【新唐人2012年11月17日讯】十八大召开后，政治局常委由9人改为7人，胡锦涛不再留任中央军委主席，显示“习李”在内部权力妥协下全面接班。不过，外界一直盛传﹕习、李两人是“太子党”与“团派”的代表，尤其李克强，被传是胡锦涛最钟意的接班人，最终却由习近平窜出。两人未来能否合作，摆脱外界揣测的派系斗争阴影？超越胡温体制，有待观察。而德语媒体指出，由于制度使然，习近平恐怕将难有作为。另有分析指出，无论对中共政权哪个人、哪种势力来说，贪污腐败、贫富悬殊、言论自由的难题不解决，中共政权面临的压力都会上升。
被外界称为“政敌团队”的中共新领导班子，有路线、派系之争，还夹杂更多的恩怨情仇和利益纠葛。7名常委中，除了习近平和李克强两人外，其余5人都是40后的六旬老人，有分析指出，这5名老人将会成为“习李新政”的绊脚石。
时政评论家孟渊沛：“现在共产党是求稳、怕乱，是第一位的，所以把这些人塞进去，而且他们是老人说的算，前任说的算，包括胡锦涛连军委主席都没连任，很多人说他是自愿的，不是！这完全是权力斗争的结果。”
时政评论家孟渊沛还认为，上一届9位常委，目地就是扩大江派的力量，大过胡锦涛，如今又改回7常委，也是为了把李源潮和汪洋挤掉，箝制习近平。不管常委9位还是7位，都是江泽民说的算。
孟渊沛：“中国的政治非常黑暗，是老人决定了新人，死人决定了活人，在这种情况下，就是谁保守，谁没有改革的理念，谁维护专制的利益谁选上。谁稍微有些开放的意识，不稳定的意识或一些言论他们会剔除的，所以现在的局面是非常糟糕的一个局面。”
孟渊沛还说，现在，政治局常委里的左派比重较大，将会影响习近平的政策方向。他认为，上届温家宝还能口头表态，现在，可能连说话的人都没了。
中国历史学者章立凡在接受《德国之声》采访时表示，习近平在保守势力夹持下很难前行，如果党政继续不分，一切由党来主导，有可能将来官方和民间各行其事，分道扬镳。
而时事评论员李善鉴向《新唐人》表示﹕
李善鉴：“中共的这个政治它不是说一、两个开明的人能够解决的问题。它的问题在于它的整个制度就是错的。可以强调一点就是很邪恶的。那么在这种制度下几个开明的人想做一些事情他也做不了。也就是这个制度它还会延续下去，直到它彻底的毁灭。”
《德国之声》综合德国媒体的报导指出，制度将牵制中共新领导人。报导说，“一个人怎么才能从国家利益出发，制服并打破那些国有 经济巨头？”而，“习近平至今的公开表态，甚至连稍稍偏离一点党的共识的影子都没有。”
台湾《商业周刊》杂志报导，中国近一年超过20万起大规模抗议与罢工事件，举世闻名的官员贪污，为了建设不惜代价，造成一年75万人因污染死亡的不良记录。高涨的民怨，让这群以中共新总书记习近平、国务院总理李克强为主的中国新领导班子，必须靠着不断成长的经济，来维持统治的合理性。
而在胡温交棒给习李的时候，正逢中国经济发展遭遇重大瓶颈，出口重创、通膨压力、房市泡沫等内外并发症，还有贫富差距拉大，社会冲突矛盾不断上升，政治腐败，加上没有言论、集会和信仰自由，这些都是老百姓质疑中共执政合法性的主因，也是习李无可回避的治理课题。
采访/陈汉 编辑/黄亿美 后制/郭敬
Issues Former Administration left to Xi Jinping will be Intractable and Thorny
After the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress,
members of the Politburo Standing Committee changed from 9 to 7.
Hu Jintao will no longer be Chairman of
the Central Military Commission which shows that
“Xi-Li” has taken the power completely under a compromise
of the CCP factions.
However, there’s rumor that Xi and Li are representatives
of “princeling” and “Youth League”.
