【新唐人2012年10月13日讯】近来，中共媒体连续撰文，罕见的高调谈论“政改”。外界认为，从中共高层的各派到基层及百姓都认识到了，中国已经走入死胡同，变革势在必行。但目前官方媒体的这些动作，或许是高层在释放“风向标”——就是，十八大后政改会有突破。另一方面，甚至有评论指称，这一系列动作，是习近平为自己接班后施展拳脚夯实基础。不过，中共政权到底能改变到什么程度？
中共中央机关报《人民日报》发表评论部文章，声称：坚持改革已是举国共识，但需不计毁誉和坚不可摧的创新意志，才能推动。同时，日报旗下的杂志《人民论坛》，也刊登了“新政治观”专题，探讨政治体制改革。
据传，一直高呼“政改”的中共总理温家宝，最近显得十分洒脱，“神清气爽”，除正常政务活动外，还非正式的到大学演讲，甚至亲往体总球馆参加篮球比赛。知情者说，温家宝是因为最近一吐心中“块垒”，而倍感如释重负。
有消息人士向《新纪元》杂志透露，近年来温家宝多次提出要政治改革，给六四、法轮功平反。消息人士说，温家宝尤其对“活摘法轮功学员器官”一事最为愤怒，而江泽民延续下来的血债累累，也正是促使温家宝实现司法独立、和政改的决心。
另外，在美国的“中国社会民主党——中央委员会”主持人刘因全认为，目前中国的矛盾已经激化到极点，中共犹如坐在火山口上，党内温家宝、汪洋等开明派是想走普世价值的道路。他说，通过前一段的博弈，“开明派”已经站了上风。
美“中国社会民主党——中央委员会”主持人 刘因全：“作为我们民主人士和异议人士，应该和党内的开明派结盟，推动开明派走政治体制改革的道路，最后就是把共产党彻底的改变掉，变成其他的党，然后走多党制，然后使中国走普世价值的道路。”
据刘因全分析，中国的民主路还很长，由于国内民间的民主力量遭到政法委的残酷打压，已经边缘化，而海外的民主力量被中共分化瓦解，如一盘散沙。
刘因全：“推动改革的力量没有成军，没有形成一个有组织有规模的力量，他们被分割、被删贴、被边缘化、被打击的底层，他们没有话语权，在这种情况下推动改革是有难度。”
不过“中国公民监政会”发起人郭永丰认为，这些文章只是为了“在思想上维稳”，给老百姓一些期待。因此，不会进行真正意义上的“政改”。
“中国公民监政会”发起人 郭永丰：“当前民间政改的呼声非常的高，社会的矛盾越来越激烈，中共掌权的越来越孤立，越来越不得人心，还有各方面的政策和措施在民间行不通，在他们内部也推不动，各种各样问题都出现，迫使他们不得不政改，怎么改？那就是要向自己的头上开刀，他们是非常痛心的，没办法，那就只好招摇，玩花招。”
有评论认为，目前的动向表明，胡锦涛和温家宝已经磨好了刀，就等着“习近平亮剑”了。
郭永丰：“我认为民间的力量、政改的力量、包括体制内政改的力量，达到了一定极限之后，要让它彻底的改，那就是脱胎换骨。首先解除共产党的一党专制，取消党的领导，这个要解决的话，那么开放党政、报禁，那就纯属必然，这个不解决，那其他的改革毫无意义。”
郭永丰还表示，习近平仍然在党的框架内思考“政改”。郭永丰认为，坐等民主自由从天而降，无异是痴人说梦，终结独裁制度往往只有在足够强大的压力之下才会产生，他希望真正的政改能像汪洋宣称的那样：“在共产党自己的头上开刀”。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/孙宁
CCP ‘Political Reform’: How Much Can the Regime Change?
Repeated high-profile statements of “political reform"
have recently been released through Chinese Communist Party(CCP) state-controlled media.
