflict between the party and the people
since the founding of the CCP.
To the Beijing authorities, the sustenance of their ruling depends
on easing the resentment.
Zhou Yongkang was arrested because he was at the front of the
politics and law commission over the past decade.
His brutal stability maintenance has become the target of
public anger.
This is one of the main reasons why Xi will hit the politics and
law commission and Zhou Yongkang."
Lan Su explains the other reason comes from the
international pressure.
Lan Su: “In the past two years, the condemnation of the live
organ harvesting has reached the highest point in the
international community.
The CCP’s power relies on international trade and economy.
Under such a condition, it needs to deal with the international
condemnation.
The anti-graft campaign in the domestic will not solve
this problem."
Li Weidong explained the three possible criminal charges
against Zhou Yongkang:
“One – for providing an umbrella for the triad (such as Liu Han
of Sichuan Province); Two is for accepting illegal bribery or illegal
enrichment; Three is suspected of incitement to murder his wife."
The most severe accusation might be:
“The biggest corruption culprit since the founding of the regime."
Li Weidong also explained that Xi Jinping’s “overall goal
of fighting corruption” is to remove the former leader
Jiang Zemin, the so-called “overlord."
And “If Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong, the most powerful
supporters behind Zhou Yongkang, can still afford the game
with Xi Jinping;
or if Xi Jinping takes into account the party’s face, or the concrete
ruling power or any other unknown factors, Zhou Yongkang could
finally get loose."
US-based political commentator Wu Fan: “The even bigger
tigers such as Li Peng and Jia Qinglin, how can they be hit?
Will Jiang Zemin or Zeng Qinghong be willing to give up on
all their power?
How can they get security after giving up on power?
Everything is uncertain!
I don’t think this factional struggle within the CCP is so simple.
If someone is let off, you have no idea when he will turn back
and bite you.
The struggle will continue until the opponent is completely
wiped out."
Wu Fan analyzes there will be endless tigers within the CCP.
Wu Fan: “The anti-corruption will not handle the corrupt
elements, which will only continue to exist in the CCP system.
The crony capitalism relies on the power to operate the
capitalists, who are entitled to the money, which give rise
to corruption.
So, only the biggest one will get hit, but,
it won’t save the CCP or the ruling regime."
Lan Su believes after the downfall of Zhou Yongkang,
the CCP Central will continue the campaign with the next tiger.
As for Jiang Zemin, it is yet to see about his fate.
Interview/Zhu Zhishan Edit/ZhouPing Post-Production/ZhouTian
