【新唐人2014年03月25日讯】中共央行自从2月末开始介入压低人民币兑美元的价值，今年以来已经压低2.8%，几乎抹平了去年的涨幅，并且让人民币进入十年来罕见的疲软时期。美国国会可能再次掀起指控中共操控货币的声浪。但大陆经济学者认为，延续了两个多月的人民币下跌，最初可能是央行故意压低，但是到后来则是因为市场看衰中国经济而造成贬值。
美国《华尔街日报》报导说，最近人民币对美元比率的下滑，恶化了中美之间的贸易紧张，并提升了潜在货币战争的担忧。美国和其他亚洲国家的官员和政客相信，中共在故意压低人民币到市场价值以下，以让出口商在海外市场竞争当中占据优势。
据《华尔街日报》引述华府“彼得森国际经济研究所”高级研究员Fred Bergsten的话说，他感到惊讶，“中共愿意让人民币下跌这么多、这么快、这么久。” “如果这个动作进一步加大，它显然将重燃国会（对于中共的）货币操纵的指控。”
美国民主党参议员和参议院财政委员会谢若德•布朗（Sherrod Brown），周四呼吁国会通过一项法律制裁中共。布朗说，“随着中共政府继续压低人民币价值，通过有关处理操纵货币的两党法案迫切性增加。”
报导说，根据熟悉中共央行想法的知情人透露，央行认为，需要通过贬值，来驱逐那些下注人民币会持续升值的投机者。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利认为，贬值初期央行是为了阻击投机者，但是如果人民币持续的贬，那可能就不是中央银行压低造成的结果了。他认为，这是中国的经济结构、以及货币投放与国际的金融环境，有很大的悖论造成的。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利：“第一，中国现在人民币投放是历史的最高峰，已经超过了大概110万亿M2（货币供应量），这是历史的最高峰。第二个就是，现在中国货币投放量是美元投放量的超过两倍，是欧元的倍率更高。我觉得中国目前的货币政策在全球G20国家里面是最麻烦的。因此我说中国的货币现在出手和紧缩都麻烦，处在两难的困境。”
《华尔街日报》报导说，市场参与者由于担忧最近经济增长放缓的迹象，因而抛售人民币。
巩胜利也认为，人民币持续下跌跟外界看衰中国经济有关。
巩胜利：“我想可能与中国资本运行的债务有关。比如像中国地方政府的债务，它面临着很麻烦的事情。因为中国很多的债务，它不能阳光化。比如中国的党的系统的组织部和宣传部，还有统战部的这些钱花出去的人民币都没有公开，它造成的黑洞到底有多大？所以这是一个很大的麻烦的问题。债务多了，人们都没有信心了，它怎么不贬值啊？”
今年以来，人民币已经压低2.8%。而去年一年，人民币对美元升值才升了百分之一点八。巩胜利认为，美国的量化宽松QE继续缩减，到十月份，美国第三次量化宽松政策（QE3）将全部收回。美元将会吃紧。
巩胜利：“接下来看有两个可能。一个是通货膨胀，这个很有可能的一种现象。还一个就是，如果持续贬值的话，那中国的财富，特别是国家的财富还有老百姓的财富，都可能会缩水。这个缩水对中国的产业特别是能源产业，比如，水、电、煤气、石油这些产业会构成非常大的压力，特别是中国的房地产。资金链的短缺，我觉得是非常麻烦的一件事情。”
《华尔街日报》报导说，在今年头两个月，中国经济大幅减弱，加深了目前的7.5%(GDP)增长速度可能进一步减速的担忧。中共最高领导人现在面临：是否搁置经济改革措施这个艰难的决定，比如遏制信贷飙升，将可能在短期内抑制GDP增长。
华府“彼得森研究所”的Bergsten表示，中共在利用它的货币来处理经济问题，这将让紧张加剧， “他们显然在挑起新的严重麻烦”。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/陈建铭
The Stumbling Yuan Could Ignite Currency War
Wall Street Journal reported, that China’s central bank
has intervened since late February to drive down the value
of the yuan against the U.S. dollar by 2.8% so far in 2014,
almost erasing all of its gains last year and ushering in a rare
period of weakness for a currency which has steadily
appreciated over the past decade, and it will clearly reignite
the currency manipulation charges in the Congress.
