【新唐人2012年10月10日讯】在距离中共18大开幕仅剩一个月的时刻，北京政坛又传出：现任中共最高领导人胡锦涛已确定“裸退”的消息，但前提是：江泽民必须彻底退出公共生活。在此之前，盛传胡锦涛将保留“中央军委主席”一段时间。
海外中文媒体8号引述北京消息人士的话说，胡锦涛将在18大“裸退”，但保留三大条件。一是，前最高领导人江泽民必须彻底退出公共生活；二，让他保持过去江泽民退休后的地位，尤其在国际问题（包括台湾、西藏问题）上保留发言权；三是，温家宝退休后将保持国内问题上的发言权，包括对64等敏感历史问题的处理。
前美国“哥伦比亚大学”访问学者、政治分析家陈破空指出，当年的“胡温新政”无疾而终，就是江泽民等干政的结果。如果胡锦涛不想重蹈江泽民覆辙，在历史上留下骂名，让世人嘲讽，“裸退”不失为上策。
政治分析家陈破空：“如果说胡锦涛退位，他逼着江泽民退出政治舞台，江、胡都不要再影响政策，如果以这个作为条件的话，我想反而对中国的政治改革是一个促进。因为中国政治改革必须以结束老人政治为前提，如果老人政治没有结束，政治改革很难开展。”
但是，时事评论员杰森‧马认为，胡锦涛“裸退”，是政治对手放出来的风声，因为江泽民没有任何职务，在官方媒体上早就消失了，他已经没有资本和胡锦涛做交易，所以，这是海外江派媒体降低胡锦涛威信的手段。
时事评论员杰森‧马：“完全是江派在撒烟雾弹，因为本身江派已经没有任何实际的权力，而所有消息都是假的。那么，以这样空对空的东西，居然想创造出让人相信胡锦涛会‘裸退’。这样的消息，本身来说是很荒谬、很可笑的。”
曾任香港《文汇报》东北办事处主任的姜维平则认为，胡锦涛“留任军委主席”，有利于中国改革。
稍早前，姜维平在媒体上评论指出，从目前中国的政治局势来看，如果胡锦涛在处理薄熙来问题之后，“留任军委主席至少两年”，那么，必定有利于习近平和李克强接班，也有利于相对开明的党内改革派的力量滋长，进一步阻击左倾的“二次文革”思潮的干扰，进而可能开启规模空前的政治体制改革，“六四”将获得平反。
英国《金融时报》今年3月透露：近几年，温家宝已在三次中共高层秘密会议中提议为六四平反，但是每次都遭到在场部分官员的反对，而重庆前市委书记薄熙来是其中反对最为激烈的官员之一。
不过，外界普遍认为，薄熙来的政变计划传言，彻底改变了中国政局的走向。今年2月6号，重庆前副市长王立军携带机密资料，出逃成都美国领事馆，引爆薄熙来和中共政法委书记周永康策划政变的黑幕。
美国媒体在中共国家副主席习近平访美期间，率先曝光薄、周秘谋政变丑闻。报导说，他们拟定了一个完整的中国新年后攻击习近平的计划，就是：通过海外媒体释放出对习近平的各种指责和批判，削弱习近平的权力，然后帮助薄熙来接任政法委书记。薄熙来掌握武警、公安系统后，时机许可时，强迫习近平交权。
中共当局在9月28号宣布了薄熙来的六宗罪状，开除他的党籍和公职，并移送司法机关处理。 香港《苹果日报》和《明报》等诸多媒体都认为，这是中共第四代领导人胡锦涛和第五代领导人习近平联手的结果。
一般分析认为，既然胡、习已经紧密结盟，胡锦涛名义上是否“全退”已不重要，因为对中共政局不会有实质性的影响。
采访/陈汉 编辑/宋风 后制/薛莉
Will CCP Leader Hu Jintao Resign All Positions?
