【新唐人2014年06月20日讯】中国的“鬼城”鳞次栉比、存量巨大。有数据显示，今年，头五个月的房价下跌10.2%，令恐慌的房地产开发商纷纷抛出“零首付”房屋。中国可能正走近一个“明斯基时刻”，犯下跟美国同样的“次贷”错误，中国“硬着陆”将一触即发。专家指出，中国的信贷、资产泡沫的破灭，实际上已经开始了。
中共国家统计局13号说，大陆的房屋销售额从去年5月的5030亿元，减少到今年5月的4461亿元。今年头五个月的销售额同比下降10.2%。
据大陆《搜房网》资料显示，自2012年6月份以来，今年房价在5月份首次出现环比下降。今年头五个月，新屋开工同比下降19%。
而大陆“西南财经大学”教授，中国家庭财务调查研究中心主任李甘(Gan Li)向媒体透露，去年城市地区的房屋空置率高达22.4%。
为应对空屋过剩和价格下滑，许多房地产开发商提供免费装修、或免费停车位等促销方式，以吸引买家。开发商还允许买家有更长时间来支付30%的首付，甚至提供“零首付”。
据美国《大纪元》新闻网编译，《彭博社》16号评论说，随着中国漠视前车之鉴，犯下跟美国同样的次贷错误，中国在走向一个硬着陆——并且会非常突然的发生。
美国“南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院”教授谢田表示，中国房地产开发商推出“零首付”，是为了挽救现在濒临危机的房地产市场。但实际上更助长了房地产市场的泡沫，“硬着陆”只是个时间问题。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“中国零首付现象和美国次贷危机之前推行的一些房屋政策、住房政策很相像，把首付的要求降得非常低，（但）不管是当年美国的次贷危机，还是中国现在房地产的危机，作为这种信贷的泡沫、资产的泡沫，它一定都会有一个泡沫破灭的时候。”
媒体报导，中国的公共部门、和消费者及企业债务之总和，与国内生产总值(GDP)之比，已达到230%，而在2008年，这一数据为125%。这中间，地方债与影子银行规模的急速扩大，已经成为中国经济的最大风险。
去年4月，中共前财政部长项怀诚透露，中国地方政府可能积累了超过20万亿人民币的债务。
日本“野村证券”经济学家表示，中国超过50%的地方政府融资平台，已经不足以偿还利息或本金，而这正是“明斯基旁氏信贷”的特征。
越来越多的经济学家也在警告，中国可能在走近一个“明斯基时刻”。
“明斯基时刻”，得名于美国经济学家海曼•明斯基。明斯基认为，随着市场上投机性信贷和旁氏信贷的增加，信贷环境恶化，金融系统出于避险考虑收紧信贷，当经济体系提供的贷款已经不足以支撑流动性需求时，就会出现“明斯基时刻”。“明斯基时刻”是市场繁荣与衰退的转折点。
中国社科院金融研究所研究员易宪容，日前向媒体表示，美国2008年次贷危机泡沫破灭，就是一个资产价格泡沫吹大到最后崩溃的“明斯基时刻”。
谢田表示，“明斯基时刻”的到来，可以说是中国房地产泡沫破灭的又一种说法。
谢田：“但一旦发生明斯基时刻或地产泡沫破灭，我们会看到，房地产价格全面性大幅度的下滑，然后可能会拖累很多开发商，让他们破产，然后会拖累很多银行，那些银行因为这些坏帐的突然增加，也会出现巨大的危机。”
美国金融服务公司“摩根士丹利”（大摩）日前发表报告指出，中国当前大批债务即将到期，借款人资金吃紧，经济增长放缓，加之货币政策收紧，市场利率的攀升，投机信贷和旁氏信贷将更加猖獗，所有这些都预示着中国的“明斯基时刻”已经越来越近。
“大摩”认为，“明斯基时刻”之后，中国经济将严重放缓到5%，并导致全球性的企业盈利衰退。
谢田表示，在中国，这个资产泡沫的破灭，实际上现在已经开始了。
采访编辑/易如 后制/舒灿
Zero Down Payments Demonstrate a Chinese Real
Estate Sub-Prime Crisis?
Rows and rows of empty houses exist, creating
the term :Ghoust Town in China today”.
Data collected, shows the first five months of this year,
house prices have fallen by 10 percent.
Creating a panic amidst real estate developers,
calling this a “zero down payment" state.
Now China may be approaching a “Minsky Moment"
(a sudden major collapse of asset values),
when the United States committed the “subprime" error,
and China’s economy of ‘hard landings’ will be triggered.
