【新唐人2013年10月04日讯】前中共中央政治局常委、中央政法委书记周永康，近日在母校校庆时露面，引起海内外舆论的关注。被外界盛传处于调查阶段的周永康来说，有分析指出，校庆露面不等于说他就安全了，反而说明他前景不妙。我们来看时政观察人士的分析。
中国石油大学网站10月1号的消息，在该校60周年校庆的时候，周永康回到母校。此次露面没有任何高官陪同， 也没有其他官媒报导。近日，周永康的心腹接连落马，家族丑闻不断被曝光，自身也深陷被调查的传闻中。
时事评论员史达：“这一次周永康露面，说明他的前景相当不妙。记得当年薄熙来在出事前，在18大上的露脸。 结果不久就出事了，直到最近被公开审判。”
北京独立学者高瑜：“薄熙来不就是去年的样子嘛，去年3月9号，你看他多狂，根本证明不了薄熙来以后的被判刑。”
美国《自由亚洲电台》引述中国政治学者分析，周永康露面并不表明周永康安全了，种种迹象表明，周永康是箭在弦上。
中国问题研究专家赵远明：“他这个露面我看是一种权宜性的，不能说他是着陆了，这能说是习近平已经完全掌控他了。”
周永康在校庆的发言中，曾经三次提及习近平，时事评论员史达认为，这很像是公开表示“服软”，不过为时已晚。
史达：“他们计划的让薄熙来在法庭上的翻供、一直不向习近平低头，还可能有一些我们不知道的一些动作，等到今天才服软，显然已经没用了。习近平重判了薄熙来，抓了周永康党羽，还把其儿子软禁，到这个地步，周永康就是真的想‘服软’也没用了。何况这可能还是一个缓兵之计。 ”
事实上，中共近年来被抓的贪官，在被调查期间也都出席过公开的活动。
在2011年大陆返乡运输最紧张的时刻，铁道部部长刘志军被免职。然而中国媒体在20分钟之前，还在报导有关刘志军视察铁路工作的新闻。
2012年12月6号上午，原国家能源局局长，国家发展和改革委员会副主任刘铁男，被《财经》杂志副主编罗昌平在博客上实名举报。就在当天，国家能源局还发通报说，刘铁男正随同国务院副总理、中纪委书记王岐山出访俄罗斯。
此外，有海外媒体引述消息透露，周永康在中共十八大交卸权力以后，实际上处于被软禁状态。周之后的几次露面，包括回到石油大学母校参加校庆，所有这些活动，都是经过专案组特批的。
消息来源指称，周永康还享有一定活动的自由，是因为他还处在中纪委调查阶段。如何处理周，中共总书记习近平还在权衡中，一直没有在“双规”周永康的报告上签字。此外，两周前在新加坡被中共国家安全人员监控的周永康的儿子周斌，在一周以前已经被押解回北京接受调查。
美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士王军涛分析，中共有三大理由拿下周永康，首先，周永康勾结薄熙来参与谋逆，威胁到中共新政权；第二，他是习近平高调反腐，打到政治局常委级的最适合人选。
王军涛：“第三，周永康开始进入政法系统，暴力维稳机制是他建立的，包括整法轮功，暴力拆迁，所有这些东西都是周永康一手弄的，现在共产党要转变社会治理模式，它需要一个人为过去的东西承担责任，周永康是理所当然做这个。”
香港《前哨》杂志10月号披露，据接近中南海核心消息人士说，8月27号，习近平主持的中央政治局委员会议通过一项并未公开，却绝对震撼的决议：十七届常委周永康涉嫌严重违纪，一致同意对其进行立案调查。
采访编辑/常春 后制/萧宇
Analysis:
Zhou Yongkang’s Sudden Public Appearance Implies His Bad Situation
Former Politburo Standing Committee, Zhou Yongkang,
secretary of the Central Politics and Law Commission, has
attracted the attention of the media domestically and globally
with his appearance at his alma mater’s anniversary.
Rumor has it that he is under investigation.
