【新唐人2013年02月23日讯】夺回钓鱼岛，很可能成为中共“习李体制”的三大新政策之一。据报导，新上台的中共总书记习近平掌权后将有大动作，三月下旬很可能对日本发动攻势，夺回钓鱼岛。但分析指出，中共“造舆论”，实际只是为了维持大陆民众的民族主义情绪，转移民众对政府的不满。中日双方会不会为了钓鱼岛而不顾一切的打一场战争？多数认为：可能性不大。为什么呢？请看以下的分析报导。
中共新领导人习近平、李克强将在3月15号正式上台，日本最新一期的周刊现代杂志，专访了一名中共高干，这名人士指出，中国有句俚语新官上任三把火，习、李政权必然会列出三大新政策，就像十年前胡锦涛、温家宝体制起步后，提出“对抗SARS、举办六方会谈、应对伊拉克战争”三大新政策一样。而夺回钓岛，很可能成为习、李体制的三大新政策之一。
这名消息人士解读指出，习近平在2010年大力推动中、台自由贸易协定，下一步很可能与台湾合作一起“夺回钓岛”。
2月15号上午，三艘中国海监船再度进入钓鱼岛领海，中国海洋局也在同一天对外表示，海监船将继续于钓鱼岛中国领海中执勤。
钓鱼岛的紧张局势，会不会演变为中日战争﹖
据了解，美国一再表示，尊重日本现在管治钓鱼岛的现状。而且，钓鱼岛的安全问题，实际是在美国跟日本的安全条约范围之内。因此，中共一旦对钓鱼岛有所行动，势必把美国也拉进去。
而时政评论家伍凡认为，美国现在对中共的态度趋于强硬。
伍凡：“因为它（中共）对日本行动，要看美国的态度。美国现在很强硬！现在网路战在中共来讲，是和钓鱼岛基本上连在一起了。给美国施加压力，现在美国要反击。”
不过，有媒体分析，打击日本是中共高层利用对外政策，转移内部矛盾、凝聚民心的一个选项！
中国问题独立评论员李善鉴认为，习近平并不是真正的对领土那么感兴趣，他主要的考虑点，在于国内的政治。
李善鉴：“一方面，中共现在已经没有什么人在相信它这个主义了，用民族主义来维持它的统治、来提高它的凝聚力，所以搞这个争端。可是，它又不敢太过，失控的话，其实对它的统治又不利。”
伍凡：“我的感觉，它是利用民族主义这个情绪来支持它这个政权，来对抗美国和日本。但是它的火侯，一根一根点，不易让它烧起来，这种状况在我看来，习近平认为对他是最有利的。不完全打战，但他把火往上引！他用这个情绪来控制民族主义来为他服务，把其他的社会矛盾转移和压下去。但是矛盾总爆发也有可能。你能控制得住现在老百姓的情绪吗﹖”
伍凡表示，现在是网上对垒的时候，还没到真正开打的时候。但是如果继续对垒下去，总有一天会爆发。他说，习近平想把俄国人也拉进来!因为习近平一上任国家主席后，外访的第一站已经选择去俄国。
而李善鉴认为，现在除了民族主义之外，习近平没有其他更有效的办法来转移民众对政府的不满。
李善鉴：“每闹那么一回，每折腾那么一回，那些真正的想爱国的、对中国领土确实是关心的，甚至愿意自己做出牺牲的这些人，那他们慢慢的也会看出这个党，其实它并没有真正的采取真正的实质作法，来把领土拿回来。当然越来越多的人明白的时候，可能它游戏也就玩不下去了。”
李善鉴还提到，其实这么多年来，很多人都在议论中共军队的腐败和战斗力等等，说：如果真正军队一开战的时候，士兵枪口对着谁?都不好说！
采访/田净 编辑/周平 后制/周天
Retaking the Diaoyu Islands, a New Policy by Xi-Li?
Retaking the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands is likely one of
three major new polices under the new Xi-Li administration.
