【新唐人2014年02月21日讯】湖北武汉市在基础设施上的支出，相当于英国全国更新和改善基础结构的支出，不过武汉的债务也位居全中国第一。有评论指出，中共为了逃避全球金融危机，大肆投资刺激经济，造成中国的债务占国内生产总值GDP的比重，从2008年的大约125%增加到目前的200%。同时，强拆、贪腐、通货膨胀应运而生，正在造成整个中国社会灾难性崩溃。
“英国广播公司《BBC》”经济事务编辑罗伯特•派斯顿日前采访了武汉市长唐良智后，以《中国是否再次震撼世界》为题，论述了在全球经济萧条时，中共采取政府投资，国有银行敞开钱包，大搞基础建设的做法，使中共迎来的经济繁荣期，震撼了世界，不过这种投资，即将带来的社会全面崩溃，同样会震惊世界。
唐良智在接受采访时说，武汉5年内的建设计划，将花费2000亿英镑(约合人民币2万亿元)。《 BBC》指出，单单武汉一座城市在基础设施上的支出，就与英国全国更新和改善基础结构的支出相同。
报导说，武汉的这种投资是有毒投资。也许武汉比中国任何其他城市，更能讲述中国非凡的30年现代化和财富积累、和所谓经济奇迹如何接近尾声的故事，以及它为什么面临一个灾难性崩溃的严重危险。
截至2012年6月，武汉债务余额达2037亿500万元，政府两年内每天需要偿债1亿元。
旅美经济评论专家杰森.马：“中共绝不会让地方政府破产，它采取的办法就是印钞票，你欠1000块钱，印到一定程度，还500块就把这个帐还了，但这种通胀的方式，往往老百姓感觉不到，他更觉得是农贸市场的菜农在涨价，他意识不到是中央大量印钞搞出来的物价上涨。”
罗伯特•派斯顿论述，在过去的几年中，中国除每隔五天建成一座新的摩天大楼，还修建了30多个机场、25个城市的地铁、三座世界上最长的桥梁、超过6000英里的高速铁路线、和26000英里的高速公路，以及商用建筑和私人住宅的开发，达到了一个令人难以置信的规模。
他说，当一个大的经济体以这样快的速度进行投资，以催生财富与就业时，其中很大一部分投资将永远无法产生经济回报，从而成片成片的新建居民楼无人居住，整个城市里的灯从来没有亮起来，闪闪发光的高速公路几乎看不到车辆。
而中国的债务占国内生产总值的比例迅速上升，占GDP的比重，从2008年的大约125%增加到目前的200%。
最近大陆各种债务违约不断传出。据《财新网》20号最新消息，2014年至2016年，中国地方政府债务将进入偿债高峰期，地方债务违约风险正在加大。
北京天则经济研究所副所长冯兴元：“信托债务的违约在很多地方会继续发生，今年可能会更多一点，地方政府要还债的话，可能先对工程队拖欠，（借）新的债还旧的债，比较普遍，那个贷款很可能是不良贷款，还有财政部代地方政府发行的债，叫地方债，地方政府债务压力太大的话，除了加强收税之外，还有就是三乱，乱摊派，乱集资，乱收费。”
罗伯特•派斯顿说，对于整体经济而言，由债务推动的投资或消费带动的经济，会出现两种结果。如果贷款继续增长，崩溃成为不可避免的。
而法国“兴业银行”经济师帕特里克．莱格兰德指出，2014年中国的经济同期增长率可能会下降到2%。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利：“中国的GDP增长如果低于3%，那这个国家就很危险了，中国人们基本必需品的能源成本高，成本高就造成3%的GDP成长都消耗到成本里面去了。”
大陆《财讯网》在引述《BBC》的报导时，评论说，如此大规模的基础设施支出，必然会导致大面积的拆迁和重建，一部分百姓和官员将因此发家致富，而这一暴富隐藏的社会危害和政治危机，正在动摇着社会稳定的根基。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/钟元
Two Trillion Yuan Investment In Wuhan City – Toxic Black Hole
Infrastructural investment in Wuhan City, Hubei Province
is equivalent to the entire UK’s budget for infrastructure
improvements.
