【新唐人2015年02月03日讯】近来一连串的事件显示，中国的社会不安有上升趋势。美国著名智库企业研究所研究员欧世林（Michael Auslin），在《华尔街日报》评论指出，许多在美国的中国观察员一致认为，中共统治中国或将进入了倒计时的“黄昏期”。专家建议，如果华盛顿不想被中共的“政治地震”搞得措手不及，从现在就应该开始关注这个问题。
2月1号，《苹果日报》台湾版报导，中共教育部长袁贵仁之子、北京出版社教材中心总编辑袁昕，涉嫌运用父亲影响力，让自己旗下的12套中小学教材，全部审核通过，获利高达24亿人民币。
1号，《自由亚洲电台》报导，数千名内蒙古牧民抗议草场被中共当局低价强征，他们在乌兰花镇举行抗议游行，警方展开拘捕行动，其中13人被拘留或传唤。
1月31号，《明报》报导，中国绝大部分省份GDP增幅未达预期、人民币接连跌停、全国GDP增幅创24年新低。中共喉舌《人民日报》却以全版的篇幅，试图论证中共搞经济有一套，并为此大唱赞歌。有网友说，在当前严峻形势下，党报还敢这么说，可见满篇是谎言。
1月30号，中国大批访民前往地方两会召开的会场，找代表反映冤情，遭大批警力拦截。失望之余，上千名的上海访民决定集体上访北京。
1月31号，《维权网》消息指出，为了阻止如潮的年底上访，湖南地方当局采取维稳阴招，一旦发现某个访民的亲属在机关单位工作，或者是拥有一官半职的话，就明确告诉访民说如不息访，纪委就要查访民亲属的问题。
从以上的种种迹象来看，中国内部骚动或社会不安有上升的趋势。
美国《华尔街日报》，最近发表了一篇华府智库美国企业研究所学者欧世林（Michael Auslin）的评论文章。这篇标题为“中国共产党的黄昏”，提醒西方国家关注中国的局势变化，提早思考没有中共的中国政策。
作者在文章开头就写着，“我不能给你它彻底终结的确切日期，但中国共产党已经走入最后阶段了。”
欧世林观察到，中国权贵阶层纷纷为自己和家人准备后路，甚至包括中产阶级在内的有钱人，向海外转移资产和移民的趋势也十分明显。
文章分析，中共党内分裂严重，以及社会对执政当局的信心严重低落。中共领导人习近平近来的反腐动作，已经使得权力集中到极限。但中国正面临着经济放缓，可能导致中产阶级生活品质滑落，任何潜在的大规模骚动都可能让中共当局“短路”，面临危机。
时事评论员张健：“我觉得现在中国的情况非常复杂，因为少数民族的问题，港澳台的问题，然后在中国内部无法产生一个统一的声音，习近平虽然选择性的铁腕式反腐，但是他并不能彻底根治中国的腐败，因为中国共产党它就是最大的腐败根源，如果想彻底消除，彻底还政于民的话，那中共就要解体，这是他应该选择的一条道路。”
日前，中共政治局也承认，中共内外正面临极大危险。
时事评论员张健：“现在面临的一个问题，就是中共必须要下台，中共必须将自己的政权还政于民，让中国人民（有）自由选择自己领导人的权利，当这个权利实现的时候，那么所有的问题都会迎刃而解。”
《华尔街日报》的文章最后强调，无论中共还有多少时日，人们都应该“站在历史正确的一方”，才是明智的选择。
采访编辑/黄千容 后制/舒灿
WSJ: The Twilight of China’s Communist Party
The increasing unrest in the Chinese society is demonstrated
by a series of incidents.
Michael Auslin is a Resident Scholar
at the American Enterprise Institute.
In his Opinion in the Wall Street Journal, he referred to a general
agreement from China experts that China’s Communist Party
has entered its endgame.
He suggested that Washington should start paying attention
if it wishes to avoid being surprised
by China’s political earthquakes.
Apple Daily reported a shocking corruption case
in the education sector on Feb. 1.
The textbook material center editor, Yuan Xin, of Beijing
Publishing Group is alleged to earn profits as high as 2.4 billion
yuan through the approval and adoption of 12 sets of middle
and elementary school textbooks that he’s in charge of.
Yuan has used his father’s influence in the field.
His father, Yuan Guiren is the minister
of the Communist Ministry of Education.
Radio Free Asia reported that thousands of herders
in Inner Mongolia have gathered and protested recently,
against forced land acquisition and low compensation.
Police suppressed the protest and arrested 13 herders.
Ming Pao Daily News commented that while China is
experiencing lack of GDP growth in most provinces,
the devaluating RMB, and the 24-year low national GDP,
the regime mouthpiece People’s Daily spent a full-page on Jan. 30
praising the economic success of the regime.
No wonder netizens would criticize
the party newspaper is full of lies.
Jan 30 huge numbers of Chinese petitioners sought redress
of their grievances during the local Two Sessions
but only met suppression by the police.
In disappointment, thousands of Shanghai petitioners
decided on a collective petition in Beijing.
Chinese Human Rights Defenders reported Hunan provincial
authorities have launched a new strategy
to maintain stability recently.
In order to stop waves of petitions before Chinese New Year,
petitioner’s relatives in the government or public sectors
will be investigated by the disciplinary sector, if the petitioner
does not immediately stop the complaints.
All of the above only reflects part
of the rising social unrest in China.
Michael Auslin, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute
in Washington, D.C. recently published his Opinion in WSJ.
In his article entitled, “The Twilight of China’s Communist Party,"
Auslin reminded Washington to start paying attention
and engage in strategies to deal with a post-Communist China.
He cited, “I can not give you a date when it will fall,
but China’s Communist Party has entered its endgame."
He wrote, “The elite hold foreign passports for their families,
and wealth is being transferred offshore through real estate
holdings and other means."
He analyzed the internecine war within the party
and the cynical and disenchanted Chinese.
He wrote, “The clearest manifestation of Mr. Xi’s power is
the unprecedented crackdown on corruption."
But, “Faced with an economic slowdown that may impact
the living standards of the middle class,
Mr. Xi is short-circuiting any potential large-scale unrest."
Commentator Zhang Jian: “I think the situation in China now
is very complicated, the lack of a unified voice on issues
such as the minorities, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan
and so forth.
Xi Jinping selectively targeted his iron-fist on fighting
corruption, but that won’t eradicate corruption in China.
The Chinese Communist Party is the root cause of corruption.
To eliminate the corruption, to return governance
to the people, the disintegration of the CCP is a must.
This is the path he should choose."
Recently, the CCP Politburo also acknowledged that
the CCP is facing great danger internally and externally.
Zhang Jian: “The real issue is the CCP has to step down,
the CCP must give the government back to the people,
let the Chinese people freely choose their own leaders.
All the problems will only get resolved
when people’s rights are realized."
At the end of the Opinion, it is emphasized,
“The endgame in China may not come for years.
But being on the right side of history,
no matter how messy it turns out, is the wise play."
Interview & Edit/Huang Qianrong Post-Production/ShuCan