A month before the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)’s 18th
National People’s Congress, a rumor spreads in Beijing’s
political field that, Hu Jintao will resign from all positions,
on the basis that Jiang totally disappears from public actions.
But before Jiang Zemin steps down, Hu will remain
chairman of the Central Military Commission.
October 8—overseas Chinese media
quoted Beijing sources saying,
Hu Jintao will resign from all positions at the CCP’s
18th National People’s Congress (NPC), under 3 conditions.
1. Former supreme leader Jiang Zemin must completely
withdraw from public life;
2. Hu will keep all positions until then, reserving the right to
speak on international issues including on Taiwan and Tibet;
3. Wen Jiabao will reserve the right to speak on domestic
issues, like ‘June 4th’ and other sensitive historical topics.
Chen Pokong, political analyst and
former visiting scholar of U.S. Columbia University, said
the Hu-Wen Reform ended before,
because of Jiang Zemin’s interference.
Chen says, if Hu Jintao did not want to
repeat Jiang Zemin’s mistakes,
he must leave infamy in the past and let the world
mock him; it would be best policy to resign from all posts.
[Chen Pokong, Political analyst]:
“If Hu Jintao’s resignation is to force Jiang Zemin to quit the stage of history—neither will influence policies again.
Then, I think it’s good for China’s political reform, which will
only be made possible by terminating the ruling of elders."
But political commentator Jason Ma believes that Hu Jintao’s
news of resignation was released by his political opponents.
Jiang does not hold any current positions and disappeared
from official media long ago, so cannot make a deal with Hu.
So the news on Hu was likely released by Jiang’s faction
to reduce Hu’s prestige, according to Ma.
[Jason Ma, Political Commentator]: “Jiang’s faction
is throwing smoke bombs, because it has no actual power.
All messages are false—it’s trying to convince others that Hu
will resign, without any evidence; it’s absurd and ridiculous."
Jiang Weiping, former director of Hong Kong
Wen Wei Po’s northeast office,
says Hu Jintao’s remaining Chairman of the
Central Military Commission is favorable to China’s reform.
Media reported Jiang Weiping noting that,
Hu has remained Chairman of the Central Military
Commission for at least 2 years after ordering Bo Xilai’s case.
Looking at the current political situation, it must have been
conducive to the succession of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.
It must have also been conducive to the development of
the relatively liberal reformists,
by blocking interference from the leftists’
“2nd Cultural Revolution”, which may have in turn, began an unprecedented scale of political reform.
It may have also led to vindicating the “June Fourth" event.
The Financial Times (UK) said in March that, in recent years,
Wen Jiabao had proposed secret CCP leadership meetings 3 times,
to verdict ‘June 4th’, but some officials opposed Hu
each time, with Bo Xilai opposing him most strongly.
Outsiders widely believed the disclosed coup plans of Bo Xilai
which totally changed the trend of China’s political situation.
On February 6, Wang Lijun, former vice mayor of Chongqing,
fled to the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu with confidential information,
setting off a coup plan of Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang,
the secretary of CCP Politics and Law Committee.
During vice President Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States,
U.S. media exposed Bo and Zhou’s political coup plans.
It was reported that Bo and Zhou had developed a complete
plan on how to attack Xi Jinping after the New Year.
That is, by releasing all kinds of accusations and criticism
against Xi through overseas media, to weaken Xi’s power,
and then help Bo take over as secretary of the Politics
and Law Committee.
When Bo had taken charge of the armed police and public
security system, they would force Xi to hand over power.
On October 28, the Communist regime announced the 6 sins
of Bo Xilai, dismissed him from the CCP and public positions, and transferred him to judicial organs.
Hong Kong’s Apple Daily and Ming Pao, among many others,
believe it was achieved through joint efforts by Hu and Xi.
Analysts say, since Hu and Xi are closely allied, it’s not
important whether Hu Jintao will resign nominally, as it will not affect Chinese politics much.
