【新唐人2012年9月27日讯】国际媒体有关中国政局的观察与报导越来越犀利，《德国之声》一篇对北京的观察评论文章，作者直接点出江泽民利用媒体爆料，人事安插等手段敲打习近平，让习近平“服管、听话”，导致习近平“闹情绪”神隐。这使习近平和江泽民之间的矛盾公开化。分析人士认为，习近平一直保持中立立场。十八大前这个关键时候，习近平和江泽民“过招”，是目前中国政治里的“最大看点。”
《德国之声》这篇来自北京资深媒体人士的文章指出，由于习近平提出，由团派郭金龙接替刘淇担任北京市委书记，此举引起江泽民的不满，特意向建立渠道的《彭博社》，提供习家财富的大量资料，以达到对习近平进行敲打，警告习要“服管和听话”。
时事评论员刘国华表示，薄熙来和周永康曾经“密谋政变”的第一步，就是把薄熙来推到政治局常委﹔然后，利用海外和国内媒体制造对习不利的谣言，最后废掉习近平。刘国华认为，“预谋政变的总后台”应该是江泽民。
时事评论员刘国华：“在政治局这个派系分配当中，习近平是个中立立场。那么，在这个时候，他不可能再保持中立。所以他必须首先得为了自己的安全着想。这就是目前中国（共）政治里的最大看点。”
外界分析，薄熙来一案是导致习近平与江泽民彻底分裂的导火索。而习江的分裂，也加速了“江派”等“血债帮”的崩盘。
9月15号，大陆几十座城市出现声势浩大的反日示威，有示威者打出“钓鱼岛是中国的，薄熙来是人民的”标语，公开为薄熙来鸣冤叫屈。
但是，在王立军被判刑15年之后的短短几天，“江派”在媒体的放风开始大转向。
有媒体报导，中共召开的“十七届七中全会”将对薄熙来作出“双开”（就是：开除党籍和开除公职）的决定，并预计薄熙来的刑期将长达20年。
时事评论员夏小强认为，原本作为江泽民、曾庆红、周永康谋反政变计划的主角——薄熙来，他政治生命的完结，将给“江派”带来灭顶之灾，这也是“江派”一直不放弃“挺薄、保薄”的原因。但是在江系试图挽回败局失败后，薄熙来开始被江派“抛弃”。
时事评论员夏小强：“如今江派媒体痛打薄熙来，一种很大的可能，就是胡、温、习中央，对薄熙来的处理，以及十八大的大局已定，江派已经无法扭转。那么，江派无奈的抛弃薄熙来的目地，那就是为了保护周永康。”
夏小强说，周永康作为江派台面上最具权力的人物，如果再像薄熙来那样被公开拿下，江派将立刻崩溃。不同寻常的是，自从薄王事件之后，一直没有出国访问的周永康，竟然在9月21号到25号去新加坡、阿富汗和土库曼斯坦访问。夏小强分析，由于中共高层为保持局面的稳定，才出现周永康频频露面的表面和谐，而让周永康“出访”，更在于不让他在国内“搞事”。
另外，有媒体宣称，“江泽民”于9月22号晚，携夫人王冶平现身“北京国家大剧院”，与众多前高官如曾庆红、曾培炎等，以及在京的省部级高官，共同欣赏音乐剧。
夏小强：“可以看出，现在江派大势已去，他们在台面上的人物周永康，所能发挥的作用越来越小，他们只能靠搬出江泽民来造造声势，那么，很可能的情况是，江派人马在十八大的安排上完败，面临崩盘。”
那么，抛弃薄熙来，搬出江泽民，能保住周永康和江派势力吗？夏小强表示，包括周永康在内的所有“死硬江派人员”都清楚：“十八大”后周永康一旦退下，他们都是死路一条。那么，现在表现出的这种慌乱和拚命，也就没有什么奇怪的了。
采访编辑/常春 后制/黎安安
Xi Jinping Fight With Jiang Zemin,
Jiang Faction Has Lost
International media have made sharp observations in
reporting on the political situation in China.
