【新唐人2012年9月15日讯】“钓鱼岛主权之争”出现新的动态。14号，中国6艘海监船抵达钓鱼岛海域，对钓鱼岛及附属岛屿附近海域进行维权巡航。与此同时，日本海上保安厅派出大批巡视船，并且出动多架飞机，在现场监控中国海监船。看局势，外界认为，中日之间真的要开战交火了。
中共喉舌《新华社》报导说，中国6艘海监船组成两个维权巡航编队，9月14号6点多抵达钓鱼岛及附属岛屿海域，进行维权巡航。
同一天，《日本新闻网》报导，据日本海上保安厅第11管区那霸海上保安本部发表的消息说，中国海监“51号”和“海监66号”船已经从钓鱼岛赤尾屿的北侧方向进入钓鱼岛海域﹔但日本海上保安厅也派出大批巡视船，并且出动多架飞机在现场监控中国海监船的行踪。
时政评论专家伍凡认为，虽然中共派出海监船抵达钓鱼岛海域声称巡航，但是中共现在面临的问题很多。
第一习近平到底要不要出来，他不出来，十八大还要不要开？这是中共最近面临的政治上的难题﹔而经济上，中国的经济一直在下滑，8月份中央政府的税收是负的，如果打仗，需要花大钱。
时政评论专家 伍凡： “一个是打，一个是不打，维持目前局面，但是你要去管理，维护钓鱼岛的权益，现在正处在这种考虑的状态。这个打，打赢了就好，可是打输了你怎么处理？所以这个棋，现在是一个关键的时候。”
伍凡指出，日本真的要跟中共打仗，还要看美国方面的态度。
伍凡： “那么其中有一个因素，那就要看美国人的态度，美国人是不是真的要介入，还是美国人是帮架。但是，不是真正出兵，不知道，不清楚。因为现在美国也遇到了相当多的困难。”
《世界新闻网》发表文章说，中日军事上的仗不会打起来，但是经济仗会打响。文章认为，中日间一旦打经济仗，不要说谁吃亏，双方受到的打击将可能一样大。
美国“南卡罗来纳大学艾肯商学院”教授谢田指出，中日两方经济上的依赖性不是对等的。日本实际上是提供资金和技术的一方，中国只不过是提供劳动力的一方，如果日本资金撤出的话，对中国经济会有非常严重的影响。
美“南卡罗来纳大学艾肯商学院”教授 谢田： “但是对中国来说除了经济上原因，中国还有政治上原因，日本的经济如果受到影响，那反而会促进日本民间更加团结起来在政府周围，另外想办法度过难关。中国经济如果受到影响的话，民众的愤怒就会立刻推翻中共的政权。所以，中国（共）政府实际上在经济和政治上有着双重的担忧。”
伍凡表示，现在中日之间的局面还很难预料，要看局势发展。他认为，一件事就可以改变整个局面，像习近平“失踪”多天，把整个中共的政治局面改变了。因此伍凡说，目前中国的政治局面还不稳定，中共冒然向日本开战交火! 会“是个问号”。
采访/林莉 编辑/唐睿 后制/萧宇
Is a Sino-Japan War Imminent ?
New developments appeared in the territorial dispute over
the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands).
On September 14th, six Chinese patrol ships reportedly
cruised in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands.
Japan Coast Guard dispatched a number of patrol boats
and aircrafts to the scene, monitoring the situation.
Outside observers expect that a war could be made
between China and Japan.
Mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
Xinhua News Agency, reported that on September 14th,
six Chinese patrol ships had arrived in waters near
the Diaoyu Islands to cruise for rights-defense.
The same day, Ribenxinwen.com quoted official news
of Japan’s Coast Guard, who said that
China’s two marine surveillance ships had entered
waters of Diaoyu Islands.
Many Japan Coast Guards ships and aircrafts were sent
to make the on-scene surveillance, said the news report.
Critic Wu Fan says, although outwardly the CCP sent
patrol ships to cruise the waters of the Diaoyu Islands,
the regime is now distracted by many other problems.
Firstly, whether Xi Jinping will show up or not ?
If not, whether the 18th Party Congress will be held?
This is a hard nut that the CCP has to crack now.
China’s economy keeps dropping.
The CCP central tax revenue was negative in August.
A ton of money would be needed if a war is waged.
Wu Fan: “Two options for the CCP: to wage a war or reverse.
Now it’s necessary to make a choice.
If it chooses to wage a war and win it, that’s good.
But what if it fails? And how will it handle the situation then?
So now it’s a critical moment.”
Fan Wu notes that Japan will rely on the U.S. stance
if it starts a war with the CCP regime.
Wu Fan: “One of factors is to see the U.S. attitude.
Whether the American would really intervene with it
by sending troops or not ? The answer is unknown yet.
The U.S. has also met with quite a few problems."
Worldjournal.com commented that an economic battle
instead of a military battle would be staged.
The commentary predicted that both China and Japan
would be equally hard hit in the economic battle.
Professor Xie Tian from University of South Carolina says,
the mutual economic dependency of both sides is not equal.
Japan provides capital and technology,
while China only offers the labor force.
Once Japan withdraws investments from China,
the latter would suffer overwhelmingly severe impacts.
Xie Tian: “Apart from economic reasons, there’re political
factors to be considered at the side of China.
Japan’s economic plight would only promote civilians’ unity
to seek ways pulling through the difficulties.
But in China, the CCP regime would face an overthrow
by civilians in fury.
So China (the CCP)’s regime now has concerns over
both economy and politics.”
Wu Fan thinks it is still hard to predict how the situation
develops between China and Japan.
He believes that any unexpected thing could change
the whole situation.
For example Xi Jinping “missing" for days has changed
the CCP’s political situation.
Wu Fan says China’s current political situation
is not stable yet.
Therefore, he raises doubts about the possibility that
the CCP would really go to war with Japan.
