【新唐人2013年07月20日讯】17号，国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund，简称IMF)表示，如果中国不能兑现经济改革承诺，到2018年，中国经济增长率可能下降到4%左右。此前IMF对中国今年的GDP评估，已由4月的8%降到7.75%。专家指出，因为在中共虚假数据维持下的“假繁荣”已经浮出水面，国际组织逐渐清醒了。
周三，国际货币基金组织（IMF）撰文警告说，留给中共领导人的时间已经不多，中共要想获得成功，必须果断加快经济改革，否则，到2018年，中国经济增长率可能下降到4%左右。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“现在中国经济衰退的趋势让国际社会 国际金融机构现在开始清醒了起来，不像原来那样头脑发热，一厢情愿的相信中共的欺骗宣传，认为中国在改善，多少多少年要超过美国，但实际上，真正降到4%的话，在扣除中共官员浮夸造假的因素，中国经济肯定处在负的衰退的区间之内。”
台湾大学经济系教授张清溪:“中国的经济成长率到底是多少，我觉得没有多大意义，因为它是真的、假的也不知道。它的投资其实就是盖了一些像鬼城，一些不需要的东西。还有一些它的投资造成产能过剩，其实都造成问题，它的问题是越来越多，越来越明显，表面化，很多国际组织都可以看得出来了。”
IMF 提出的建议包括：实施金融系统改革，让市场力量而非行政力量发挥更大作用﹔让国有企业上缴更多红利﹔更多的通过累进所得税而非社会保障缴费来提高财政收入等等。
中国经济体制改革研究会特聘研究员毛寿龙：“从制度上来讲，它如果能够给个人提供更多的积极向上的空间，给其他人提供能够宁静生活，这样的一些制度性的的空间，那么对这个社会来讲，比较成熟。”
中国经济体制改革研究会特聘研究员毛寿龙向《新唐人》表示，中共目前还没有找到好的办法。
毛寿龙：“很多人都在说中国如果没有政治体制改革，经济体制改革很难成功，但也有人认为没有经济体制改革的话，经济体制改革有可能会进入北非的那种情况，或者不稳定的政治发展阶段。是不是有一种可循的道路，避免社会动荡的情况下，能够更好的实现政治方面的发展，这方面还没有很好的成熟的思路。”
目前，拉动中国经济的三驾马车——投资、消费、出口全面趴下。面对中国的经济困境，各路经济学家普遍悲观。
美国摩根大通企业及投资银行中国市场主席李晶在7月15号的记者会上指出，中国的经济矛盾堆积如山，经济将停滞不前。
北京当局，近期希望摆脱以挹注资金来拉动经济增长的模式。不过根据中国前三个月的数据显示，投资仍是中国经济扩张的最大驱动因素。如果停止地方政府及国企大量投资房地产及道路建设，中国的经济增长可能戛然而止。
“海通国际证券集团”公司首席经济学家胡一帆认为，如果没有政策推动，不但经济复苏很难，反而会进一步下滑，经济改革的成本和难度将不断加大。
不过，“汇丰银行”亚洲区董事总经理屈宏斌则表示，中共当局不会容忍经济迅速减速，总理李克强将对公共住宅等增加支出。
谢田：“这个能不能做成很值得怀疑的，以前也搞过经济适用房，最后这些房源也通过权力交换的关系被贪官拿走，建成的的公共住宅会不会同样被贪腐官员拿走呢？在中共的绝对权力没有法律保障的情况下，谁能保证不成为另一批官员致富的另一个发源地？即使它想进行这种公共住宅的支出，这些钱从哪里来，中国的国有银行都在闹钱荒。”
台湾大学经济系教授张清溪指出，中共当局在经济上的困境到了无解的境地。因为共产党依靠控制经济来维持统治，甚至包庇地方政府贪污腐化来维持稳定，如果进行经济改革，中共将面临解体，不改革同样会亡国。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/萧宇
IMF: China’s Growth May Fall To 4% Without Reform
On July 17, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned
that if China doesn’t fulfill promises of economic reform,
their economic growth will likely fall to 4% in 2018.
The IMF’s latest assessment for China’s GDP growth
has dropped from 8% in April to the current 7.75%.
Experts say that now the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)
fabricated data and it’s flourishing appearance have been seen
through, gradually allowing the IMF to see it clearly.
The IMF’s latest report warns CCP leaders that
“time is running out on the current model”.
To be successful, China must decisively accelerate economic
reforms, or else, its economic growth may drop to 4% in 2018.
Xie Tian, Professor at the School of Business, University
of South Carolina Aiken: “Now China’s economic recession
trends have made international financial institutions wake up.
They no longer believe, as they used to, the CCP’s propaganda
about how it’s improving or will exceed the US in a few years.
Actually, if the growth really drops to 4%,
apart from the data fabricated by corrupt officials,
China’s economic growth may fall into the negative range.”
Zhang Qingxi, professor in economics at National Taiwan
University: “I think China’s economic growth data is meaningless,
as we don’t know if it’s true or false.
They invest in property to build ghost cities, such useless things.
There’s also the issue of their exceeding production capacity.
As the CCP’s problems become more numerous and obvious,
with many now floating to the surface, many international
organizations and foreign companies are able to recognize them.”
IMF suggests that China revamp the financial system to give
a greater role to market forces rather than administrative orders;
increase dividends paid by state-owned enterprises;
and increase revenue via progressive income taxes,
rather than social security contributions; among other suggestions.
Mao Shoulong, research fellow at China Society of
Economic Reform: “In terms of it’s system,
if the CCP can provide more freedom for individuals,
relatively speaking, it will lead to a mature direction.”
Mao Shoulong told NTD that the CCP hasn’t yet found
a good solution.
Mao Shoulong: “Many people say that without political reform,
the economic reform will not be successful.
Other people say that without economic reform, the political
system will become like the situation in North Africa,
or a stage of political instability.
Whether there is a solution to avoid social unrest,
without affecting the economic development,
there is no mature solution yet.”
At present, investment, consumption and exports are all falling.
Many economists feel pessimistic regarding
China’s economic difficulties.
On July 15, Jing Ulrich, director and chairman of China
Equities and commodities at J.P. Morgan’s Chinese market
said at a press conference that China’s economic disputes
are piling up, and will stagnate.
Beijing authorities hope to avoid injecting funding and
pulling the economic growth.
The last 3 months’ official data shows that investment is
still a big factor driving the expansion China’s economy.
If local government and state-owned companies
stop investment in real estate and road construction,
China’s economic growth likely will stop instantly.
Hu Yifan, Chief Economist at Haitong Securities Co. says
that without a push from policies, not only is economic
recovery difficult, but it also will decline further.
The cost of economic reform will constantly increase.
Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s Chief Economist for China says that
Beijing won’t tolerate the economic slowdown immediately,
Premier Li Keqiang will increase expenses
on state-owned housing.
Xie Tian: “I doubt whether it can be done or not.
In the past, they built some affordable houses, but
they were later seized by corrupt officials.
After state-owned houses are built up,
will they again be occupied by corrupt officials?
The CCP doesn’t have a power restriction system,
no one can promise officials won’t get rich from it.
Although the CCP intends to invest on affordable houses,
where will the money come from?
Banks all over China are short of money.”
Zhang Qingxi says China’s economy has run into a dead end.
As the CCP relies on the control of economy
to maintain its power.
Even covering up the corruption of it’s local governments
to obtain its “stability”.
Implementing economic reform is the CCP’s collapse,
and without carrying out economic reform,
the entire nation of China will collapse.