Deutsche Welle has published an article:
The author directly points out that Jiang utilized the media
in releasing news to remind Xi Jin ping that he is in control.
Analysts believe that Jiang’s faction and Xi Jinping
are fighting showing that
the situation for the 18th National People’s Congress (NPC)
has been fixed, and that Jiang’s faction is falling apart.
Let’s listen to experts’ comments.
A senior media person of Deutsche Welle in Beijing
pointed out in the article that,
since Xi Jinping proposed Guo Jinlong in the League faction
to replace Liu Qi as next secretary of the municipal committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.
This action has caused distress for Jiang, and intentionally
released Xi’s financial materials to Bloomberg.
Jiang was warning Xi Jinping to obey him.
Liu Guohua, a current affairs commentator, said
the first step in the coup plot of Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang,
was to support Xi as a member of the Standing Committee;
the next step was to spread rumors of Xi on overseas and
domestic media, finally getting rid of Xi,
Liu Guohua believes the premeditated coup to have been
supported by Jiang Zemin.
Liu Guohua: “In the political turmoil of the factions,
Xi remains in a neutral position at this time.
But he can no longer remain neutral so first of all, he must
think of his own safety, which is essential in China’s politics."
Outsiders have analyzed that the Bo event was the
direct cause of Xi’s complete split with the Jiang faction
it certainly accelerated Jiang’s collapse and that of
the " Bloody Hands Faction “.
On September 15, dozens of cities in mainland China,
held massive anti-Japanese demonstrations.
Some protesters held banners,
“Diaoyu Islands belong to China,
Bo Xilai belongs to the people",
People were crying for Bo publicly.
Just a few days after Wang Lijun was sentenced to
15 years in prison,
Jiang’s faction changed direction in releasing news
to the media.
Some media have reported that the 7th meeting of
the 17th People’s Congress, the CCP will remove Bo’s party membership.
The media estimated that Bo could receive
a 20 year jail sentence.
Xia Xiaoqiang, current affairs commentator said that as Bo
was a key person in the coup conspiracy with Jiang Zemin,
Zeng Qinghong and Zhou Yongkang, his political life is over.
This is a disaster for Jiang’s faction. It is also the main
reason for the Jiang faction’s insistence on supporting Bo.
However, after the failure in this support,
Jiang’s faction has abandoned Bo.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Now Jiang’s media is against Bo,
perhaps because Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping have decided to deal with Bo.
In addition, the 18th National Congress’s personnel
structure is fixed, and Jiang’s faction cannot change it.
Jiang’s faction has abandoned Bo in the hope of securing
Zhou Yongkang’s position."
Xia Xiaoqiang says that Zhou Yongkang was the most
influential person in Jiang’s faction.
If his fate is the same as that of Bo who has been removed,
Then Jiang’s faction will immediately collapse.
Strangely, since Bo and Wang Lijun’s event,
Zhou Yongkang hasn’t made any visits abroad.
However, on Sept 21 to 25, he visited Singapore,
Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.
Xia said that is because CCP top level wants to maintain
the image of stability and sent Zhou out to show his face.
Sending him abroad is a way of preventing him
from making trouble at home."
Some media have reported that, on Sept. 22, Jiang Zemin
and his wife showed up in Beijing National Theatre.
Former high-ranking officials such as Zeng Qinghong and
Zeng Peiyan, with provincial level officials also attended the concert.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “Obviously, the Jiang faction’s era is over,
Zhou’s power is weakened.
Only pushing out Jiang will make them feel stronger now.
It may be the case that Jiang’s faction has lost completely
on the personnel arrangement for the 18th Congress."
Can abandoning Bo and pushing Jiang out secure
Zhou Yongkang and the rest of faction?
Xia Xiaoqiang said that Jiang’s faction including Zhou
knows that once Zhou is removed after the 18th Congress,
the faction will be at a dead end.
So the chaos happening now is no surprise.