Analysts point out that his appearance at the anniversary
does not mean he is safe, but that his future doesn’t look bright.
Let’s look at the analysis of current political observers.
October 1st, China Petroleum University website news said
Zhou Yongkang went back to participate in his alma mater’s
60th anniversary celebration.
No senior officials accompanied him and no other
official media reported his appearance.
Recently, Zhou Yongkang’s henchman have fallen
ceaselessly horse, and his family scandals have been exposed.
It’s rumored that he himself is under investigation.
This time, Zhou Yongkang’s appearance means his future
doesn’t look bright.
Remember that Bo Xilai was in trouble and was recently
put on public trial after showing at the eighteenth national congress.
Beijing independent scholar Gao Yu: “Last year’s Bo Xilai
is an example.
On March 9th, 2013, how pretentious Bo Xilai was!
You can’t imagine he is sentenced after that."
US Radio Free Asia quoted Chinese a political science
analyst who said Zhou Yongkang’s appearance does not mean he is safe.
There are indications that Zhou Yongkang reached the point
of no return.
China issues expert Zhao Yuanming: “I think his appearance
is just an expedient and he is not safe.
It can be said that Xi Jiping totally controlled him and it was
premature to take any action."
Zhou Yongkang mentioned Xi Jinping three times
in his speech at the anniversary.
Commentator Shi Da believes that it’s more like
a public apology, even though it was too late.
Shi Da: “They had planned to let Bo Xilai retract in court
and not bow to Xi Jinping.
There might be some actions also we do not know about.
Obviously, Zhou Yongkang regrets today are useless.
At this point, even Zhou Yongkang’s true regret is useless,
and it may still be a stall tactic."
In fact, the CCP’s corrupt officials who were arrested
can also attend public events while under investigation.
In 2011, the busiest Chinese New Year travel season,
the railway minister Liu Zhijun was dismissed.
However, 20 minutes ago, Chinese media still reported
that Liu Zhijun is still inspecting railroads.
On the morning of December 6th, 2012, the former State
Energy Bureau, National Development and Reform
Commission director Liu Tienan was real name reported
by Finance magazine subeditor Luo Changping on the blog.
On the same day, the National Energy Board also informed
that Liu Tienan is accompanying Vice Premier and central
disciplinary committee secretary Wang Qishan to visit Russia.
In addition, some overseas media quoted sources and said
that Zhou Yongkang is under house arrest after relinquishing his power at the eighteenth national congress.
Zhou’s several appearances including back to University
of Petroleum to participate in its anniversary are all specially authorized by the special investment team.
The source alleged the reason that Zhou Yongkang still has
certain freedom of activity is because he is still under investigation by the Central Discipline Inspection Commission.
The CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping is still trying to deal
with Zhou in balance and has not signed the Shuanggui (detained and interrogated within the CCP) report.
In addition, Zhou Bin, Zhou Yongkang’s son, was sent
to Beijing to be investigated under escort and he was
monitored by the CPC national security in Singapore
two weeks ago.
Columbia University graduate of political science,
Dr. Wang Juntao, analyzed that there are three reasons to take Zhou Yongkang
down.
First of all, in collusion with Bo Xilai, Zhou Yongkang
threatened the new CCP regime.
Second, he is the best person in the Politburo-level
that Xi fights corruption to.
Wang Juntao: “Thirdly, since Zhou Yongkang was in charge
of the Politics and Law Committee, he established a brutal stability maintainance system.
It includes the persecution of Falun Gong
and forcible demolitions.
All these were set up by Zhou.
Now the CCP intends to change its model
of social management, and it needs someone to take the blame.
Zhou certainly is the one."
Hong Kong’s Front-Line magazine’s latest issue cited
sources close to Zhongnanhai that said on August 27,
Xi Jinping hosted a Politburo meeting and passed
an undisclosed but absolutely shocking resolution.
The member of the seventh session of the Standing
Committee, Zhou Yongkang, is suspected of seriously
violating discipline and agreed to do investigation.
