【新唐人2012年7月12日讯】研究中国问题的专家们多数认为，中国现今积蓄的各种社会、经济和环境矛盾已经到了临界点，中国将出现变局! 即将成为中共第五代领导人的习近平，被舆论形容是“站在十字路口的中共领导人。”媒体分析报导了“习近平的三大挑战”，习近平是否能解决中国的各种矛盾冲突？ 建立良好的制度? 评论认为，中共一党专政的体制不变的话，中国的变局希望不大。
今年秋季，在中共预定要召开的十八届党大会上，习近平将被选为中共中央总书记，成为第五代领导人。中国将进入所谓的“习近平时代”。
但是，新加坡《联合早报》报导，学者提出，即将接班的中共新一代领导人，必须应对三个严峻的挑战：一是，如何管理好8200万名党员；二，缓解贫富差距；三，回应中国民众日益高涨的参政诉求。
新加坡“国立大学”教授黄靖在一个论坛的相关主题讨论中指出，中国共产党现有8200万党员，队伍看起来很强大，但是北京对党员的控制力，尤其对领导干部的控制能力，实际上每况愈下。
报导说，这不仅是由于党员贪污腐败，而是因为中国的发展不均衡，利益多元，以致政策的相互排斥成了一个主要问题。
另外，历时数十年的投资驱动型经济，使得中国大陆的劳工薪资一直保留在低水平，中国的地区差异更加剧了贫富分化的现象。而中国人民要求参与政策制定过程的参政权，已经不可避免。
黄靖认为，改革已到了“不成功便成仁”的临界点。
大陆作家铁流向《新唐人》表示，如果中国不把“本位体制”解决，仍然“党高于法”、仍然都是中共一把手说话算，那么，中国就可能出现很多问题。
大陆作家铁流：“习近平上台有可能有很多根本问题没解决，特别是维稳，中国的维稳现在走向歧途，它不是维稳、它是维体。李长春把持这个宣传部门，把整个舆论全部封杀完，周永康把持政法部门，所有的公检法全部是不遵守法律、超越法律，维护这些利益集团利益，实际上公检法已经变成了看家狗。”
大陆资深媒体人高瑜表示，中国的危机主要是制度造成的，只要制度不改，不管谁上台，就必须坚持一党专政。而只有制度的改革，才能称为政治改革。她认为，中国的变局寄托于习近平一个人，希望不大。
大陆资深媒体人高瑜：“现在这两届领导人江泽民、胡锦涛都是邓小平指定的，所以这种接班人的运作方式不是选票，和老百姓的基本关系不大。你要建立民主的、公正的程序，从政治运作上都有一个民主的、宪政的平台来运作。各方面的意见都可以表达，各个阶层的意见都能表达。如果寄希望于一个人，就是习近平，是不够的。”
解放军最高学府“国防大学”的政委刘亚洲中将曾经说：十年之内，一场由威权政治向民主政治的转型，不可避免的要发生，中国将出现伟大的变局。
但这个变局一旦发生，极有可能由习近平来挑起这个历史的重担，习近平能否开创中国民主的新纪元，世人都在期待中拭目以待。
采访/白梅 编辑/周平 后制/葛雷
Xi Jinping’s Three Major Challenges
The majority of the “China” experts believe that,
now the variety of social,
economic and environmental problems have reached
a critical point, China will change!
Xi Jinping, who is going to be the fifth-generation leader,
is being described by the public that,
“A Communist Party leader standing on the crossroads.”
Media analyzes and reports “Xi’s three major challenges”.
Can Xi solve the variety of conflicts in China and
create a good institution?
The commentators believe that, if the one-party dictatorship
does not change, the hope of China changing is limited.
This fall, in the eighth session of the CCP’s Congress,
Xi Jinping will be elected as the general secretary of the CCP
Central Committee and become the fifth leader.
China will enter the so-called “Xi Jinping era”.
However, Singapore “Lianhe Zaobao” reported,
scholars have mentioned that,
about taking over the role of CCP’s next leader,
one must face three critical challenges:
Firstly, how to manage the 82 million Party members;
Secondly, ease the gap between rich and poor;
Thirdly, respond to the rising aspirations of
political participation of the people.
Singapore’s National University Professor Huang Jing,
in a forum with related topics, pointed out that
the CCP now have 82 million members
which is a strong team.
But Beijing’s control of the party members, especially of
the leading cadres, is in fact deteriorating.
Reports claim that, this is not only because of
the corruption of the party members,
but also because of the unbalanced development and
diverse interests which leads to mutual exclusion of policy.
In addition, the investment-driven economy which has taken
decades, ensuring the worker’s salary have been kept at a low level,
the regional differences have exacerbated the gap between
rich and poor.
Chinese people’s willingness to participate
in policy-making process is inevitable.
Huang Jing believes that reform has now come to
a critical breaking-point.
Mainland writer Tie Liu said to NTDTV that, if China does
not solve the “Standard system”,
it is still “the party above the law”, and it is still the CCP
as the one to speak, then, China will have a lot of problems.
Tie Liu: “There might be a lot of fundamental issues which
are not solved when Xi Jingping comes to power,
especially maintaining stability. Now China goes astray,
it is not maintaining stability; it is maintaining the system.
Li Changchun dominates the publicity department
which blocks all opinions.
Zhou Yongkong dominates political and legal departments
that all public security bureaus are non-compliant with the law or sit above the law.
Actually the public security bureaus have become a watchdog
who safeguard the interests of this interest group.”
Mainland senior media commentator Gao Yu said, China’s
crisis is mainly caused by the system,
as long as the system does not change, no matter who comes
to power, there will be a one-party dictatorship.
Only institutional reform can be called as political reform.
She believes that, it is not realistic to rely on
Xi Jinping to change the situation in China.
Go Yu: “The two former leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao
were appointed by Deng Xiaoping.
It is not based on election and has no strong relation
with ordinary people.
If you want to build a democratic and
fair procedures of election,
you should allow the opinions from all
aspects and levels to be expressed.
It is not enough to rely on one person,
which is Xi Jinping.”
The highest institution of the PLA, National Defense
University Lieutenant General Liu Yazhou, once said that:
Within a decade, a transition to democracy will inevitably happen.
China will experience a great change in situation.
If this change happens, it will be most likely
achieved by Xi Jinping.
The world is waiting to see if Xi Jinping can create a new
era of democracy in China.