However, Chinese economists believe that the central bank’s
manipulation of the decline of RMB over the past two months
could eventually lead to depreciation of yuan due to the poor
market caused by the manipulation.
WSJ reported, The recent sharp decline in the Chinese
currency is threatening to exacerbate China’s trade tensions
with the U.S. and raising concerns over a potential
currency war in Asia.
Still, officials and politicians in the U.S. and other Asian
nations believe China is intentionally keeping the yuan below
its true market value to give exporters an edge over
competitors in overseas markets.
C. Fred Bergsten, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute
for International Economics, told WSJ, “I’m surprised that
the Chinese would let the renminbi drop so far so fast
so long", and “If the movement continues much further,
it will clearly reignite the currency manipulation charges
in the Congress and elsewhere here."
On Thursday, Sherrod Brown, a U.S. Democratic senator
and a member of the Senate Finance Committee called
on Congress to pass a law to sanction China.
He said, As the Chinese government continues
to push down the value of the yuan, the urgency for passing
our bipartisan bill addressing currency manipulation rises,
reported WSJ.
WSJ said, The People’s Bank of China argues
the depreciation is needed to drive out speculators who were
betting the yuan would continue to rise, according to people
with direct knowledge of the central bank’s thinking.
Chinese financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli believes
that the initial devaluation by the central bank was to stop
the speculators.
However, if the yuan continues to devaluate, it may not be
the result of the central bank’s manipulation.
He argues that it could be caused by China’s money supply
and economic structure against the norm of the international
financial environment.
Gong Shengli, Chinese financial think tank researcher:
“First, renminbi is at its peak in history,
it has exceeded 110 trillion of M2, (money supply.)
Second, the CCP has invested twice the amount
the invested dollar, and multiple folds of the euro.
I think China’s current monetary policy is the most
troublesome of the G20 countries.
The RMB is in a troublesome dilemma whether
it is loosened or tightened."
WSJ reported, Market participants, worried over recent signs
of slowing economic growth, have taken this as a cue
to sell yuan.
Gong Shengli also argues that the RMB has continued
to fall because of the bad economic outlook of China.
Gong Shengli: “I believe it has to do
with China’s capital debt.
For example, the local government debt is in trouble due
to non-transparency.
Massive amounts of expenditures in the CCP organizations
are hidden, such as those at the Propaganda Department
and the United Front Department.
How big is the black hole?
The debts are becoming so big that people have lost
confidence.
Of course the RMB will devalue."
This year, the RMB was driven down by 2.8 percent.
Last year, the RMB only rose by 1.8 percent
against the U.S. dollar.
Gong Shengli believes that dollar will tighten up along
with the shrinking of the QE, especially after
the fully recovered QE3 in October.
Gong Shengli: “There are two possibilities.
One is inflation, which is very likely.
The other is depreciation which will lead
to shrinking of the national wealth
and the people’s wealth.
It will especially affect the energy industry
such as water, electricity, gas and oil.
The pressure will be very big, in particular, in real estate
due to the shortage of capital chains,
which can be very troublesome."
WSJ reported that China’s economy weakened sharply
during the first two months of this year, deepening concerns
that current growth of around 7.5% may decelerate further.
China’s top leaders now face tough decisions about whether
to set aside economic overhaul measures—such as reining
in runaway credit—that could pinch growth in the short term.
WSJ added, Signs China is using its currency to deal with
economic problems would intensify tensions,
said Mr. Bergsten of the Peterson Institute. “They are clearly
flirting with serious new troubles", he said.
Interview & Edit/Qin Xue Post-Production/Chen Jianming
