【新唐人2013年09月17日讯】目前，中国大陆外资的疯狂撤离，使得中共新政更加举足维艰，中共国务院总理李克强壮士断腕通过而早产的“上海自贸区”，能否弥补被“跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）”排挤在外，而带来的尴尬和损失，备受外界质疑。而“上海自贸区”的建立 谁会是其中最大的收益者？下面请看专家分析。
自中共国务院8月下旬批准设立上海自贸区以来，上海国际港务股份有限公司的股价累计飙升，已经超过130%。由于市场猜测其他沿海城市也有望成立类似的“自贸区”，天津港的股价也上涨了30%。
外界预计上海自贸区的试点将涉及金融管制的放松，“上海浦东发展银行”股价自上周四以来，累计上涨了30%。
中共国务院批准设立上海自贸区的官方公告，只有三段文字。公告强调，自贸区将包括进一步扩大服务业开放、和深化金融领域的开放创新。
但各种渠道放出风来，“上海自贸区”建设配套措施中，最引人注目的一项，是人民币在资本项目下将实现可自由兑换。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“如果在上海实行资本项目下的人民币可以（自由）兑换的话，我们可以想像，会存在汇率的双轨制，会使得一些中共官员有极大的寻租、贪污和腐败的机会，如果这个兑换溢到自贸区之外的话，可能会引发房地产泡沫的破灭。”
历史上，东南亚等国家在经济发展到一定程度后，都尝试过汇率市场化，但是开放到一半，就积聚起巨大的债务与泡沫而崩溃。日本汇率彻底放开后，也导致泡沫上升而崩溃，欧元同样禁不住次贷危机的轰炸，再也无法与美元旗鼓相当。
随着经济全球化的实现，跨太平洋伙伴关系和美欧自由贸易区（TTIP）将占据未来全球GDP的80%以上，而这两个“贸易区”并没有吸收中国参加。
有评论认为，“上海自贸区”的设立，有利于在泛太平洋伙伴关系协议谈判中为中国加分。
谢田：“但是TPP是国家级参与的项目，不可能是一个特区，或一个上海市来加入，中共用上海自由兑换区，在区内实行人民币自由兑换，可能是为了舆论上的好处，它可以说，是人民币整体自由兑换的一个试验，或一个先导。”
据中共商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副院长邢厚媛透露，中共在多边贸易体制遇到很多障碍和困难，“多哈谈判”没有取得新的突破，在“跨太平洋伙伴关系协议”谈判中，中国被边缘化。而其他发展中国家，在利用外资方面的政策竞争也在加剧，一些国家的成本要素优势逐渐显现出来，而中国的优势却在下降，资本向外转移已经出现苗头。
台湾中华经济研究院研究员吴惠林：“到最后还是回归经营环境，要有法治，又很稳定的、很安全的。一个是政治方面，另外一个，经济方面，相对要比人家好，但是中国（经济）现在正在下降当中，是不是一个上海能把它挽回，以我个人看，很困难。”
有人甚至认为，上海可能成为第二个深圳，带来中国经济的第二轮奇迹。台湾“中华经济研究院”研究员吴惠林指出，当年深圳以廉价的劳动力、低价的土地、牺牲环境和资源为代价，给中国的经济带来了短期的腾飞，实际上50年代，前苏联领导人赫鲁晓夫也是采取这种办法，但最终导致经济崩溃。
吴惠林：“后遗症都已经出现了，其实不应该再追求经济成长。李克强上台时，也有这种说法，可是这个东西对他们短期就非常的不利，因为泡沫经济已经非常严重，他们其实已经进退维谷。”
英国《金融时报》专栏作家叶檀认为，不出意外的话，中国境内外大规模的货币会涌向“自贸区”，形成庞大的“货币堰塞湖”，“自贸区”的货币水位必然带来人民币升值压力，也会带来更多的资产泡沫。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/钟元
Who Benefits From Shanghai Free Trade Area?
Currently, the side effects of reforms over the past 30
years are becoming more and more apparent in China.
High levels of withdrawal of foreign investment
from the mainland are slowing the economy.
There is also hesitation from the new investments coming in.
There are questions over the premature “Shanghai Free
Trade Zone”, and whether it can lessen embarrassment.
