【新唐人2012年10月23日讯】最近有报导指出，中共党内有三大势力，将成为“18大”后中共新领导人习近平的政治幕僚，以辅佐这位“新主”坐稳江山。但也有评论指出，习近平上位后，要么进行“宫廷政变式”的大变局，要么将成为中共的“末代皇帝”。在这条艰难险阻的接班路上，习近平要如何做呢？一起来看看。
最新一期的台湾杂志《卓越》指出，“太子党”精神领袖、中共元老叶剑英之子叶选宁、和前总书记胡耀邦之子胡德平，以及现任中组部部长李源潮，将成为习近平掌权后的“三大政治幕僚”。
报导说，叶选宁在“太子党”中，名望极高且影响力大，是习近平政、商关系的重要牵线者。而69岁的胡德平，现任全国政协常委、经济委员会副主任委员，近年被外界视为“大力推动改革”势力的代言人。另外一位人物李源潮，据传在习近平近日前有关政改的主张中，扮演着智囊角色。
美国民主大学校长唐柏桥：“叶选宁、胡德平啊，也都算太子党，李源潮算半个太子党。这些人可能是习近平要仰仗的一些对像吧。第二个可能是习近平的地方站，经营了很多年，从福州到福建，到中央、上海，后来又到中央。所以他在每个地方，像福建很多地方，有他治理的人脉，庞大的智库队伍吧。”
不过，时事评论员司马泰分析认为，即使有这套班子，习近平上台后面临着的环境却更为严峻。
时事评论员司马泰：“他得有一套智囊班子帮他提供一个政策，因为前面的话经济势头很好，全球经济都很火红的时候，一俊遮百丑，他就可以把很多事情掩盖过去，但经济一不好，支票就变成很多空头支票了，所以这个负担、帐就落到了习近平身上。”
中国时政评论人李伟东接受《德国之声》采访时表示，如果习近平继续维持现有统治模式，中国将面临着“辛亥革命式”的革命。习也很可能成为中共的“末代皇帝”。
而在习近平传出“背伤”的同时，9月7号《路透社》发表独家报导指称，习近平与胡德平举行了私人会谈，习一是表示要政改，二是表示和薄熙来并非“友人”，对薄要施以党纪国法。
《阳光时务》出版人陈平：“这个胡德平本身和他父亲一样是一个具有民主意识的改革思想的人，也是具有希望将中国带到民主的、繁荣的一个健康社会上的人。”
司马泰分析，由于受江泽民、周永康“第二中央”的箝制，所以胡温政策出不了“中南海”，如果习近平把江、周这股势力拿下去后，会比胡温执政时有优势。
司马泰：“如果把势力打下去以后后，如果习近平他能够制定一个好的方针出来，能够执行，可能会取得一点收获，但是非常有限的，因为这个共产党这个体制本身，决定了它到亡党的时候，所有的力量都会起来维护这个党的统治。习近平我个人认为他不太有这种魄力，能够把共产党整个改革掉，可能（在）把共产党整个政权抛弃掉以后，意识形态空上禁锢抛弃掉（后），可能他会（有）真正的新政出来。”
自王立军、薄熙来事件以来，“中共活摘器官”的惊天罪恶在国际社会上频频曝光。由于胡锦涛、温家宝包括习近平对迫害法轮功问题一直采取消极态度，周永康和江泽民等迫害法轮功的“血债帮”，非常害怕失去权力后后遭到清算，想方设法在“18大”权力交接问题上搅局。
因此，有分析指出，“18大”最大的不确定性，表现在中共对法轮功问题的处理上。但不管主动或被动，中共都将解体，并被押上历史的审判台。
而到底是做中共的“末代皇帝”还是做戈尔巴乔夫，这个选题得留给习近平来做。
采访/常春 编辑/王子琦 后制/柏妮
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Analysts Discuss Xi Jinping’s Future as Media Reveals Aides
Recent reports say, three major forces inside the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) will serve to aid Xi Jinping
after its 18th Congress, supporting the new CCP leader
toward a smooth power transition.
Others say Xi must carry out a revolutionary reform after
taking power, to avoid becoming the CCP’s “last emperor”.