Reportedly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) new leader
Xi Jinping will take tough actions after taking office in March.
In late March, the CCP regime may launch an offensive
against Japan, to seize back the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands.
Commentators say that the CCP hypes nationalism aiming to
fuel public emotion and divert discontent from the regime.
Will the Diaoyu Islands issue evolve into a real war
between China and Japan?
The majority think it’s unlikely.
Let’s see what reasons have driven to this conclusion.
On March 15, CCP new leaders Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang
will assume office.
The latest issue of Japan’s Shūkan Gendai magazine
quoted a source of CCP senior official.
He mentioned an old Chinese saying,
“A new official applies strict measures.”
The informant said that the Xi-Li administration will follow
their predecessors to initiate three major new polices.
Ten years ago when taking office, Hu Jintao and
Wen Jiabao put forth three new polices.
Those were “combating SARS, holding Six-Party Talks,
and and coping with the war in Iraq.”
So, under the reign of Xi-Li, retaking the Diaoyu
(Senkaku) Islands is likely to be listed as one new policy, said the Japanese magazine article.
According to the CCP senior official, Xi Jinping vigorously
promoted Sino-Taiwan free trade agreement in 2010.
Xi’s next step may probably be to cooperate with Taiwan
to “recapture” the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands.
On February 15, three Chinese ocean surveillance ships
re-entered the Diaoyu Islands territorial waters.
The same day, China’s Oceanic Administration declared that
the Chinese ships will continue to be on duty.
Will tensions over the Diaoyu Islands escalate and
cause a Sino-Japanese war?
Reportedly, the U.S. has repeatedly stated that Japan’s
current governance of the Diaoyu Islands must be respected.
The U.S-Japan security treaty covers protection of
the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands.
Therefore, once the CCP takes action,
that will inevitably drag in the U.S..
Critic Wu Fan says that the U.S. attitude towards the CCP
is getting tougher.
Wu Fan: “The CCP will see the U.S. stance before
taking actions. Now the U.S. takes a very tough attitude.
The CCP has integrated cyber warfare in its actions
on the Diaoyu Islands.
It aims to pressure the U.S.,
while now the U.S. turns to fight back.”
Media analyzed that “combating Japan” is a tactic used by
the CCP leadership to divert attention from domestic conflicts and to rally popular support.
Li Shanjian, an independent commentator, says that
Xi Jinping isn’t really interested in the issue of territory.
The focal point that Xi considers is China’s politics.
Li Shanjian: “On one hand,
no CCP members believe in its ideology.
So the CCP uses nationalism to maintain its rule and
to bolster cohesion within the Party,
the real reason behind its actions on the issue.
But it dares not overdo it, as losing control will cause
negative impact on its rule.”
Wu Fan: “I think that by stirring up public national sentiment,
the CCP tries to cement its rule and to confront the U.S. and Japan.
But it controls the temperature below boiling point.
I think this is the most favorable situation to Xi Jinping,
not staging a real war, but adding wood to make a fire.
He uses this public sentiment to divert and downplay
from social contradictions. But social conflict may finally erupt.
Today, who can stop Chinese citizens’ venting of
their sentiments?”
Wu Fan adds that now it’s at a cyber-war stage,
not actual physical combat.
But if the cyber-war continues, a real war will be staged
one day. He speculates that Xi Jinping intends to drag in Russia.
This is because Xi has chosen Russia as his first
international trip as new state president.
Li Shanjian says that for Xi Jinping, nationalism is the only
card to play to distract popular discontent away from the regime’s corruption and other issues.
Li Shanjian: “After causing so much turmoil organized
in the name of nationalism,
those Chinese who truly care about the Chinese territory
have come to see the CCP’s true face.
That is, it has never really taken action in practice to
regain territory.
Certainly, when more people come to understand the truth,
the CCP’s game will be over.”
Li Shanjian indicates that over the years, corruption and the
combat effectiveness of the CCP military has been a hot topic.
However, during a real war, who will be the army’s target?
——it’s hard to draw a conclusion now!
