【新唐人2011年12月21日讯】中共国家统计局调查显示，继10月全国城市房价拐点出现以后，11月份房价下跌的城市数量和下调幅度都在增加，拐点进一步加深。而社科院“社会蓝皮书”指出，房地产业如果崩盘会对经济造成致命的影响。
调查显示，11月份中国70个大中城市平均房价连续第二个月环比下降，11月，70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格，环比下降城市增加到49个，较上个月增加了15个，价格持平的城市有16个。
中国社科院19号公布的2012“社会蓝皮书”指出，房地产发展和地方经济发展紧密相连，整个房地产业如果出现崩盘情况，会对经济造成致命的影响，如何处理新形势的问题成为推动经济健康发展的关键阶段。
美国“南卡罗来纳大学”艾肯商学院教授谢田：“中国的房价上涨，一个是国家的垄断，第二个是既得利益集团巧取豪夺，搜刮中国老百姓的储蓄、血汗钱。现在房市下跌是中国资金链断裂，就是说老百姓手中资金缺乏。权贵集团炒房价，但如果老百姓手中没钱，终究还是卖不出去的。”
谢田表示，房价泡沫太大了，已经到了让中国百姓负担不起的地步。房价下跌可能让老百姓更容易负担一点，但是对已经买了房子的那些民众，特别是刚刚买房不久的人，房价下跌可能使得他的房子成为负资产，等于他的头款泡汤了。所以会引起他们的不满，引发社会动荡。
谢田：“房价突然下跌很可能会带来经济的动荡，这是有根据的。因为中国卖出去的那些房子、建好的房子、开发商手中的房子、市场上的那些房子，都是贷款下，国有银行大量投入基建金贷款的。这些房价一旦下跌，这些贷款变成呆账的话，坏账的话，会拖垮银行体系。”
另外，经济学者綦彦臣认为，楼盘经营不下去的开发公司跑掉了，政府不得不接手，这也加剧了地方财政的负担﹔还有建筑行业的下游，如生产钢筋、砂石料等行业都会受影响。他还表示，房价下跌对社会有好处，让贫困人看到买房希望，所以应该继续下去。
綦彦臣：“楼市下跌很可能最受直接影响的是地方政府的土地财政，土地财政广义还包括楼建设后、住宅建设以后一些交易方面的税收，地方政府的收入受影响。”
事实上，从70个城市的新建商品住宅价格指数来看，从今年4月以来，平均环比降幅就一路下跌，到11月份达到0.19%，领涨房价的一线城市也开始全面下调。
谢田指出，中共政府非常担忧房价下跌，一是担心既得利益集团利益受损﹔二是担心导致银行和金融体系的破裂。但是，中共政府又不愿意看到房价上升的过快，这会使得民怨、民愤更大。所以，中共在房价问题上进退两难。
但谢田认为，中共对房价下跌无能为力，如果投入更多的钱，就会通货膨胀，所以房地产进一步下跌不可避免。
谢田：“中国的经济现在显然继续恶化，房地产泡沫应该迅速的破灭，所以，我估计未来的一个月，房地产价格下跌还会继续下去。”
社科院的“社会蓝皮书”同时指出，物价和房价问题，持续受到社会民众的高度关注，被提及的比率高居第一和第二位。
新唐人记者周玉林、宋风、肖颜采访报导。
China’ Property Decline: A Fatal Hit to Economy?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official data shows,
this November housing prices have dropped in more cities.
According to the ‘2012 Social Bluebook’ published by CASS
(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), the real estate’s collapse will fatally impact China’s economy.
The survey shows, in November, the average housing prices
dropped second month in a row in China’s 70 major cities.
The number of cities with month-to-month
decreasing new housing prices rose to 49, out of 70.
This is 15 more compared to last month’s figure.
In 16 cities housing prices remained flat.
‘2012 Social Bluebook’ released by CASS on December 19,
states, China’s property development is closely linked to the local economy.
The real estate sector’s collapse
would have a fatal effect on the economy.
Thus, the issue of how to handle the new situation
becomes critical for the economy’s healthy development.
Professor in economics at University of South Carolina,
Frank Tian Xie analyzes the reasons.
Prof. Xie: “China’s housing prices’ soaring
stems from two reasons.
One is the monopoly of the state, the second is the vested
interest groups’ gaining predatory benefits from the populace.
The current housing price plunge is due to cash flow shortage.
That is, Chinese civilians lack money to spend.
The powerful groups push housing prices, but if civilians have
no money to buy, the houses will sit, unable to be sold.”
Prof. Xie said that the housing bubble is becoming too large,
beyond the limit of what the Chinese people can afford.
The housing prices’ drop may ease some of them a little bit.
But not those who have bought houses.
Especially new owners, prices’ plunge may turn their houses
into negative equities, thus wasting their savings.
That would incite people’s discontent,
triggering social unrests.
Prof. Xie: “A sudden drop in house prices
is likely to bring an economic turmoil.
Because many houses that were sold, that have been built,
and that are stocked up now for sale, are all in loans.
China’ state-owned banks granted massive amount of loans
for local infrastructure development.
Once housing prices fall, these loans will become bad debts
and pull down the banking system."
Economics scholar Qi Yanchen believes that many
property developers had fled due to operation failures.
Then the authorities had to take over,
which added to the local financial burden.
On the other hand, the construction sector directly impacts
its downstream enterprises, like materials’ suppliers, etc.
However, Qi sees a positive side in the falling house prices,
as it can give a hope to the not so rich to buy a house.
Qi Yanchen: “The house prices falling is likely to hit
most directly the local authorities’ land finances.
The local land finances in a broad sense
still include tax revenue from housing transactions.
So, local authorities’ fiscal revenue will be affected.”
The New Housing Price Index of 70 cites shows a steady
drop in the average month-to-month decrease since April.
In November, the figure reached 0.19%,
with a full-scale dropping starting in the first-tier cities.
Prof. Xie points out that the CCP regime is very concerned
about the house prices’ plunge.
Firstly, it is worried about the losses
of vested interests’ groups.
Secondly, it fears the aftermath will lead to the collapse
of its banking and financial system.
However, the CCP regime is unwilling to see a quick hike,
as it will fuel discontent amongst the populace.
Thus the regime is caught up in a dilemma on the issue.
Prof. Xie analyzes that the Beijing regime is helpless
in stopping the housing prices from falling.
Putting more money into it will only cause further inflation.
He concludes, China’s property will face further decline.
Prof. Xie: “China’s economy is clearly worsening.
The real estate bubble should burst soon.
So my guess is that next month,
the housing prices will continue to fall.”
The ‘2012 Bluebook’ also states, commodities’ and houses’
prices are ranked as the top two concerns for people in China.
NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Song Feng and Xiao Yan