What will be Xi’s choice as the next CCP leader
under such a difficult situation?
Let’s review various opinions.
Taiwan magazine, ZhuoYue, published an article saying that,
Xi Jinping will have 3 major political aides after taking power.
They are: Ye Xuanning, the son of Ye Jianying and the spiritual
leader of the Princelings;
Hu Deping, the son of former CCP General Secretary
Hu Yaobang;
and Li Yuanchao, head of the Organization Department
of the CCP Central Committee.
The article says, Ye Xuanning has a high reputation
and a great influence among the Princelings.
Ye acts as an important intermediary between Xi Jinping
and many politicians or business people.
69-year-old Hu Deping is in the standing committee of
the Political Consultative Conference (PCC) and is vice president of the General Chamber of Industry & Commerce.
Hu is regarded by outsiders as a representative figure
of the reformist group.
The last aide, Li Yuanchao, is believed to act as a think-tank
member in drafting Xi Jinping’s recent political reform plan.
[Tang Boqiao, President, New York Democracy University]:
“Ye Xuanning and Wu Deping are princelings,
and Li Yuanchao can be regarded as a half princeling;
they may be who Xi Jinping will mainly depend on in future.
Also Xi has held local official roles for a long time;
working in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, Shanghai
and other local places before being promoted
into the CCP’s central circle.
So he probably has large think-tank groups and strong
networks in those places such as Fujian Province.”
Yet political commentator Sima Tai believes, even with aides
Xi will face an even worse situation after coming to power.
[Sima Tai, Political Commentator]:
”Xi Jinping really needs a good think-tank to help in policies.
Since the global economy was strong in previous years,
many problems could be hidden behind decent-looking achievements in economic development.
However, as economic crises worsen, many promises
have become empty ones, with an unclear prospect.
All these burdens are placed on Xi Jinping’s shoulders.”
In an interview by Deutsche Welle, China affairs political
commentator Li Weidong said, if Xi Jinping sticks to the current CCP’s governing regime,
a new “Xinhai Revolution” may finally break out in China.
If this materializes, Xi will become the CCP’s “last emperor”.
Reuters published an exclusive report on Xi’s recent
‘disappearance’, which was allegedly due to a back injury.
The report published on September 7th revealed that,
Xi Jinping had met privately with Hu Deping.
Xi told Hu that, firstly, he will carry out a political reform;
and secondly, that he is not a friend of Bo Xilai and will bring
disciplinary punishment and legal actions against him.
[Chen Ping, Publisher, iSunaffairs Weekly]:
”Like his father, Hu Deping has an innovative mind with democratic consciousness.
Hu is a person who might introduce democracy, prosperity
and a more healthy society into China.”
According to Sima Tai’s analysis, it’d been hard for Hu Jintao
and Wen Jiabao to implement their administrative plans outside Zhongnanhai,
due to interference by the ‘Second Central Government’
led by Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang.
If Xi manages to eliminate Jiang and Zhou’s faction, he will
have a large advantage compared with Hu and Wen’s era.
[Sima Tai]: ”If Jiang’s forces are eliminated and
if Xi can present and carry out some good policies,
he might be able to make some progress in China.
However, such improvement may be very limited,
because the CCP’s regime will always protect its power
with all available resources before it dies out.
I don’t think Xi Jinping has the determination to change
the whole CCP regime with his reform.
A real reform will only come out if Xi completely abandons
the CCP’s dictatorship and its restrictions on ideology.”
Since the Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai incident, the CCP’s evil
crime of live organ harvesting has been frequently exposed in the global society.
Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping have shown a passive
attitude on the issue of the persecution of Falun Gong.
The Jiang Zemin’s “Blood Debt Faction” and Zhou Yongkang
have done everything possible to interfere with the power transition before the 18th National Congress;
they are scared of being brought to justice
if they lose the power.
Consequently, some analysts say, the biggest uncertainty of
the 18th National Congress lies in how the CCP leaders handle the Falun Gong issue.
In any case, the CCP will finally disintegrate and all its crimes
throughout its history will be brought to justice, whether in an active or passive way.
As for Xi Jinping, he is left with the choice of being either
the “last emperor” of the CCP or the Gorbachev of China.