Wuhan’s ticking time bomb, debt level is also the worst in China.
Commentators point out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
have made this huge investment to stimulate the economy in order
to avoid the global financial crisis.
This had caused its debt to gross domestic product (GDP)
ratio surpassing by 200 times..
Meanwhile issues of demolitions, forced relocation,
corruption and inflation are emerging, leading to catastrophic
consequences for the entire Chinese society.
The BBC’s economic affairs editor Robert Peston recently
interviewed Wuhan City mayor Tang Liangzhi.
He wrote the article titled Will China Shock the World Again,
discussing the CCP government carrying out infrastructural
construction to generate an economic boom during the global
recession by investment via state-owned banks.
But the collapse of society could also be the result of
such investments and it would also shock the world.
Tang Liangshi said during the interview that Wuhan’s
construction planning for the next five years will cost about
2 trillion yuan.
The BBC pointed out that the spending of the city is the same as
the UK’s national spending on improving infrastructure.
The report stated that this kind of investment is toxic."But perhaps
more than any other Chinese city,
it tells the story of how China’s remarkable three decades of
modernisation and enrichment, its economic miracle, is apparently
drawing to a close,
and why there is a serious risk of a calamitous crash."
Up until June 2012, Wuhan’s debt reached 2.037 trillion yuan.
The government needs to pay back 100 million yuan every day
for two years.
Economic commentator who lives in U.S. Jason Ma:
“The CCP will never let local governments go bankrupt.
It resorts to printing money until 1000 yuan’s debt is paid
off with 500 yuan.
People can hardly feel this inflation. They see groceries prices
going up, not knowing the cause is the central government
printing money."
Robert Peston stated in his article:
“Over the past few years, China has built a new skyscraper
every five days,
more than 30 airports, metros in 25 cities, the three longest
bridges in the world,
more than 6,000 miles of high speed railway lines,
26,000 miles of motorway, and both commercial and
residential property developments on a mind-boggling scale."
He wrote that, when a big economy is investing at that pace
to generate wealth and jobs…
it is a racing certainty that much of it will never
generate an economic return…
That is why in China, there are vast residential developments
and even a whole city where the lights are never on
and why there are gleaming motorways barely tickled by traffic.
And China’s debt to GDP increased rapidly,from about
125% in 2008 to the current 200%.
Recently all kinds of debt default cases happened. According
to the caixin.com on February 20, 2014,
from 2014 to 2016 China’s local government debt will enter
the peak of the debt payback. Local debt default risk is increasing.
Deputy director of the Beijing Zetian Institute of Economics
Feng Xingyuan:
“Trust debt default will continue to deteriorate in many places,
this year.
Local governments may delay projects to repay debts, divert
money from new debt to pay old debts.
Their loans are likely to be non-performing loans, such as
local debt – treasury bonds issued by local governments.
Local government facing too much pressure would arbitrarily
collect fees, raise funds in addition to increasing tax collections."
Robert Peston said, that,for the economy as a whole, when
growth is generated over a longish period by debt-fuelled
investment or spending, there can be one of two outcomes…
But if lending continues at breakneck pace, then a crash becomes
inevitable.
The French bank Societe Generale economist Patrick Legrand
pointed out that China’s economic growth in 2014 could fall to 2%.
Chinese financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli:
“If China’s GDP growth is below 3%, this country would be in
great danger.
Chinese people’s basic necessities, and energy costs are high.
The three percent GDP growth is consumed there."
China’s caixun.com quoted the BBC’s report and commented,
such a massive infrastructural spending will inevitably lead to
a large area of demolition and reconstruction.
Some people and officials will therefore get rich.
The hidden social harm and political crises are
shaking the foundations of social stability.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ZhongYuan
