【新唐人2012年9月29日讯】28号，中共中央政治局会议决定了“十八大”的召开日期，及重庆市原市委书记薄熙来被“双开”的处理。对于18大的日期和中共未来的走向，因为王立军出走美领馆，加上胡锦涛缺席联合国会议，中共风雨飘摇的政权更加吸引世界眼球。到底是什么原因导致中共领导人推迟18大？推迟能解决中国的问题吗？胡锦涛为什么会缺席联合国会议？请看专家分析。
就在外媒纷纷猜测，中共18大可能提前召开，17届七中全会将通过对薄熙来处理决定的时刻。《新华社》9月28号报导，薄熙来已被开除党籍，将面临司法机关的审理。报导还说，中共18大将在11月8号召开。
时政评论家横河认为，薄熙来的案子和中共内部在人事安排上的纷争，导致18大延期。
时政评论家横河：“我想是处理薄熙来的事情不得不延期，我一直认为薄熙来的问题必须在18大前，因为新的班子不愿意接这个烫手的山芋，也没有听说过哪一个所谓路线斗争或这种党内斗争的情况会跨届的。”
时政评论员蓝述认为，9月10号，日内瓦联合国人权代表大会上，被曝光的活摘法轮功学员器官事件，引起了中共的恐惧。
蓝述说，薄熙来任职辽宁期间，活摘法轮功学员器官，并贩卖尸体牟利的黑幕，成了中共处理薄熙来的烫手山芋，是否公开这一黑，导致整个中共高层完全分裂。
时政评论员蓝述：“其主要原因也是因为活摘器官的事情，他们不知道怎么处理，不可忽略的因素就是在9月10号召开的第21届联合国人权代表大会上，由于整个国际社会目前聚焦活体摘除器官的事情，毫无疑问，将给北京高层形成巨大的压力。”
北京时政观察人士华颇认为，如果中共不能抛弃一党专政的话，18大提前和推迟都不能真正解决中国存在的问题。
北京时政观察人士华颇：“我觉得改变的时机来讲，机会也有，就是能够实行宪政民主，能够继续深化政治体制改革，这是当务之急，如果要是还是这样被利益集团所绑架，我看以后中国不但经济要硬着陆，政治制度改革也会出现硬着陆的局面，可能社会会出现剧烈震荡的可能。”
《纽约时报》在题为“习近平面临空前挑战”的文章中指出，治理未来十年的中国，可能是全球最艰难的工作之一。中国经济增长减缓，社会矛盾紧张深化，军事民族主义高涨。新兴中产阶级、农民和城市贫民，要求在腐败、土地权利、住房、医疗、污染、甚至强迫堕胎等一系列问题上，具有发言权。建立社会公平感，将是中国下届最高领导人习近平面临的最大挑战之一。
第67届“联合国大会”25号在纽约联合国总部揭幕，全球130多个国家的元首和政府首脑云集纽约，正在进行竞选的美国总统奥巴马也不例外，中国国家主席胡锦涛却没有露面，引起外界关注。
西方媒体认为，事关中共领导阶层十年一度大换班的18大即将举行，接班人事颇费周章，新领导班子又面临空前挑战，再加上钓鱼岛危机和国内丑闻，胡必须亲自坐镇北京，无法分身。
蓝述说，中共高层对薄王事件的处理中，完全回避薄王事件背后活摘法轮功学员器官的罪恶，谷开来和王立军案中也没有提及这个挑战人类道德底线的问题，蓝述认为，胡锦涛缺席的更重要原因是为了回避国际社会的质问。
时政评论员蓝述：“任何像中共高层的这些人，胡温都没有办法面对联合国目前如此聚焦，如此高度的聚焦这个活体摘除法轮功学员器官这么一个热门话题，他如果真的到了联合国的话，在国际的媒体和世界各个国际社会人权组织的这个直接向他提出问题时候，他没有办法回答这个问题。”
另外，在联合国会议上，领土、领海的争端，成为今年辩论的热点。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/钟元
Analysts discuss why the 18th CCP’s National Congress is
delayed and why Hu Jintao is absent from the UN meeting
On September 28th, the CCP’s Central Politburo finally
announced the schedule of the 18th National Congress.
The Politburo also announced that Bo Xilai has been expelled
both from the party and public office.
