【新唐人2014年01月08日讯】大陆将推动民间资本进入银行业，首批试点3至5家。但是到目前为止，还没有看到中共当局对民营银行提出相关规则草案。专家担心，当前的政策和体制还没有完善，放开民营银行有不少风险。而这些所谓的“民营银行”是否真的能独立私营，未来还是个问号。同时，这个试点作法，恐怕还是黑箱操作。
6号召开的2014年全国银行业监管工作会议，银监会提出，2014年要扩大银行业对内对外开放，试办由纯民资发起设立自担风险的银行业金融机构，首批试点3至5家。银监会前副主席蔡鄂生此前表示，民营银行牌照第一批有望在3月份前发牌。
据了解，中国民间几大资本家对成立民营银行跃跃欲试，其中阿里巴巴、苏宁云商、腾讯、百度等互联网厂商，纷纷递交银行牌照申请。
北京天则经济研究所副所长盛洪：“本来就应该开放民间的银行，这不是什么令人高兴的消息，他们做了，勉强开放一、两家，好像是恩赐一样，这个我觉得没有什么觉得兴奋的。这个市场经济大家就应该进入金融机构。”
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“但是这些银行一旦出现的时候，是不是能够私营，真正独立的私营，能不能和中共的国有银行公平竞争，这是一个巨大的问号，我认为在当今的中共绝对统治、绝对独裁的专政制度条件下，这种民营或私人民间的资本，这样做还是有风险的。”
“中央财经大学银行业研究中心”主任郭田勇对媒体表示，“对于民营资本办银行的风险，主要有三个方面：第一，担心民营企业家或民营资本不懂银行；第二，担心民营银行出现利益输送，搞关联交易；第三，担心民营资本没办好银行卷钱外逃，给社会带来严重影响。”
根据中共银监会的说法，将拓宽民间资本进入银行业的管道方式，一方面引导民间资本参与现有银行业金融机构的重组改制﹔另一方面试办由纯民资发起设立自担风险的银行业金融机构。
谢田：“我觉得不是太看好，对民间的资本家来说，这可能也不是一个非常好的机会。中共对中国的金融的控制实际上是不会放松的，现在说有限制的放行试点，首先试批几家几家，这种作法全部都是属于黑箱操作，因为在正常国家，如果任何人愿意设立私营银行，他只要满足条件就可以，不需要政府来决定几家。”
“英国广播公司《BBC》”报导，中共当局开放严格控制的金融业，主要是想创造刺激经济增长的一个新的浪潮。
谢田：“中共为什么在这个时候，拓宽民间资本进入银行业呢？我想是跟中共国有银行出现的钱荒有关，他们实际感觉到资金短缺，现金流短缺，流动性短缺，实际是希望让民间的资本，用另一个方式进入流通，为这个经济缓解一些压力，所以在这种情况下，我们可以看到，中共实际上是另有目地、别有用心的，而不是真正希望民间的资本坐大。”
盛洪：“我们没必要载歌载舞去欢庆这件事情，这件事情本来他们该做没有做。国有的它欠债很多，他们很多年都是坏帐，坏帐比例高达30％、40％，就让纳税人去承担这样的一个结果，这不是很可笑的事吗？”
中共审计署上周公布报告指出，截至去年6月底，中国地方政府负债高达人民币17万9000亿元，高于2010年底的人民币10万7000亿元。
根据美国《彭博社》报导，自2008年全球金融危机以来，中国就开始以大量信贷，提供大量资金，进行国内投资，以飙升令全球垂涎的高GDP数字，因此整体借贷数字成长十分快速，从2008年占GDP的125％，到2012年时已高达215％，信贷数字如滚雪球般成长。
采访/常春 编辑/黄亿美 后制/郭敬
Financial Expert: No Optimism In China’s Private Bank Pilot Plan
China wants banks to tap private capital.
The regime has approved a pilot plan to set up
three to five private banks.
So far, the draft rules for these private banks
have not been issued.
Experts worry that the current policy and system have not
improved and there are many risks to opening private banks.
Can the so-called “private bank” operate independently?
The pilot plan is likely a black-box operation.
On Jan. 6, 2014, China Banking Regulatory Commission
(CBRC) reported that the banking sector will open up in 2014.
The pilot banks, formed by private capital,
are a self-risk financial institution.
The regulator has approved the first pilot plan to set up
three to five private banks.
Former CBRC Chairman Cai E’sheng said that the licenses
for the first batch of private banks are expected to be ready
before March.
Sources say that a handful of online commerce giants
including Alibaba, Suning, Tencent and Baidu have submitted
applications for licenses.
Sheng Hong, deputy director of Beijing Unirule Institute
of Economics: “There is nothing to be happy about regarding
private banks opening up.
They have barely opened one or two and they act like they
are doing the public a huge favor.
I think there is nothing to be excited about.
In a market-oriented economy, people should be allowed
to set up in the financial sector.”
Xie Tian, Business School, University of South
Carolina Aiken: “Once the private banks launch,
will they be truly independent operations?
Can they compete with state-owned banks?
This is a big question mark.
Under the communist rule and dictatorship, there are risks
for private owners to operate with private capital.”
Guo Tianyong, director of the Research Center of the Chinese
Banking Industry at Central University of Finance
and Economics told the media that there are three risks
for the private banks—
operators don’t understand the banking industry,
Party officials may attempt to make transfers,
and anyone who flees with money (a common occurrence
in China) when the operation fails will seriously
impact society.”
The CBRC is also planning to widen access for the private
sector to the state-assets-dominated banking sector.
It wants to guide private capital to participate
in the restructuring of the current financial institution.
On the other hand, these banks can set up a proper risk
management scheme by themselves.
Xie Tian: “I am not too optimistic.
For private business owners, it may not be a good opportunity.
Actually, the regime will not relax the financial sector.
Now there is a limited opening, they only approved a few.
It is a black-box operation.
In a standard country, if anyone wants to set up a private bank
and they meet the conditions, they don’t need to allow
the government to make the decision on how many can
be set up.”
A BBC report said, “China has been looking to open up its
tightly-controlled financial sector, to spur a fresh new wave
of economic growth.”
Xie Tian: “Why at this moment does China broaden
private capital access to the banking sector?
I think it relates to the shortage of money
in state-owned banks.
They know there is an issue of the shortage of funds,
cash flow, liquidity.
They intend to use private funds to ease the pressure.
Under such a circumstance, we can see that the regime
has ulterior motives.
They don’t really want private capital to grow.”
Sheng Hong: “We don’t need to celebrate.
They should have done this but they didn’t.
The state-owned businesses have many debts.
The bad debts have lasted for several years, and have reached
a bad debt ratio of 30 to 40 percent.
They let the taxpayers bear the brunt, isn’t it ridiculous?”
CBRC’s report stated that local governments had a total
outstanding debt of 17.9 trillion yuan (US$2.96 trillion)
at the end of June 2013, which is more than 2010’s
10.7 trillion yuan (US$1.77 trillion).
Bloomberg reports that since the financial crisis of 2008,
“China has racked up impressive growth in
gross domestic product (GDP) by engineering
an investment boom, fueled by a surge in easy credit.
Total debt has risen sharply, from 125 percent of the GDP
in 2008 to 215 percent in 2012.”
Interview/Changchun Edit/HuangYimei Post-Production/LiYongGuoJing
