【新唐人2012年9月15日讯】目前距离先前预测的中共中央“十八大”召开的日期，只剩下大约一个月的时间，而被外界认为是中共下一代领导人的习近平“失踪”多天，也开始引起国际金融市场的关注。
中国大陆经济成长趋缓，经济前景充满了“不确定”，而中共领导班子换届的“十八大”即将召开前，预定接班的准领导人习近平却突然“失踪”，中国政治和经济的不确定性，成为国内外关注的焦点。
《德国之声》报导，对于习近平健康状况的谣言，北京方面没有做出正面回应，这已经引起了全球金融市场的注意。里昂证券(CLSA)香港中国投资策略部负责人郑名凯(Francis Cheung)，最近在香港出席一次专业会议时指出：人们都开始担心习近平的下落。
而受到8月宏观经济数据表现不佳的影响，多家外资机构近来纷纷调降对于大陆的经济成长预期，根据《路透社》对20家机构的调查预测，大陆第3季的GDP年增率将只有7.4％，连续第7季下滑，第4季的GDP则为7.6％，两者都低于7月份的水准。
79年大陆“民主墙”创办人之一蔡桂华：“经济和政治的现象是必不可分的，哪个国家的首相领导人被谋杀了，或者是突发事件，政治事件的突发，都会影响到一个股市的上下大幅度波动，尤其对投资来说，经济是上层领域里面的基础，他当然要对习近平那种状态要去加以特别的关心，来正确判断自己的投资。”
《纽约时报》14号报导，习近平的消失是因为政治局势尚未稳定，中共高层“仍在斗争，还没结束”。而不少中国资深官员一致认为，习近平是因为轻度心脏病或是中风，才会取消多项会晤活动。一名报社资深编辑也表示，他们打听到的可靠消息是﹕习近平的心脏出了问题。
报导引述和中共中央办公厅关系良好的政治分析家的消息指出，8月的“北戴河会议”，以及之前在北京召开的其他会议，“气氛很糟糕，斗得很凶”。
时事评论员夏小强：“在习近平失踪之后，《路透社》立刻独家报导了习近平与胡德平谈话，透露自己将坚持改革、严惩薄熙来的消息。从这个角度来看，习近平的失踪和江派势力的动作密切相关。那么，习近平如今透过媒体放风无恙，很有可能是在利用此消息在换取恢复和准备重新出现在公众视野的时间。”
夏小强表示，中共高层围绕习近平接班的争斗已经进入白热化，戏剧性的场景随时可能发生。
79年大陆“民主墙”创办人之一蔡桂华：“随着王立军事态的发展，中国里面很多见不得人的丑态事情都会暴露出来的，那么像习近平他消失了，消失了什么原因，在这样一个铁幕笼罩下一个专制集团的内幕来说，就是很猫腻很蹊跷，但是从我们外界分析来说，总之来说他好像是大事不妙。”
《纽约时报》的报导还说，两名担任大陆政府顾问的学者表示，习近平可能会在这个周末发表讲话，也会按照预定计划接任最高领导人。
而香港《苹果日报》专栏作者李平评论指出，中共政治权力经由幕后斗争、并非经由民主选举产生，(这也)决定了中共政治患上不治之症，不可能在阳光下运作。中共的政治制度一日不变，中共领导人的健康就一日不可能公开，一如他们的财产不可能公开。
采访/常春 编辑/黄亿美 后制/郭敬
World-wide Concern About China’s Political And Economic Problems
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will hold its 18th
Congress in less than a month.
Meanwhile, the disappearance of Xi Jinping for many days
has attracted not only world-wide concern but also the concern of the international financial markets.
Mainland China’s economic growth slow down exhibits
“uncertain" economic outlook.
The disappearance of Xi Jinping, the head of the next
leadership group, plus uncertain economic outlook has become the focus of attention at home and abroad.
“Deutsche Welle” reported that Beijing has not made
a statement regarding Xi Jinping or his health status.
It has resulted in the attention of the global financial markets.
Francis Cheung, CLSA (CLSA), Hong Kong,
China’s Ministry of Investment Strategy, pointed out that
at a recent professional conference in Hong Kong,
people began to worry about the whereabouts of Xi.
The macroeconomic data for August showed poor performance,
thus many foreign institutions have recently lowered expectations of Mainland’s economic growth.
According to a Reuters survey forecast of 20 institutions,
the Mainland’s 3rd quarter GDP annual growth will be only
7.4%, the 7th consecutive quarter of decline;
the fourth quarter GDP will be 7.6%.
Both are lower than the July level.
Cai Guihua, one of the founders of the “Democracy Wall"
in 1979: “Economic and political phenomena cannot be separated.
Unexpected events, such as an assassination of leaders
of a country, will cause a great stock market fluctuation.
Especially in the investment arena, the economy
is the basis of the upper level.
Of course, people will pay special attention to the news
of Xi Jinping to properly evaluate their own investment."
On the 14th, The New York Times reported that Xi Jinping’s
disappearance is caused by the unstable political situation and the power struggle within the high level CCP.
“Many senior Chinese officials agreed that Xi Jinping’s
disappearance and cancellation of important meetings was caused by a mild heart attack or stroke.
A senior editor of a newspaper also said that they learned from
reliable sources that Xi Jinping had a heart problem.
Analysts having a good relationship with the CCP Central
Committee pointed out that the atmosphere was bad
and the power struggle was severe during the August
Beidaihe meeting and other previously held meetings.
Current affairs commentator Xia Xiaoqiang: “After Xi Jinping
disappeared, Reuters immediately reported the conversation
between Xi Jinping and Hu Deping, in which he persisted
in ‘reform and severely punishment of Bo Xilai’.
From this perspective, Xi Jinping’s disappearance may
be closely related to Jiang’s faction.
Xi Jinping spreading of news of being unharmed through
the media is most likely conveying his recovery and preparing to re-appear.”
Xia Xiaoqiang said that the battle among senior officials
surrounding the Xi Jinping succession has been heating up and dramatic events could occur at any time.
Cai Guihua, one of founders of Democracy Wall in 1979:
“In Wang Lijun’s case, many ugly things have been exposed.
Now Xi Jinping disappeared, what is the reason?
The inside of an autocratic group under such an iron curtain
seems to be very tricky and very strange.
But from our outsider’s analysis, it is all bad news."
The New York Times report also said the two scholars
who work as consultants for the mainland government,
said Xi Jinping may give a speech this weekend and things
will proceed in accordance with the schedule.
Hong Kong’s Apple Daily columnist Li Ping commented that
the CCP’s behind-the-scenes power struggle is not a result of a democratic process.
The CCP suffers from a terminal illness and cannot operate
in the light of day.
If the CCP’s political system remains unchanged, the health
status of the Chinese Communist leaders will not be revealed, just like their personal assets.
