【新唐人2013年01月28日讯】因钓鱼岛争端而紧张升级的中日关系，在1月25号，中共新领导人习近平接见日本公明党主席山口那津男后，是否有突破性的进展？专家分析，虽然中日双方都许诺积极促进首脑会议，讨论缓解钓鱼岛危机，但习近平的谈话并没有实质内容，而安培的亲笔信也只是礼节性示好，中日在钓鱼岛上对峙还有很长的路要走。
山口在会面时向习近平转交了日本首相安倍的亲笔信。习近平表示，钓鱼岛问题要妥善管控。安倍26号对于习近平将“认真研究”的日中首脑会谈，积极回应说：“希望打开对话的大门。”
今年1月以来，中日在钓鱼岛的军事对峙，使得双方紧张局势一触即发，引起美国等国际社会的高度关注。前大陆史学教授刘因全分析认为，中日双方都希望通过这次会面能稍微缓和一下高层的政治关系。
前大陆史学教授刘因全﹕“习近平在党内的地位基本确立了，在这种情况下，他不希望在钓鱼岛上擦枪走火，发生意想不到的后果，所以我相信习近平有缓和的意图。美国也不希望日本跟中国之间因为钓鱼岛问题打起来，这样也不符合美国的利益，在这种情况下，山口这次访华，给安培和习近平都有一个台阶，让双方向缓和方向发展。”
1月26号，日本公明党关联的“创价学会”名誉会长池田大作，呼吁中日首脑定期会谈制度，并建议针对中国最近多个城市陷入雾霾的空气污染现状，创设中日两国“东亚环境协力机构”等。“英国广播电台BBC”分析，这是中日会谈后，公明党迅速制定具体计划的第一波。
独立评论员张健：“如果中国一旦接受日本对中国的环境治理的话，那就是把中共所有从上到下的官员，包括环保局，统统全部打了一个最响亮的耳光，而且中国人会看到，最终中国人民呼吸的空气，中国人民饮的水，还得是让小日本来帮我们完成，这不是天下最滑稽的事情﹖我相信如果中共答应了日本这样做的话，中国的民间可能会反弹更加激烈。”
据有关消息透露，安倍的亲笔信里，主要是对习近平的礼节性问候，并无任何有关钓鱼岛的实质性内容或建议。而习近平在会见山口时，也只是官话强调“中方在钓鱼岛问题上的立场是一贯和明确的。”
国际权威媒体《外交政策》杂志曾刊文披露，近些年中共政府在领土争端中并没有寸土必争。中共最大的卖国贼——江泽民早在1999年与俄罗斯签定的《中俄边界条约》，将总面积超过300多万平方公里土地，约相当于100个台湾，正式划归俄罗斯。
中共对钓鱼岛的立场，独立评论员张健提出质疑。
张健：“我不认为这对缓解钓鱼岛的紧张局势有任何的帮助，因为钓鱼岛也是一个丧权辱国的条约，因为是在中共的手中钓鱼岛被送出去了，同样在中共手中大片的山河也送出去了，他为什么不对日本索要。在江泽民手中签了这么多丧权辱国的条约怎么办？能不能拿回来？”
张健认为，钓鱼岛的领土归属并不是中共实际想要解决的问题，只是被中共拿来作为释放内政压力的一个出气筒。
张健：“当初你（中共）已经定了钓鱼岛是人家的，现在你去拿，是非常非常困难的一件事，中共现在根本就不想去做，不想去解决这个问题。中共在过去的钓鱼岛问题上，在丧权辱国的条约上，到他（习近平）这一代政府继续为它（中共）买单，责无旁贷，他只是尽他买单的义务而已。”
日本《每日新闻》对这次的中日会见评价，说：“围绕尖阁诸岛（中国称为钓鱼岛）主权，双方隔阂仍大，加上中国警惕安倍的右倾路线，看不到实现首脑会谈的出路”。
1月25号，日本政府召开内阁会议，正式决定修改现行的《防卫计划大纲》，重点加强对钓鱼岛所处西南海域的防卫和监视。而在中国的一家造船厂，第一艘计划用于常驻钓鱼台海域的万吨级大型渔政执法船，日前开工建造。
外界认为，双方目前都在为钓鱼岛持久对峙作准备。
采访/刘惠 编辑/许旻 后制/周天
Diaoyu Islands: Long-Term Confrontation Expected
Sino-Japanese relations have intensified with
escalation over the Diaoyu(Senkaku) Islands dispute.