Since Wang Lijun defected to the U.S. consulate, the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) regime is more unstable than ever.
As Hu Jintao missed the United Nations General Assembly’s
annual meeting this week,
the CCP’s future and its coming National Congress
caught even more worldly attention.
What’s the reason for delaying the 18th National Congress?
Will such delay help solve China’s problems?
Why is Hu Jintao absent from the UN meeting?
Analysts have provided their answers to these questions.
Most foreign media recently speculate that the schedule of
18th National Congress will be brought forward.
The disciplinary measures against Bo Xilai will be determined
during the 7th plenary session at 17th CCP’s Central Committee.
On September 28th, Xinhua news agency reported that Bo Xilai
has been expelled from the party and will face criminal charges.
At the same time, the report wrote that the CCP’s 18th
National Congress will be held on November 8th.
Political commentator Heng He believes that the 18th
National Congress is delayed to deal with Bo Xilai’s case
as well as in-party conflicts of personnel arrangements.
(Heng He, political commentator):”I think it is Bo Xilai’s case
that delays the congress.
I always believe Bo’s case will be finished before congress
because the new leader group is not willing to take over this hot potato.
I also didn’t hear that any CCP’s internal fight over
future route would be left unsolved for the new leaders.”
Another political commentator Lan Shu remarked that
the CCP were horrified by its crime of live organ harvesting
from Falun Gong practitioners had been exposed at the
Conference of UN Human Rights Council in Geneva.
Lan Shu said Bo Xilai was the backstage culprit of live organ
harvesting and human body trade as Governor of Liaoning.
This atrocious crime has become a most difficult issue for
the CCP to deal with.
Its leaders have had completely different opinions on
whether to announce these facts to the public.
(Lan Shu, political commentator):”One major reason to delay
the 18th National Congress is that they don’t know how to handle the issue of live organ harvesting.
You can’t ignore that this crime was exposed at the 21st
Conference of UN Human Rights Council on September 10th.
Because all the global society is currently focusing on this crime,
the CCP leaders are undoubtedly under enormous pressure.”
Beijing political observer Hua Po believes if the CCP cannot
abandon its one-party dictatorship regime,
nothing will be resolved no matter when
the 18th National Congress is held.
(Hua Po, Beijing political observer):”I think there is still
chance to make changes,
such as implementing constitutional democracy and
furthering reforms of political framework.
These are the most urgent things to do right now.
If the CCP’s vested interest group continues to kidnap
China’s political regime, I think both China’s economy and
political reform will have to experience a hard landing, which
can possibly lead to a great disturbance of the whole nation.”
A New York Times article titled “Unprecedented Challenges
for Xi Jinping” wrote that,
one of the most difficult jobs in the world must be
governing China in the next 10 years.
China is now experiencing a slowdown in economic
development, intensified conflicts among social groups, and upsurge of military nationalism.
The developing middle classes, peasants and the urban
poor are requesting more rights to speak on the issues of
anti-corruption, use of land, housing, medical treatment,
pollution and forced abortion, among others.
One of the biggest challenges for Xi Jinping will be building
up real social justice in China.
Since September 25th, the 67th session of UN
General Assembly was held in New York.
The heads of over 130 countries gathered in the meeting,
including President Obama of the United States.
However, the CCP’s national president Hu Jintao was absent
from the meeting, which has drawn attention from outsiders.
Western media believe that as the critical 18th National
Congress approaches, Hu Jintao has to stay in Beijing to handle the difficulties in personnel arrangements;
the challenges in front of the new leader group, the crisis
of Sensaku Islands disputes and political scandals in China altogether made the situation even worse for Hu.
Lan Shu remarked that until now the CCP leaders had totally
evaded the issue of live organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners during the handling of Bo Xilai’s case.
Such a crime which challenges humanity’s basic morality was
also ignored in the trials of Gu Kailai and Wang Lijun.
Lan Shu believes that, a more important reason for Hu’s
absence from the UN meeting is to escape the queries from global society.
(Lan Shu, political commentator): ”Any CCP leader,
including Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao,
is not able to face the leaders in the UN meeting when live
organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners is such a hot topic.
If Hu really attends the meeting, he cannot respond if media
or human rights organization question him on this issue.”
It is reported that territorial disputes are another hot
topic in this year’s UN meeting.
