【新唐人2014年02月05日讯】还有大约一个月，中共就要召开“两会”了。近一、两年来，中共政局动荡，民间反抗越来越公开化。在这样的背景下，北京召开“两会”之前，还会上演什么“戏码”？让我们一起听听大陆各界人士的看法。
大陆媒体日前报导，中共“两会”将在下个月的3月3号和5号，在北京召开。
“两会”是“全国人民代表大会”和“中国人民政治协商会议”的简称，每年3月固定召开。按照惯例是由“两会代表”提案，交中共审定。
然而，“两会”被称为中共手中的“橡皮图章”。民间因“两会”近年来的提案过于荒唐、“雷人”，而把“两会”改称为“二会”。
今年的中共“两会”，将在政治、经济和环境等不安的背景下召开。
经济方面，除了经济全面下滑之外，人民币外升内贬，将触发超高通胀和滞胀﹔房地产泡沫破裂风险不断加剧﹔堆积如山的地方债务，和理财产品、影子银行等高风险投机，将触发信贷泡沫﹔而产能过剩行业也将面临大面积崩溃﹔银行坏账上升则将引发金融危机等。
另外，大陆投资环境也因大陆富人加快移民，和转移资产，以及国有企业转移资金作境外投资，而将逐渐萧条。
政治方面，从去年到今年开年，中共在内部使用所谓反腐，强力整肃了地方、政法委和石油等不同系统的上百位官员。政治局委员级别的前国资委主任蒋洁敏、和副部级的“610办公室”主任李东生等人，纷纷落马。中共调查前中央政治局常委周永康的“二号专案组”，和调查前国家副主席曾庆红的“一号专案组”也被曝光。
原山东大学教授孙文广：“这次人大之前，有几个事情它是绕不过去的，那么其中一个就是周永康的问题了。先搞定的可能性大一些，现在全国议论已经很普遍了，不是说少数人讲周永康的事。几乎是家家户户的都在议论这个事，所以它不好回避。”
大陆博客作家刘逸明：“我感觉周永康这个案子在两会之前，应该会有一个给社会的初级交代。因为周永康的案子一直是中国国内和国际舆论关注的焦点。从传媒来看，周永康的案子快到了公布的时候。官方媒体也在暗示，所以我觉得拿周永康来‘祭旗’是一件很有意义的事情。”
与此同时，今年已有一批“新公民运动”的参与者，被北京当局“快审快判”。其中“公盟”组织创始人，中国法学博士许志永被判4年，参与街头拉横幅、要求官员财产公示的公民袁东，被判刑1年半﹔“新余三君子”刘萍等人，也将面临所谓审判等。
刘逸明：“我觉得新公民运动当中被抓捕的一些维权人士的案子，应该也会在今年两会之前有一个结果。把这些人解决，好让两会‘顺利’进行，在中共当局看来反腐败是官方的专利，不容民间人士染指。”
大陆博客作家刘逸明分析，中共历来在开两会之前，经常通过镇压，来震摄民众。
而大陆资深民主人士车宏年表示，当前的中国民众，已不再对中共“两会”抱持任何期望，他们希望依靠公民自己的觉醒，坚持反抗中共的极权体制。
大陆资深民主人士车宏年：“对于我们这些人，他们还是不松手的，它还是维护这个制度。包括这个安全委员会，就是巩固它的政权，不是针对国家安全的，而是针对我们的，这已经很明显的，就是加强中央极权体制，它的政权已经很虚弱了。”
今年新年伊始，中国已出现严重雾霾和禽流感蔓延，而去年中共“两会”期间，也发生沙尘暴、和黄浦江大量死猪等异像。美国《大纪元》媒体预测，中国的政治风暴，也将因为中共前党魁江泽民集团势力不断遭到打击而逼近。
采访编辑/唐音 后制/孙宁
Uproar Predicted Before “TWO SESSIONS"
The CCP will hold the “two sessions" next month.
In the last two years, the CCP’s political situation has been
unnstable with more and more open civil revolt.
Given such a chaotic background,what “drama" is in store
before “two sessions"?
Let us see mainland people’s opinion.
Mainland media recently reported that the CCP’s “two sessions"
will be held on March 3 and 5 in Beijing.
“Two sessions" is the abbreviation of the “National People’s
Congress" and “The Chinese People’s Political Consultative
Conference" held in March every year.
By convention, the proposal from the “two sessions" representatives
will be approved by the CCP.
However, the “two sessions" is known as the CCP’s
“rubber stamp".
Recently, the “two sessions" has changed to “two meeting (silly
meeting)" by people because the proposals are so absurd.
This year, the “two sessions" will be held against the backdrop of
the unstable political and economic landscape.
In economy, in addition to the overall economic downturn,
the renminbi’s external revaluation and internal depreciation
will trigger ultra-high inflation and stagflation
which fosters the perturbing risk of the real estate bubble
exploding;
A mountain of local debt, the high-risk speculation of financial
products and the shadow banking will trigger a credit bubble;
The overcapacity of industry will also face wide scale collapse;
The rising, toxic bank debts will lead to financial crisis.
In addition, the mainland investment environment will gradually
depress due to the rich emmigrating asset transfer and the
state enterprises’ overseas investment.
In politics, the CCP’s internal so-called, anti-corruption drive,
cleaned out hundreds of officials from local Politics and the Law
Committee and the oil system from last year.
Former member of the Politburo level, State Assets
Administration Committee director Jiang Jiemin, and Deputy
Ministerial level “610 Office" director Li Dongsheng have fallen.
The “II task force" investigation exposed former Politburo
Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang and the “I task force"
investigation exposed former Vice President Zeng Qinghong.
Former Shandong University professor Sun Wenguang: “there
are a few unavoidable things before this Congress: one is Zhou
Yongkang.
It’s possible to resolve this problem first because everybody
is talking about it in China and it’s not complicated. “
Continental blog writer Liu Yiming: “I feel Zhou Yongkang’s
case will be given an explanation before the two sessions because
it has been the national and international focus.
From the official media’s hint, it is time to release Zhou
Yongkang’s case because it is very interesting to have him
as ‘flag ceremony’."
At the same time, a number of “New Citizen
Movement" participants were quickly judged by the authorities.
The organization founder, Doctor of Laws Xu Zhiyong was
sentenced to four years on charge of holding a banner on the street;
Yuan Dong was sentenced to one and half year on charge;
campaigning for government officials to reveal their wealth.
“New Yu three gentlemen" Liu Ping will also face a so-called trial.
Liu Yiming: “I believe the case of some arrested activists from
‘New Citizen Movement’ will be wrapped up before the two
sessions.
The two sessions can be smoothly carried out after resolving
these issues.
Anti-corruption is the monopoly of the Chinese authorities, they
will and not allow private individuals to touch it."
Continental blog writer Liu Yiming observed that the CCP has
always shocked the people by repression before the two sessions.
The senior Democrat Che Hongnian said “the current Chinese
people have no faith in the ‘two sessions’ they rely on their own
citizens’ awakening against the CCP’s totalitarian regime."
The senior Democrat Che Hongnian: “They still try to maintain
the system, and not let us go.
The Security Committee is to consolidate its power, not for
national security, but against us.
It is obvious that they are trying to strengthen the central totalitarian
regime because the regime has been very weak. “
At the beginning of this year, China has severe haze and avian
flu.
There were sandstorms and a large number of dead pigs in
Huangpu River during the last “two sessions".
American “Epoch" Media predicted that China’s political storm
is about to blast former Communist Party
Leader, Jiang Zemin’s Group.
Interview & Edit/TangYin Post-Production/SunNing