Especially Li Keqiang was said to be the most favorable
successor of Hu Jintao, but that he had to let Xi Jinping take the lead.
Whether Xi-Li can cooperate in future, can ignore
the impact of factions struggling, can surpass Hu-Wen?
one needs to wait for the answer to that question.
Some German media reported that within the CCP system,
it will be hard for Xi Jinping to achieve very much by himself.
Analysts have pointed out that no matter who or
which faction rules,
the pressure on the CCP will be increased
if it doesn’t solve the problem of corruption,
the huge gap between rich and poor and the issue of
freedom of speech and expression.
The new CCP leadership was called “Political Enemy Team”
because they have different opinions on strategy,
belong to different factions,
have grudges and conflicts of interests.
Among the 7 members of Politburo Standing Committee,
apart from Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, the other 5 are in their 60s.
Analysts have pointed out that these 5 old men
will be stumbling blocks for Xi-Li.
Meng Yuanpei, a political commentator,
“Now, the CCP is seeking stability. It’s afraid of chaos.
Stability is its first priority.
That’s the reason why they have this new leadership.
In the CCP, the old people make the decision, the former
leaders make the choice which includes Hu Jintao’s fate.
Hu didn’t take another term as Chairman of
the Central Military Commission.
Many people said it is Hu’s decision.
No! It is the result of the factions struggling.”
Meng Yuanpei thought the reason why
in the last generation change,
the members of Standing Committee changed from 7 to 9,
to expand the power of Jiang Zemin’s faction.
Now, the reason why it’s changed back to 7 is to get rid of
Li Yuanchao and Wang Yang, this will make it easier to limit Xi Jinping’s power.
No matter if the members are 7 or 9,
the arrangement has been decided by Jiang Zemin.
Meng Yuanpei: “China’s politic is very dark. It’s old leaders
decide the successors, the dead decide for the living.
In this scenario, the one who is conservative,
who doesn’t have the concept of reform,
who safeguards the interests of authority
will take the lead.
The one who has a slightly open mind and ideas
or is considered unstable or whose speeches are too free
That person will be pushed aside.
So, the current situation is in a mess.”
Meng Yuanpei also said that there’re more leftists in the
current Standing Committee and this could impact Xi Jinping’s strategy.
He thinks there’s Wen Jiaobao who can speak a little bit
in the former Committee, but right now there’s nobody who dares speak.”
Zhang Lifan is a Chinese historian. He told Deutsche Welle
that in the grip of conservative forces, Xi Jinping will find it hard to move forward.
If China is continuing to combine Party and Regime,
is continuing to lead by the Party,
it’s possible that the civil will do different from the official,
and will separate from it in future.
Li Shanjian, a political commentator told NTD:
Li Shanjian: ”CCP’s politic can’t be solved by one or two
open leaders. The issue is that the whole system is wrong.
There’s one thing that can be emphasized,
it’s that it’s definitely evil.
Under this kind of system, even open-minded people
can’t do what they want or need to do.
In other words, the system will continue to be ineffective
and hampered until the CCP is destroyed completely.”
Deutsche Welle combined the reports of German media and
reported that the system will limit the new CCP leaders.
It reported: ”How can a person control and break the state-owned
economic giants, and just act in the country’s interest?”
Up until now, Xi hasn’t taken any actions or decisions
that have deviated from Party policy.”
The Taiwan Business Week magazine reported that in the
last year, there have been more than 200,000 cases of large-scale protests and strikes in China.
Official corruption in China is world-famous.
There’s also a record of the regime encouraging construction,
whilst not caring about pollution which led to 750,000 deaths in one year alone.
High public discontent will force the new leadership
headed Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang
to rely on the growing economy
to maintain the legality of its rule.
However, when Hu-Wen transferred the power to Xi-Li,
the Chinese economy suffers a serious bottleneck with problematic export figures,
huge inflationary pressure, a bubble in the real estate market,
a huge gap between rich and poor, increasing social conflict,
political corruption, plus no freedom of speech or assembly
and no freedom of belief, and so on.
All of those are points that people have mentioned
in questioning the legality of the CCP’s rule.
All of these issues are political topics that Xi-Li
will not be able to avoid dealing with during their rule.
