采访/梁欣 编辑/尚燕 后制/黎安安
Will the military make it into the 18th National Congress?
It is said that due to high military officials, representatives,
and generals expecting to share seats in Politburo Standing Committee
in order to get more seats in the Central Committee,
new instability has emerged for the upcoming 18th National Congress of the CCP.
It is said that commanders in charge of several major military
regions, four arms, and four headquarters expect
the military will gain a seat in the Politburo Standing
Committee, and several seats in the Central Committee.
Some generals even suggested that if the Standing Committee
remains at nine this year, the military should occupy two seats.
Military should also take five seats in the Central Committee.
The military in general believes that it’s practical for armed
forces to take one seat in the Standing Committee, and three seats in Central Committee.
Meanwhile, one Central Committee seat should be given
to the Armed Police Force.
The CCP has always stressed that the “Party commands
Only by seizing military power will the party power
and political power be seized.
After the CCP established its regime in 1949, the post
of Central Military Commission (CMC) chairman has always been the party’s leader
such as Mao Zedong, Hua Guofeng, Jiang Zemin,
or concurrently run by the governmental leader, such as Deng Xiaoping.
With the unprecedented infighting triggered by the fall of
Bo Xilai, Hu Jintao has a firm grasp of the army and
has repeatedly stressed that
the army “obey the command of the central CCP."
CCP also controls the armed forces via limiting military seats
in the regime.
Since the 1990s, Liu Huaqing was the only military official
who served the Standing Committee for a brief five years
because of the repression of June 4 student protests in 1989;
the senior military only accounted for two seats in the Politburo Central Committee.
Among the current 25 member Central Committee,
only Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou are from the military with the ranking behind 20.
There is no military personnel in
the Politburo Standing Committee.
Armed Police Forces have no seats
in the Politburo Central Committee.
Commentator Hen He indicates that in a normal country,
no individual party is above the government, and there’s no
need for the military to enter a party’s organization.
But the CCP would not allow a democratically elected
government, and has implemented the one-party dictatorship.
Hen He:"The Communist Party itself has too much power
and therefore, the armed forces demand a greater say in the party, this request has always existed.
If they really made this request strongly this year, it only shows
that the CCP is now becoming increasingly dependent on the army and its ability to govern is decreasing."
The Boxun Network reported that the senior military voices
this time were significantly strong compared to previous years.
If this National Congress session shows no respect
for the opinions of military and leaves the same quota
for the military, it might lead to strong dissatisfaction
in the military and cause instability in the regime.
During the confrontation between Hu-Wen and Zhou Yongkang
who control the Armed Police and Politics and Law Committee.
Thus, military support at the moment is essential.
Will Hu-Wen or Xi Jinping support the military’s proposal
to enter the Standing Committee?
George Mason University Visiting Professor Zhang Tianliang
believes that Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping are both at the civil service,
and therefore may be more conservative in considering
a Standing Committee seat to the military.
Zhang Tianliang: “An army personnel entering the Standing
Committee after the 18th National Congress will be a big threat to Xi Jinping.
Xi Jinping is not a powerful figure.
Within the Communist Party, power speaks, even during
the power struggle.
Xi Jinping does not have a military background,
and he won’t be able to control the army."
If the senior military can really occupy one or two Standing
Committee seats, what affect would it have on the future?
Zhang Tianliang analyzes that the military and
the Politburo Standing Committee often hold different views.
The military opinion showed itself during recent interactions
between the CCP and the neighboring countries.
Zhang Tianliang: “Once the military enters the Politburo
Standing Committee, a split in the CCP is almost certain.
Maybe China will become a military dictatorship,
whichever holds more power will dictate.
Or it will bring further division in the Communist Party."
Hen He believes that a military Standing Committee
may even affect neighboring countries.
Hen He: “Too many military members in the Standing
Committee and Political Bureau only,
in fact, reflects the decreased capability of the party
and the aggravated crisis.
The army has always been a violent group, an armed group,
so it is possible for more domestic violence, repression,
plus war against foreign countries. These possibilities will increase."
Recently, sources disclosed to the foreign media that the 18th
National Congress Standing Committee will drop to seven from nine people.
That is to abolish the two Standing Committee seats elected
from “Political Committee" and “propaganda"
which were added to secure Jiang Zemin’s power
when he abdicated at the 16th National Congress.
A decrease in the number of seats means the concentration
The impact of military’s request of “decentralization"
at the 18th National Congress remains to be seen.