【新唐人2013年12月14日讯】朝鲜二号人物张成泽已经被处死了。官方发布的判决书声称他“试图政变夺权”。但专家分析认为，张成泽被国际上视为改革派和亲中派，有可能对最近朝鲜军方激进的核武器发展策略不满，而跟军方和领导人金正恩发生冲突。另有传言说，张成泽企图扶持前领导人金正日的长子金正男上位，最终惹来杀身之祸。
张成泽被解除职务及开除出党后没有几天，就传出已被定罪及判处死刑，立即执行。
官媒形容权倾一时、左右朝鲜大局的张成泽，是“狗也不如”的人渣，是“千古逆贼”。官方发布的判决书说，张成泽借助美国和朝鲜的“战略忍耐”政策、和“等待战略”，用尽一切手段和方法，恶毒的企图篡夺党和国家的最高权力。
判决书指称，在前领导人金正日选择接班人的过程中，张成泽“心怀二意”。
复旦大学韩国朝鲜研究中心副教授蔡建相信，“政变夺权”是金正恩迅速处死张成泽的主要原因。
复旦大学韩国朝鲜研究中心副教授蔡建：“从他公布的罪名来说，是张成泽直接想发动政变，颠覆这个政权，要夺权。这样的行为在朝鲜来讲是无法容忍的，所以他迅速的高调的逮捕，并且审理，并且立即处决这个事情，也是为了强化他的政权，或震慑潜在的反对派的势力。”
同时，蔡建认为，张成泽也很有可能意图政变、推翻金正恩。
蔡建：“因为张成泽在国际社会经常被看成是改革派或者亲中派，可能对金正恩或军方推行的一些强硬路线，可能一直持比较反对的态度。如果实行那些路线的话，对朝鲜未来发展是不利的。其实如果从朝鲜今年做的一系列冒进活动来看，有可能招致他的不满，有可能谋求试图推翻金正恩的统治，用其他的温和派或其他人取而代之，这种事十分有可能的。”
而韩国《先驱经济报》引述朝鲜消息人士的话报导说，这次张成泽遭到肃清，和金正日长子金正男有关。金正恩政府上台后，张成泽和金正恩之间，在经济改革和对外政策上存在分歧。张成泽试图让金正男夺权，最近还派亲信和金正男接触，此事被金正恩发现后，才被整肃。
蔡建：“但是(金成泽)篡位之后或发动政变之后，由谁来担任国家领导人？实际上从金正日去世前后，他在安排他的三代世袭的过程中间，展现了金正男跟金正恩之间的可能一种权力斗争。最后指定了金正恩。那么金正男作为一个潜在的可能的选择，可能也是有一些国家或势力希望支持金正男来替代金正恩。”
韩国媒体报导，张成泽与金正男极亲近。金正日和大他六岁，已经嫁人，并育有一子一女的成慧琳交往，产下金正男，引起了父亲金日成的不满。但是，张成泽一直积极拥护金正男，甚至提供金钱补助他在海外定居，保持着非常密切的关系。
另外，《朝鲜日报》分析，朝鲜劳动党第一书记金正恩肃清张成泽，是为了收回他掌握的“权力”，以及“资金来源”。因为张成泽和他的亲信，一直在管理金正日和金正恩父子的大部分海外秘密资金。
据了解，金正恩的海外秘密资金规模共达40亿美元左右。而正式被暴露的只有2005年存在澳门汇业银行的2500万美元。2006年，联合国安理会采取对朝鲜制裁措施以后，韩国和美国开始追查朝鲜金氏家族的秘密资金。结果，中国、俄罗斯、新加坡、瑞士、奥地利、卢森堡、列支敦士登等，全球数十个国家银行里的200多个匿名账户存有嫌疑。
韩国政府消息人士表示：“负责54局的张秀吉被处决，有可能和贪污金正恩的秘密资金有关。”就是说，张成泽及其亲信有可能并没有把赚来的外汇等资金，存入金正恩的秘密资金账户，或贪污了部分原有秘密资金，并且被发现。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/黎安安
Jang Song Thaek Executed For Coup Over Kim Jong-un
North Korea’s second most important person,
Jang Song Thaek has been executed.