Xin Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)´s
new leader, recently met with Natsuo Yamaguchi,
President of Japan´s New Komeito Party (NKP).
Will a breakthrough be made after this meeting?
Experts remark that although both sides promised
to promote the summit talks to ease tensions over
the land crisis, Xi Jinping´s talks lacks substance.
Experts also think the personal letters from Japan´s
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe´s are merely ceremonial
Long-term confrontation is expected to occur over
the Diaoyu Islands, according to commentators.
In the meeting, Natsuo Yamaguchi passed on to Xi Jinping
a personal letter from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Xi said that the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands
issue shall be handled prudently.
He will “seriously consider" holding a summit with Abe.
Yamaguchi responded positively, in that,
“we expect to open the door to dialogue.”
A Sino-Japanese military confrontation
over the Diaoyu Islands still continues.
There is high international concern over the ongoing tension
Liu Yinquan, a former history professor in China, comments.
Liu thinks that through this meeting, both sides aim to
slightly ease tension between top-level political relations.
Liu Yinquan: “Xi Jinping has placed his feet inside the Party.
He doesn´t want to see escalation on the Diaoyu dispute,
and any unexpected consequences being triggered.
I speculate that Xi Jinping has intentions of easing friction.
The U.S. also doesn´t want to see a
China-Japan war, which isn´t in its interest.
Under this circumstance, Yamaguchi´s visit
to China offered a way out for both sides. This helps ease the situation.”
On January 26, Daisaku Ikeda, President of Soka Gakkai
International, a closely associated organization with
the NKP, called for regular China-Japan summit talks.
He proposed to set up a Sino-Japan coordination
agency to deal with environmental issues.
This includes China´s wide scale air pollution.
The BBC reported that this is the NKP´s first
action plan after the recent China-Japan meeting.
Zhang Jian, independent critic: “Once China accepts Japan´s
environmental proposal, that´d be a slap in the CCP´s face.
That is, China will only eventually achieve acceptable
levels of air and drinking water quality with Japan´s help.
Isn´t it the funniest thing in the world?
I believe if the CCP accepts this proposal, there´ll
be more sharp backlash from ordinary folks in China.”
Reportedly, Prime Minister Abe just
presented a courtesy greeting to Xi Jinping.
The letter didn´t involve any substantive
content or suggestions on the Diaoyu dispute.
When meeting with Yamaguchi, Xi Jinping just
stated that “China’s position on the Diaoyu
Islands issue has been consistent and clear."
Foreign Policy magazine reported that
Chinese leaders have conceded territory.
“Or at least [they have] given up long-asserted
territorial claims rather liberally in recent years to
settle frontier disputes with neighboring countries.”
“With the Soviet Union and then the Russian
Federation, successive negotiations were also
concluded successfully on a roughly 50/50 basis.”
Zhang Jian questions what position
the CCP holds on the Diaoyu dispute.
Zhang Jian: “I don´t think this can help
ease tensions over the Diaoyu dispute.
The Diaoyu Islands was given
away by the CCP regime.
What´s more, it has ceded some other large-scale territories.
What´s to be done about those humiliating treaties
that Jiang Zemin signed. Are we able to annul them?”
Zhang Jian analyzes that the CCP never aims
to solve the claims over the Diaoyu Islands.
Rather, it uses the issue to serve as
a vent to the pressures of internal affairs.
Zhang Jian: “In the past, the CCP agreed with
Japan´s sovereignty claim over the Diaoyu Islands.
Now it attempts to take it back, that´s nearly impossible.
The CCP doesn´t actually want
to solve this problem at the moment.
From the past until now, the regime has continuously
paid the price for the issues of the Diaoyu Islands
and of those humiliating treaties it has signed.
So under Xi Jinping administration, it´s still an
inescapable duty for the regime to pay for this.”
Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun newspaper commented
on the recent China-Japan meeting.
It said, “on sovereignty claims of the Senkaku
Islands (the Diaoyu Islands in Chinese),
a large gap still exists in both sides.
China is vigilant against Abe´s rightists approach,
and the conclusion of the summit is still unclear.”
On January 25, the Japan´s cabinet meeting decided to
modify the existing National Defense Program Outline.
It will focus on strengthening the defense and surveillance
of the southwestern waters of the Diaoyu Islands.
Meanwhile, China has recently started constructing
the first law enforcement vessel, which will be
deployed permanently for the Diaoyu islands waters.
Observers said that both sides are preparing to stage
a lasting confrontation over the Diaoyu Islands dispute.