Observers state that from top to bottom, all levels in China
have known that carrying out political reform is imperative.
The public speculated that through the media,
the top-levels of the CCP are releasing information.
That is, it is suggested a breakthrough will be made
in political reform after the 18th Party Congress.
Others hold views that these official assertions
aim to give Xi Jinping an opportunity to show strength after taking office.
The question is how much can the CCP regime change?
People’s Daily, the CCP’s official state
media, has released a commentary.
It states there is a nationwide consensus to follow reform.
Yet, only indestructible, innovative
willpower can push forward this process.
The People’s Tribune, a magazine under the People’s Daily,
published a series of “New Political Views" special reports.
These discuss reform of the political system.
CCP Premier Wen Jiabao is known
for advocating political reform.
He was recently reported to be looking “refreshed”.
Aside from his normal duties, Wen has
given unofficial speeches at universities.
He has also participated in Basketball games.
Informed sources state that this is because Wen has
been unburdened from “heavy depression” in his soul.
Sources told the Epoch Weekly magazine that in recent
years, Wen Jiabao repeatedly pushed for political reform.
Wen also proposed the vindication of the 1989
pro-democracy movement, and Falun Gong.
Sources said that Wen was most infuriated by the crime
of live organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners.
These blood-debts, originating from Jiang Zemin, impelled
Wen to seek judicial independence, and political reform.
Liu Yinquan, Chair of Social Democratic Party of China,
says that social conflicts in China have peaked.
It is like the CCP regime is sitting on a volcano.
Liberal CCP factions represented by Wen Jiabao and
Wang Yang intends to take the road of universal values.
Liu Yinquan thinks that after undergoing earlier
struggles, the liberal faction has gotten the upper hand.
Liu Yinquan: “We democrats and dissidents should ally
with the liberal CCP factions to promote political reform.
The purpose is to finally and completely
change the CCP, turning it into another party.
With that, we shall embrace a multi-party system in politics.
That will finally help China get on the path of universal values."
Liu Yinquan thinks that China still has
a long way to go before realizing democracy.
Democratic forces in China have been under a crackdown
by the CCP Central Political and Legal Committee.
Overseas democrats are being disintegrated
by the CCP, and lack cohesion, says Liu Yinquan.
Liu Yinquan: “People who promote reform
haven’t yet formed an organized force.
Instead, they have been divided up, have internet
posts removed, and are marginalized and isolated.
They have lost right to speak,
so it’s hard to push forward reform.”
Guo Yongfeng, founder of ‘Chinese Citizen Watchdog’,
discusses the CCP’s official commentaries.
These articles just serve to “maintain stability on thought”,
and promise some dreams for Chinese civilians, he says.
Therefore, there will no “political reform”
in a real sense, Guo Yongfeng believes.
Guo Yongfeng: “Now there’s a high appeal
for political reform from Chinese civilians.
Social conflicts have intensified, which
has made the CCP’s rule more unpopular.
What’s more, various official policies
and measures are not working in practice.
A variety of issues have emerged, forcing
the regime to consider political reform.
But how can they do it?
They have to axe their own being.
They are certainly very reluctant to do that,
but they have to. So, they are doing it by playing tricks."
Political observers suggest Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao
have set the scene, waiting for Xi Jinping to “draw his sword”.
Guo Yongfeng: “I think that when civilian forces
and pro-reform forces push the CCP to its limit, it will have to face a complete change.
Firstly, it will have to cancel the CCP one-party rule.
Next, it must lift bans on political parties and on the press.
Without these changes, other reforms will be pointless.”
Guo Yongfeng states that Xi Jinping is still thinking
about “political reform" under the CCP regime.
Guo believes that only sufficient
pressure can help end the tyranny.
Guo hopes that real political reform will occur,
in a way that is similar to Wang Yang’s assertion.
Wang previously claimed the need
“to put an axe in the head of the CCP.”
