【新唐人2012年2月20日讯】重庆市副市长王立军闯入成都美领馆之后，有传闻说，重庆市党委书记薄熙来指派重庆市市长黄奇帆，率领70辆警车包括装甲车，越界包围领馆，这被认为是一次极其严重的“谋反”行动。而在此之后，薄熙来公开在云南参观一个由他父亲薄一波创建的第14集团军﹔另外海外媒体日前报导，重庆空军有异常举动。那么，如果有军队支持，薄熙来是否会谋反？又有多大的胜算，请看一下报导。
薄熙来的死党王立军出逃美领馆，一行携带武器的警察和武警从300公里外的重庆赶到四川成都，被认为这是一个重大的谋反行动。而薄熙来之后又若无其事的参观云南部队的军史陈列室，则显得极不寻常。
对此，英国《金融时报》认为：“合理的程序是薄熙来应该被召到北京，解释成都发生的事件，但是他却访问他父亲薄一波带过的云南第14集团军。我们还没有看到中央政府发出的已经控制住了局面的强烈信号，这非常反常，也有些让人不安。”
中共治国方略之一就是对军队与地方“分而治之”，防止地方诸侯兼管军队“造反”。但薄熙来却率先打破惯例，在去年11月胡锦涛去夏威夷参加APEC峰会时，邀请成都军区国家国防动员委员会，在重庆举行所谓“第六实兵演练”，大搞军事演习，同时还邀请了国防部长梁光烈，成都军区司令员李世明等军头。
中国历史学专家李元华认为，中共高层争权的核心是争军权，而且中共最高官一直是把持军权，从地方爬到中央也是想攫取军权。
中国历史学者李元华：“实际上中共它一直是害怕军队出问题的，所以它一届上来的话，它都是拉拢军队方面的人，而给军队一些好的福利。它就觉得军队都支持他心里才安全，因为它们本来就是靠军队夺权的。”
李元华认为，薄熙来表明有军队支持，是在向高层讨价还价，威胁对方，不要轻易动武。而中共高层想扳倒薄熙来，就是因为他犯了地方诸侯的大忌。
中国历史学者李元华：“地方势力不管多大，它不可以军事演习。因为中共的军事演习，实际上都是显示最高统治者对军队控制权力的一种能力的像征。如果一个地方诸侯去做这种举动的话，对它来讲就是一种僭越行为，那么它肯定会恼火的，肯定会找时机秋后算账的。”
不过，王立军事件已经将中共内部矛盾和斗争推向国际。最近有两名美国官员透露，王立军向美国方面提供了中共高层腐败的材料，其中涉及政治局常委周永康，还有薄熙来这些强硬派如何想整垮中共国家副主席习近平，不让他顺利接班。
时政评论专家章天亮认为，王立军案才刚刚开始。
时政评论家章天亮：“王立军还有一个很重要的杀手锏，这个消息已经在美国人手中了。薄熙来问题绝不是贪腐的问题，而是一个造反。他所掌握的证据真正能够向国安也好、或者胡锦涛啊，或者中纪委讲的是薄熙来这个谋反的问题，而不是一个经济问题。”
章天亮指出，薄熙来对当地的武警有绝对的控制权，可以调动很多武警﹔而胡锦涛要调动“一个连”都需要和两个军委副主席商量，所以目前中共中央对薄熙来也感到棘手。
不过，尽管如此，海外舆论几乎一边倒的预见了薄熙来即将“玩完”。
新唐人记者刘惠、宋风、王明宇采访报导。
How Much Leverage Does Bo Xilai, Communist Party (CCP)
Secretary of Chongqing, Have For His Possible Rebellion?
Chongqing’s Vice Mayor Wang Lijun unexpectedly visited
the US consulate in Chengdu.
Sources said the diplomatic unit was under a military siege
ordered by Bo Xilai, CCP Secretary of Chongqing.
Bo ordered Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan to take 70 police
cars including armored vehicles to besiege the US consulate.
The trans-border operation was viewed as serious “rebellion”.
After that, Bo Xilai openly visited the 14th Group Army in
Yunnan, which was set up by his father, Bo Yibo.
The latest overseas news reported the unusual move from
Air Force based in Chongqing.
So, will Bo rebel if he were supported by the army?
As Bo’s diehard buddy Wang Lijun fled to US consulate in
Chengdu, armed police rushed there from Chongqing.
Bo’s act was seen as major rebellion.
Yet afterwards Bo met the army in Yunnan.
He acted as if nothing had happened, which is highly unusual.
UK’s Financial Times reviewed, “A reasonable procedure
should have called Bo to Beijing to explain the incident.
Rather, Bo paid a visit to the 14th Group Army that had
followed his father, Bo Yibo.
No obvious signal has been given by (CCP) central authorities
controlling the situation. Extremely unusual and disconcerting."
Separating armies and local authorities is CCP’s strategy to
prevent regional leadership controlling armies for rebellion.
Bo Xilai became the first to break the rule in Nov. 2011 when
Hu Jintao was attending the APEC summit in Hawaii.
Bo held “6th military exercise" in Chongqing. The guest list
included Liang Guanglie, CCP Defense Minister, Li Shiming,
Chengdu Military Region Commander. Also the National
Defense Mobilization Committee of Chengdu Military Region.
Chinese history expert Li Yuanhua thinks army power grab
is the core of infighting among CCP’s top leadership.
CCP’s top head is traditionally the army chief. CCP officials
seeking promotion are also in pursuit of army power, Li feels.
Li Yuanhua: “Actually the CCP always fears the army going
astray.
So every new generation of its leadership hooked in the
army, offering troops some welfare benefits.
Only gaining army support makes leadership feel secure.
The regime seized the state power by relying on troops."
Bo signals that he has military support, making horse trading
with the CCP top leadership, Li Yuanhua analyzes.
So Bo coerces the opponent: Don’t easily use force.
Why do the CCP top-level want to bring down Bo?
Because Bo violates CCP’s taboo on its regional officials.
Li Yuanhua: “No matter how powerful a local force is,
he cannot hold any military exercise.
All CCP’s military exercises are displays of its top leader’s
military control, a symbol, in fact.
But if a regional leader does the same, that’s overstepping the
power line in the view of the CCP top level.
It will certainly be annoying, and the leadership will look for
opportunities for retaliation."
In reality, the Wang Lijun incident has pushed CCP’s
infighting out to the world.
Lately, two U.S. officials said that Wang Lijun handed over
files about CCP top-level corruptions.
Some implicate Zhou Yongkang, one of CCP Politburo
Standing Committee member.
There is also evidence linking Bo’s forces plotting to topple
the upcoming succession of Xi Jinping, CCP Vice President.
Political Critic Zhang Tianliang thinks the Wang Lijun case
has just begun.
Zhang Tianliang (Political Critic): “Wang Lijun has another
important trump card, which has been handed to the U.S.
Bo’s trouble is not only limited to corruption, but a rebellion.
The evidence Wang will disclose to CCP’s national security
or Hu Jintao, is actually Bo’s rebellion, not of the economy."
Zhang Tianliang notes that Bo Xilai has absolute control over
local armed police.
By contrast, Hu Jintao has to consult with two vice chairmen
of Central Military Committee to deploy “an army company”.
So the CCP central committee feels Bo Xilai is being
troublesome.
In spite of this, the overseas media overwhelmingly predicted
that Bo Xilai’ s power trip is about to end.
NTD reporters Liu Hui, Song Feng and Wang Mingyu