Official verdict says he “attempted a coup".
Experts analyze that Jang was considered a reformist and
pro-China in the international world.
He recently expressed opposite opinions towards North
Korean nuclear weapon policy and had conflicts with the
military and leader Kim Jong-un.
There’s a rumor Jang Song Thaek helped Kim Jong-nam,
eldest son of former leader Kim Jong Il, to become leader,
which caused the fatal disaster.
A few days after Jang Song Thaek was sacked from work and
the party, his verdict and immediate execution was leaked.
North Korean official media says Jang was too powerful
and influential to North Korean politics, and called him
“less worthy than a dog" and “an usurper of the history".
The official verdict says Jang planned to usurp the highest
power of the party and country with the assistance and
strategies from the United States and South Korea.
The verdict says Jang had different opinion when former
leader Kim Jong Il was selecting the next leader.
Cai Jian, associate professor of North Korea research
center at Fudan University, believes a coup is the major
reason for Kim Jong-un to execute Jang so soon.
Cai Jian: “From the accusation, Jang wanted to do a coup
and seize the power, which is unacceptable in North Korea.
Thus, he was quickly arrested in high profile. The trial
opened, and he was soon executed.
(Kim Jong-un) is also reinforcing his regime,
or detering the potential opposition forces."
Meanwhile, Cai Jian believes that Jang very likely
planned a coup to turn over Kim Jong-un.
Cai Jian: “As Jang was considered a reformist or pro-China
in the international world, he was likely to oppose the hard
lines promoted by Kim Jong-un and North Korean military.
If North Korea follows those hardlines, it’s not good for their
development.
Actually, according to the aggressive activities North Korea
has done this year, Jang was possibly unsatisfied, and may
have attempted to turn over Kim Jong-un’s rule and to take
place with other people. It’s very likely."
The Korea Herald quotes a North Korean source that the
execution of Jang is related to the eldest son of Kim Jong II.
After Kim Jong-un stepped on stage, Jang and Kim Jong-un
had disagreements on economic and foreign policy reforms.
Jang tried to let Kim Jong-nam seize power,and recently
sent a trusted aide to get in touch with Kim Jong-nam.
He was arrested because Kim Jong-un found out about it.
Cai Jian: “Who’s going to be the leader if starting a coup?
In fact, after Kim Jong II passed away, it showed the power
struggle between Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-un.
Kim Jong-un was eventually assigned leadership.
Then, Kim Jong-nam, as a potential candidate, could possibly
then be supported by some countries or forces to take the
place of Kim Jong-un."
Korea media says Jang and Kim Jong-nam were very close.
Kim Jong-nam is son of Kim Jong II and Song Hye-rim, six
years older than Kim Jong II and had a son and a daughter
before with someone else.
Kim Jong II’s father Kim Il Sung was very unhappy with
their relationship.
But Jang had always actively supported Kim Jong-nam,
and even financially supported him for his living overseas,
keeping a very close relationship.
Korea media Chosun Ilbo analyzed Kim Jong-un executed
Jang to get his “power" and “financial resource" back.
Jang and his trusted aide managed most of the secret
overseas money belonging to Kim Jong II and Kim Jong-un.
Accordingly, Kim Jong-un’s overseas secret money has
reached around $4 billion.
According to formal reports, he had only $25 million
saved in Macau Bank in 2005.
In 2006, UN Security Council had sanctions against North
Korea, and Korea and the US started to investigate
the secret money of Kim’s family.
The result shows that more than 200 anonymous bank
account in dozens of countries in the world are suspected
to be owned by Kim’s family.
The countries include China, Russia, Singapore,
Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Liechtenstein.
Korea government source says: “Jang Su-gil in charge of the
54 bureau was executed.
He may be involved in laundering the secret money of
Kim Jong-un."
It means Jang and his trusted aide may not put the earned
money into Kim Jong-un’s secret bank accounts.
Or they were found to have corrupted part of the money
in the secret accounts.
Interview & Edit/QinXue Post-Production/LiAnan
