【禁闻】网路审查恐不利人人网赴美上市

【新唐人2011年2月24日讯】中国大陆版的脸书(Facebook) ——《人人网》,计划今年赴美上市。但分析人士担忧,中共政府对网络的严格审查,会对互联网公司的发展造成不良影响。特别是最近在中东爆发的“茉莉花”革命中,互联网起了很大作用,中共当局因此对互联网的管理更加严厉。

据了解,《人人网》预计在今年(2011 年)6月份之前,向美国证券交易委员会提交上市申请,通过首次公开募股(IPO)筹资5亿美元。摩根士丹利、德意志银行和瑞士信贷将担任联席证券承销商。

《人人网》的前身是《校内网》,在2005年模仿美国社交网站 Facebook创立。 2006年,《校内网》被“千橡互动”(Oak Pacific Interactive)收购,2009年改名为《人人网》。据“易观国际”统计,目前《人人网》拥有1亿6千万注册用户,是中国最大的社交网站。

近年来,新型的社交网络迅速发展,Facebook作为全球最大的社交网站,虽然还没有上市计划,但它的市值据估计已经达到800亿美元。

有鉴于此,“ChinaVenture投中集团”研究总监李玮栋对《人人网》的上市前景比较乐观,他认为,“社交网络”这种新型的互联网概念本身就是一个很大的卖点,投资需求旺盛。

但网民对此似乎看法不同,TechWeb网站做了一个调查,结果显示,62%的网民表示不看好《人人网》上市,35%的网民表示看好,另有3%的用户认为不好判断。

网友质疑,《人人网》找到合适的盈利模式了吗?据《人人网》自称,自2008年出售广告以来,广告收入每年增长一倍以上。但网友认为,网络竞争激烈,单纯靠页面广告,将会损害用户体验,使用户转往其他广告少的网站。

海纳亚洲创投(Susquehanna International Group)预计,到2014年中国网络广告市场规模将达到近130亿美元。但考虑到中共政府对互联网的严格控制,分析人士对《人人网》的未来表示担忧。

中国问题观察家章家敦(Golden Chang)对《美国之音》表示,谷歌遇到的问题,其他公司也会遇到。中共政府的运行方式,确实是企业可能遭遇的风险,某一天,政府因为某个原因改变了态度,《人人网》可能就会发现自己面临破产的边缘。

《美国之音》认为,章家敦的担忧不无道理。在中东“茉莉花”民主革命如火如荼进行的时候,中国可能会考虑关闭类似推特的网络服务,来严格控制信息传播。

近年来,很多中国公司寻求到海外融资或发展,但并不顺利。前不久,美国外国投资委员会要求中国“华为”公司撤销对美国 3Leaf公司的收购申请,理由是“国家安全利益”。

五角大楼的一份报告证明,“华为”公司创始人任正非与军队、国安部甚至中共高层有密切联系,而公司另一位重头人物-现任董事长孙亚芳则出自于国家安全部。

这种担忧也使“华为”在英国竞购电讯制造商马可尼(Marconi)失败,在印度进入市场也受阻。

新唐人记者李谦、黎安安综合报导。

Internet Censorship Undermines the Plan of “Chinese Facebook” to Enter US Stock Market

Mainland China’s Facebook, Renren.com is planning
to enter the US stock market this year.
Analysts worry about the effects of CCP’s censorship.
Internet plays a key role in the current
“Jasmine Revolution” in the Middle East.
Because this, the CCP tightens internet control.

China’s Facebook Renren.com plans to apply in June
to enter the US stock market with an initial IPO of
US$500 million to be managed by Morgan Stanley,
Bank of Germany, and Credit Suisse Group.

Renren.com network, formerly Xiaoyuan network,
was created by mimicing Facebook.
In 2006, Xiaoyuan network was purchased
by Oak Pacific Interactive and renamed Renren.com.
According to Analysys International,
Renren.com has 160 million users and
is the largest social network in China.

With the rapid growth in social networking,
Facebook is estimated to worth US$80 billion,
although it has no plans to enter the stock market.

ChinaVenture research director Li Weidong
is optimistic about Renren.com, saying
social networking is a new concept on the internet
that can attract a huge investment.

But net users feel differently. TechWeb shows
65% users are negative about Renren.com’s future,
only 35% is positive, and 3% neutral.

Net users worry if Renren.com can make a profit.
Renren.com claims its ad sale has doubled annually.
But users worry that ad-filled pages will
undermine user experience, forcing them to
move to other sites with less ads.

Susquehanna International Group predicts
net ads will reach US$13 billion in China by 2014.
Analysts worry the CCP’s censorship will
undermine Renren.com network.

China expert Gordon Chang said to VOA,
difficulties Google met will confront other companies.
The way CCP operates poses a risk on the industry.
If CCP interferes, Renren.com will find itself bankrupt.

VOA considers Chang’s concern valid.
As “Jasmine Revolution” unfolds in the Middle East,
the CCP may close networking sites like Twitter
to control information flow.

Some Chinese companies tried to enter foreign stock
markets but face difficulties overseas.
Recently, US authorities ask Huawei company
to withdraw its plan to purchase 3Leaf
for reasons of “national security.”

A Pentagon report said Huawei’s head Ren Zhengfei
has connections with the Chinese military and CCP,
and Huawei’s CEO Sun Yafang is from State Security.

Similar worry failed Huawei in its competition with
the British Marconi to enter the Indian market.

NTD Reporter Li Qian

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