【新唐人2012年6月19日讯】虽然之前有关军队高层要求在本届全代会入常的传闻一度沸沸扬扬，但从近期结束常委换届的广东、上海、重庆、四川、山东，还有之前完成换届的陕西、海南、青海等各省情况来看，各省级常委中不但没有政法委书记的位置，也没有给军方留下任何位置。
《博讯》网16号发表署名方子的文章说，“军人入常本届已经没戏了”，之前的传言引起了胡、温关注，立刻召集各方大员了解情况，进行安抚。《解放军报》也在12号发表《自觉在大局下行动》的文章，要求各级官兵正确面对职务变动，以大局为重。明显针对“入常”传言降温。
文章说，政治局常委会及军委内部磋商后，形成一致意见——军人依然不入常委会，在政治局还是维持两人名额，但可能扩大军委委员名额，为60万“武警部队”增加一个席位。对于军人入常问题，胡等人推到了下届，而至于军方的不满，将通过做“工作”、压制和换人来解决。
曾在山东任教的史学教授、“中国社会民主党”中央委员会主持人刘因全认为，“军队高层谋求入常”的传言肯定是军队里面江派势力放出来的，意在挑拨。
“中国社会民主党”中央委员会主持人 刘因全：“徐才厚多次表态支持胡锦涛。但是，梁光烈一直没有表态。我认为像梁光烈这种人，他有可能有这种野心，就是通过提出来部队高级将领入常这件事情，挑拨部队和胡、温的关系，造成这种矛盾。”
《中国事务》杂志主编伍凡也认为，这是对胡锦涛的一种挑战。
《中国事务》主编 伍凡：“因为胡锦涛对薄熙来不敢强硬处理，所以军人们看着你这块软趴趴的，那我就要出来提出更多要求，这里边就出来一个变数了，本来是没有，现在他就要求了，我要参加政治局常委。现在问题就出在这里。”
《博讯》的文章还说，对于之前发出“军方入常”呼声的人，调查出名单后，这些人必将遭到调换或退休。由于有郭伯雄、徐才厚等铁杆的表态示忠与支持，胡、习、温并不担心被处理者造反。
刘因全对此表示赞同。
刘因全：“胡锦涛是应该处理了。因为这等于是用枪杆子来逼迫胡锦涛来给他们让步。在这种情况下，如果再不出手的话，会有些危险，有些被动。我认为胡锦涛现在既然掌控了北京军区、北京卫戍区和中央警卫团，就应该毫不手软的抓几个人了，这样对胡锦涛会非常有利。”
刘因全分析，杀鸡儆猴之后，就算梁光烈等人想发动军事政变，也会卡在三个关键人物身上，就是掌控“御林军”中央警卫局的令计划﹔和北京军区司令员房峰辉﹔以及北京卫戍区司令员郑传福，因为他们都是胡锦涛一派。
刘因全：“也就是说，中央警卫团和北京军区，北京卫戍区，他们的实权都掌握在胡锦涛的手里。这样，即使像梁光烈这样的人，在江派势力的支持下要发动政变的话，他也没有办法成功。”
据了解，“军队入常”没戏后，军中各方势力对军委副主席位置的争夺更加激烈。
采访/刘惠 编辑/尚燕 后制/李若琳
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No Position for Military Officials in Central Committee
Previously rumors spread that China’s top military officials
will enter CCP’s Central Committee at its 18th National Conference.
After several provinces have completed reelection,
however, it shows that
neither the General Secretary of Politics and Law Committee
nor military officials will enter Central Committee.
Boxun website published Fang Zi’s article on June 16 titled
“No Position for Military Officials in Central Committee.”
Concerned about the previous rumors, Hu Jintao & Wen Jiabao
recently comforted military officials in different districts.
Liberation Army Daily also published an article on 12th titled
“Follow the General Plan”, asking officers and soldiers to accept personnel changes in the army.
This is clearly to clarify the rumors about military officials
entering the Central Committee.
The article said that CCP’s Central Committee and
Central Military Commission reached consensus that military officials not join the Standing Committee.
Political Bureau of the Central Committee will still
reserve two seats for military officials,
and Central Military Commission might increase a seat
for the 600,000 “armed police force.”
Hu Jintao and other CCP officials have postponed
the issue for coming leaders to solve.
They resort to pacification, repression and personnel change
to deal with the army’s discontent.
Liu Yinquan, former professor of history, moderator in
Central Committee of Social Democratic Party of China,
believes that rumors about military officials seeking position
in Central Committee must have been intentionally released by the Jiang faction.
Liu Yinquan, moderator in Central Committee of
Social Democratic Party of China: “Xu Caihou several times
declared support of Hu Jintao, while Liang Guanglie never did.
I believe military officials like Liang Guanglie try to raise the
issue of Central Committee membership to jeopardize relations between Hu Jintao and the army.”
Wu Fan, political critic and chief editor of Chinese
Affairs magazine, takes this as a challenge to Hu Jintao.
Wu Fan, chief editor of Chinese Affairs magazine: “Hu Jintao
dare not deal with the Bo Xilai episode with determination, and show the army his weakness.
Therefore, the military officials demand more than before.
There was no position for the army in the Committee.
Now the army is asking for more. That is the problem.”
Boxun article also said those who initiated the rumors will be
found out and punished by replacement or forced retirement.
With the support of Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, Hu Jintao
would not worry about rebellion by the punished officials.
Liu Yinquan expressed agreement with Wu’s opinion.
Liu Yinquan: “It is time for Hu Jintao to take action,
since the army is now forcing Hu to compromise.
Otherwise Hu will fall into danger.
I believe Hu Jintao should now arrest several [officers]
since he is now in control of the Beijing Military Region,
Beijing Garrison and the Central Guards Regiment
That will bring him many advantages.”
According Liu’s analysis, after Hu’s punishment activities,
Liang Guang Lie and other officers wouldn’t attempt a
military coup because three officials—
commander of the Central Guard Bureau Ling Jihua,
Commander of Beijing Military Region Feng Hui,
and commander of Beijing Garrison Zheng Chuanfu
all support Hu Jintao
Liu Yinquan: “In other words, Hu Jintao is in control of
the Central Guards Regiment, Beijing Military Region, and Beijing Garrison.
Even if Liang Guanglie and other Jiang Faction members want
to launch a political coup, they would have no chance of success.”
It is reported that military forces have fallen into fiercer
competitions for Vice Chairman of Central Military Commission.
