【新唐人2012年9月15日讯】在过去近两周时间内，全球最“红”的政治人物，当属中共副主席习近平。目前，全球都在“找”习近平。虽然有多种猜测传闻，但事实就是习近平一直“无法露面”。到底习近平还能不能接班？18大人事安排是否破局？18大是否还能开得成？这一切，搅得中共高层心慌意乱。
9月1号后，内定为下任中共总书记的习近平没有再露面，引起了外界极大关注。中共外交部发言人不得不连续四天，面对记者在这个问题上的追问，但是发言人都没有提供任何新的说法。所以，各界都在问：习近平到底要不要出来？如果他不出来，中共18大还开不开?
“中国民主党全委会美国委员会”主席张健认为，如果不出现大的突发政治事件的话，18大很可能会照开。
“中国民主党全委会美国委员会”主席 张健：“我相信它（18大）还会继续进行，因为当一个政权即便（走向）末路的时候，即将走向崩溃边缘的时候，它还会完成。对外的宣传也一定会开成一个‘胜利的’、‘圆满的’、‘团结的’大会，这是他们一贯的基调。”
对于习近平近来没有公开露面一事，外界有多种传闻。有说他背部受伤、车祸、被暗杀、中风、心脏病发等。也有消息说，他患了肝肿瘤，接受手术。
不过，近期也有传言说，习近平一切都好，身体健康。
张健分析，在目前这个关键时刻，习近平和全世界媒体“躲猫猫”，如果不是身体原因，就是他本人遇到了很大的麻烦。但现在来看，中共高层没有异动，他还是会继承中共掌门人的位置。因此，张健认为，习很可能是身体上的问题。
张健：“其实习近平要得到国内大多数人的支持，太子党，左派，右派，团派，各种派别他都得要拉拢到身边，同时他也必须获得国际力量的支持，这些民主国家还认为他是有能力将中国在亚太地区继续保持在一个稳定，维持经济高增长，来和西方民主国家在贸易上、等等这些方面进行交易。如果说这个人物，在这么关键时刻，放弃了所有关键点的话，我不相信他是（平安无恙的）。”
时事评论员、中国问题专家张杰连认为，这件事情炒的沸沸扬扬，最后直接影响到中共18大的权力交接。实际上都是因为中共这种专制、不透明的暗箱操作。
不过，张健指出，不需要对18大进行过多的猜测。因为不管它开成开不成，都难以阻挡中共的倒台。
张健：“18大也好，多少大也好，其实对真正关心中国未来的人，关心的问题应该是：中共什么时候倒台，中共什么时候解体，什么时候中国是属于中国人民的，我关心的是这些。不能因为它开不成18大，中国共产党就不倒台。”
而张杰连特别提到，目前中共高层所经历的都是让人意想不到的、具有戏剧性的情势。中共在历史上的角色，并不是外界能够帮它推演的。
张杰连：“很有可能任何的一个外界因素的介入，整个的政权体系就会轰然垮塌。我想通过习近平这么小小的一个伤病吧，就引起这么大的剧烈的变动，那么同样中共18大的后续啊，在我看来，实际上后面就是走向一种溃败，整体上这个体制就要垮台，中国就将迎来没有共产党的新中国。”
今年以来，先后发生的王立军、薄熙来事件，和习近平的神秘失踪，不仅冲击了当局所谓的 “政局稳定”，而且对中共暗箱操作的整个体制，提出了无情拷问。中国局势风云莫测，可以说是前所未有的动荡。
采访/朱智善 编辑/王子琦 后制/王明宇
Xi Jinping’s Disappearance Creates Suspicion Regarding Whether the 18th National Congress will be held on Time
In the past two weeks, the CCP’s vice president Xi Jinping
has become the most “popular” politician globally.
Currently, all media in the world are looking for him.
There have been many different perspectives on the situation,
but the fact is there must be a reason for his disappearance.
Can Xi Jinping still succeed as the new CCP leader?
Will there be any significant changes in personnel
arrangements for the 18th National Congress?
Will the CCP be able to complete the 18th National Congress
as scheduled?
The doubt cast on the CCP leader group makes them
feel nervous and flustered.
Since September 1st, the next General Secretary of the CCP
Xi Jinping has disappeared in front of the public eye,
which has attracted great attention from outsiders.
The CCP’s spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has
had to answer questions about Xi for four successive days.
However, the spokesman didn’t provide any new information
in responding the reporters.
Under such a situation, the whole global society is asking
the same questions. Will Xi Jinping resurface?
If not, will the 18th National Congress be held on time?
Chairman of China Democratic Committee Zhang Jian believes
that the 18th National Congress will not be postponed unless some serious political situation breaks out.
Zhang Jian, Chairman of China Democratic Committee:
”I personally believe the (18th National) Congress will be held
because for a political regime nearing = its collapse,
it will try to accomplish whatever it can.
It will publicly claim that the Congress is a victorious,
successful and united one, as it always does.”
There have been many speculations for why Xi Jinping has
failed to appear in public these days, including back injury, traffic accident, assassination, stroke and heart attack.
Someone also said that Xi had received an operation
on a hepatic tumor.
Besides all those speculations, a latest rumor says that
there is no problem with Xi Jinping’s health.
According to Zhang Jian, Xi disappeared in front of the public
eye at such a critical moment.
He must have had a health problem or some other kind
of serious trouble.
However, there has been no significant move from
the CCP leadership group since Xi disappeared.
Perhaps he will still be the next CCP leader as expected.
From all the analysis above, Zhang Jian preferred to believe
that Xi had a health problem.
(Zhang Jian): ”Xi needs support from most domestic factions,
including princelings, leftists, rightists, and Communist Youth League faction, among others.
At the same time support from the global society is also
important to him
because the western countries play a key role in
maintaining stable development in China’s economy.
China needs communications with those countries
in trade and other fields.
The fact is that such an important person gives up all those
important tasks at a critical moment, so it is hard to believe that nothing has happened to him.”
Political commentator and expert on China issues
Zhang Jielian remarked that Xi’s disappearance had drawn
so much attention that it already threatened the power
transfer in the 18th National Congress.
In fact the trouble results from the non-transparent
dictatorship of the CCP.
Zhang Jian believes that, it is not necessary to make excessive
speculations on the 18th National Congress because the CCP will collapse anyway no matter how it goes.
Zhang Jian: ”To those who really care about China’s future,
the important question is when the CCP will collapse or
disintegrate, not how the 18th National Congress or any other CCP’s congress goes.
China will belong to the Chinese people once the CCP
regime reaches its end.
What I want to know is when this day will come.
The CCP’s fate won’t change even if the 18th National Congress
cannot be held as scheduled.”
Zhang Jielian mentioned that, what the CCP leaders have
experienced was always dramatic and difficult to predict in advance;
the role that the CCP plays in history is not
something that can be easily defined by outsiders.
(Zhang Jielian): ”Any interference from outside can possibly
lead to the final collapse of the whole CCP’s regime.
You see only Xi Jinping’s speculative injury has caused
such turbulence.
Similarly, all the news about the 18th National Congress
suggests the fact that the regime is going toward its disintegration.
China will embrace a future without the CCP’s governance.”
In 2012, both Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai event and Xi Jinping’s
mysterious disappearance have blown away the CCP’s so-called political stability.
Furthermore, both events seriously question the nature
of the CCP’s non-transparent regime.
This unexpected situation changes suggest the advent
of unprecedented turbulence in China.