Will it stop China being marginalized
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?
Can the establishment of the “Shanghai
Free Trade Area” revive China’s economy?
Who is the biggest beneficiary of this trade zone?
Let’s take a look at our expert’s analysis.
In late August, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP)
State Council approved the establishment of 29 square kilometers of a “Shanghai Free Trade Area” (FTA).
Stocks of “Shanghai International Port
Co., Ltd." have soared to more than 130%.
According to market speculation, other coastal cities
are also expected to set up similar “free trade zones”.
Tianjin Port’s share price rose by 30%.
The “Shanghai Free Trade Area” pilot is
expected to result in financial deregulation.
“Shanghai Pudong Development Bank"
shares rose by 30% since last Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal reported that it’s very strange
that rumors drive trading results in Shanghai Stock.
The article also said that it is not only capital controls and
unpredictable volatility that reduce Shanghai’s attractiveness.
It is also weak rule of law, poor corporate
governance and other systemic problems.
Investment in Shanghai is overhasty. There are
only three paragraphs in the official announcement.
The announcement emphasized that the project
will include furthering the scope of business services.
It aims to open financial sector innovation in free trade area.
Of all the supporting measures in constructing
the Shanghai FTA, the most attractive one is RMB free exchange under capital account.
Xie Tian, Professor at Aiken Business
School, University of South Carolina:
“We can imagine that RMB free exchange under capital
account may bring a duel system in the exchange rates.
It may increase rent-seeking, as well
as corruption within the CCP officials.
It may also result in the real estate bubble bursting,
if RMB free exchange occurs outside the FTA.
Historically, Southeast Asia and other developing
countries have all tried market-oriented exchange rates.
This takes place at certain stages of economic development.
They amass huge debts and the debt bubble
collapsed during the process of opening.
In Japan, exchange rate liberalization
lead to the bubble rising and collapsing.
The euro can’t survive from subprime crisis
and can’t be matched with the U.S. Dollar
The “Trans-Pacific Partnership” and “US-EU free trade
zone” (TTIP) will occupy more than 80% of global GDP.
With economic globalization, neither
of the two trade zones attracts China.
Some commentators believe that the “Shanghai Free
Trade Zone” may earn extra points for China in the “Trans-Pacific Partnership” (TPP) negotiations.
Xie Tian: The “TPP is an international
project, not a US or Shanghai one.
RMB being freely tradable in the Shanghai
FTA will certainly benefit public opinion.
You can tell that RMB being freely
convertible is an experiment or pilot.”
Xing Houyuan, Vice President of the International Trade
and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, commented.
China is encountering many obstacles and
difficulties in the multi-lateral trading system.
There has been no new improvement in Doha negotiations.
China is being marginalized in the TPP negotiations.
There is more competition in the use of foreign
investment within other developing countries.
The advantage of the cost element is increasing
in some countries and decreasing in China.
There have been signs of capital
being transferred out of China.
Wu Huilin, Taiwan China Economic
Research Institute researcher:
“There must eventually be stable and
safe rules for a business environment.
The political and economic environment
should be better than other countries.
But China’s economy is declining.
In my opinion, it’s impossible to save China’s
economy if everything depends on Shanghai.”
Some people even believe Shanghai
could become a second Shenzhen.
They think it could bring China an economic miracle again.
Wu Huilin thinks that Shenzhen has taken
advantage of cheap labor and cheap land.
However, it has sacrificed the environment and
resources, to obtain a short-term improvement.
In the 1950s, Khrushchev, former leader of the Soviet Union,
also took this approach, but caused the economy to collapse.
Wu Huilin: “Side effects have occurred.
Actually, they shouldn’t pursue economic growth any
longer. Li Keqiang has said the same after taking office.
However, it is no good for them in the short-term.
The economic bubble is getting serious
now, and they are in a dilemma situation.
I still hoped it was just short-term pains,
and that it doesn’t run into a collapse.”
Ye Tan, a column writer for the Financial Times, said
that logically, massive monetary funds will flow into the FTA, and gather a massive amount of currency.
The monetary levels in Free Trade Zone will inevitably
bring pressure on the RMB, and cause more bubbles.