Experts have in fact already declared, the bubble has
has already started to burst.
On June 13, National Bureau of Statistics of Chinese
Communist Party (CCP),
claimed housing sales in mainland China, reached 503 billion
yuan (US$ 80 billion) in May of last year,
yet have decreased to 446.1 billion yuan in May of this year.
During the first five months of this year, sales have
fallen by 10.2 percent.
According to Mainland “SouFun" Data ( real estate internet portal),
since June 2012, the statistical monthly chain ratio, relative
to property prices, had remained stable,
yet in May of this year, were reduced for the first time.
During the first five months of this year,
the newly constructed properties were reduced by 19%.
Gan Li is Professor of “Southwestern University
of Finance and Economics" in Mainland China,
also Director of Survey Research Centre
of Chinese Family Finances.
Recently Li revealed to the media that in last year,
the housing vacancy rate went up to 22.4 percent
in urban areas.
In response to overcapacity, vacancy
and the falling of house prices,
many real estate developers tried
to attract buyers by offering free decoration,
or free parking spaces and other such promotions.
Developers also allow buyers to pay a 30 percent down payment
during a longer period and even provide a “zero down payment".
According to the U.S. " Epoch Times" news network,
(media) Bloomberg’s criticism on June 16, claimed China is making
the same mistakes US made concerning the Subprime,
which was a mortgage crisis of a nationwide banking emergency,
sparking the recession of 2008,
and that China is heading in the same direction, with a downfall
likely to happen very soon.
Professor Frank Xie from University of South Carolina
Aiken in the US,
said Chinese real estate developers launching of the
“zero down payment" scheme,
is now on the verge of crisis and is in real need to save
the real estate market.
The truth is, this is fuelling the real estate market bubble,
a “hard landing" is only a matter of time.
Professor Frank Xie Tian: “The phenomenon we see now of zero
down payment emerging within the China property market,
is very similar to some housing policies which the United States
executed before the subprime crisis,
the down payment requirements have dropped very low.
But, regardless of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis,
or the Chinese real estate crisis,
as with the asset bubble or the credit bubble,
they all certainly have one day before they burst. “
Media reports state, the ratio of China’s total debts among public
sector, consumers and other companies,
Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) has reached
230 percent, while in 2008 this figure was 125 percent.
During this period, the rapidly expanding debts of local
governments and the expanded shadow banks,
have become the biggest risk to the economy.
Last April, the CCP’s former Finance Minister
Xiang Huaicheng,
revealed that local governments may have accumulated
debts of more than 20 trillion RMB (US$ 3 trillion).
Japan’s “Nomura Securities" economist say, more than
50 percent of Chinese local governmental
financing platforms,
have been insufficient in giving returns in interest, which
is a typical “Minsky Ponzi credit and finance" feature.
More and more economists are warning that China may
be approaching a “Minsky Moment."
“Minsky Moment" originated from the American economist
Hyman Minsky,
who argued that, with the increase of speculative credit market
and Pond’s credit,
the credit environment deteriorates, and the financial system
for hedging, start to tighten up on credit.
When the loan provided by the economy has been
insufficient to support the liquidity needs,
then the “Minsky Moment" will appear.
“Minsky Moment" is a turning point
in the market boom and bust.
Yi Xianrong is a researcher for the Institute of Finance
and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Recently told media, the bubble burst of the U.S.
subprime crisis in 2008,
was due to blowing the asset price bubble so large
that it finally collapsed, giving us a “Minsky Moment."
Dr Xie Tian said, the arrival of the “Minsky Moment,"
could be considered another way of saying,
the Chinese real estate bubble has burst.
Dr Frank Xie: “Once Minsky Moment arrives
or the real estate bubble burst occurs,
we will see an overall significant decline
in real estate prices,
which will then impact a lot of developers and trigger
their bankruptcy.
This will also hit many banks, creating a huge crisis created
by a sudden increase in bad loans.”
U.S. financial services company “Morgan Stanley," recently
issued a report,
claiming China’s current large debts have come mainly due to
the borrowers money tightening up, and
economic growth slowing down.
monetary policy is tightening, market interest rates are rising,
and speculative credit and Pond’s credit will become
more rampant.
All of these indicate, the signs are there, China’s
“Minsky Moment" is getting nearer.
“Morgan Stanley" believes the growth of China’s economy
will slow down to 5 percent after “Minsky Moment",
which will lead to a global recession in corporate earnings.
Professor Frank Tian Xie says that in China,
the bursting of the asset bubble, in fact, has now begun.
Interview & Edit/Yiru Post-Production/Shucan
