【禁闻】十八党代走老路 专家看坏中国经济

【新唐人2012年11月10日讯】中共十八大会议开幕当天,大陆股市开低走低,直到9号仍然以跌势收盘。经济专家认为,近年来中国股市的总体形势是熊市。从这一次党代会观察,中国经济不会有“向好”的迹象。

8号,A股沪深大盘双双低开低走,呈现加速回调行情。上证指数也再次跌破2100点。有媒体分析,是中共十八大政治的不确定性骤然增强所导致。

今年以来国际股市纷纷止跌回升。但大陆股市屡创新低,45个月以来毫无起色。

旅美中国经济社会学者程晓农分析,中国股市是“政策式”,完全受中共当局影响。大陆股民没有长期投资的心思或者需要,无非是跟着政策走。

旅美中国经济社会学者程晓农:“18大召开以后反而股市下跌,可能一个重要的因素就是大家看不到任何热点,或者说18大没有给他们指出任何赚钱的机会来﹔或者是,中国那些专门鼓吹股市的股评家,没有编造出新故事。”

北京大学经济学院教授,加州大学访问学者夏业良也指出,认真看十八大的开幕式,就知道根本是换汤不换药。

北京大学经济学院教授夏业良:“基本上还是抱残守缺。这个大会完全是一个退步的大会﹔这是最近这10年、20年以来,可能是最糟糕的一次大会。他把过去毛泽东的阴魂还招回来。18大那个报告,基本上都是过去那些条条框框,非常陈腐的一些教条还在召开,一点新意都没有,太让人失望,也根本不会给中国带来新的气象。”

虽然,稍早外界传出十八大换届之后,会有政治体制改革等消息。因而,对未来经济趋势抱持期望。但夏业良认为,从这一次的党代会,看不到十八大之后,经济上会有任何更好的迹象。从经济学的角度分析,股市涨跌不会因为党代会的换届而有大的影响。而大陆的股民,也从来都不是靠投资稳健的回报而获利。

夏业良:“而是一直靠市场的兴风作浪。特别是在中国称为政策式,就是内幕消息,黑箱操作,包括一些特殊的政策,都会对股市造成激烈的震荡。”

程晓农提到,2008年,中国股市下降了65%,从6千点跌到2千多点,50%的股民损失了70%的资金,大伤元气。而几年来大陆经济总体的趋势,股市就是喋喋不休的熊市。夏业良分析,尤其是过去5到8年的大陆经济政策,呈现严重的“国进民退”,是主要原因之一。

夏业良:“(中国)经济上是向计划回归,离市场化的道路越走越远,我把它称为逆市场化的行为。这样一种做法,损害了老百姓长期的信心,投资者也失去了信心,在这个情况下很多人觉得股市很长时间都没有任何复苏的希望。”

有分析认为,目前大陆经济下行已触底,将在今年底或明年初逐渐反弹。分析者根据的是﹕中共当局推出“稳增长”政策已超过半年,半年之后会逐渐显现政策效果。而前期中共国家发改委批准的一大批投资项目,将陆续开工,这些,都是摆脱长期熊市、逐步震荡走高的因素。

程晓农:“中国的股市是,中国政府国有股的上市公司,是用来圈股民钱的工具,把钱骗走了就拉倒了。分析中国的股市其实没有多大意义,因为中国股市已经完了,已经完蛋了,不会再有活力了。”

不少经济专家都不看好中国大陆未来的经济。不论大陆股民对中共当局圈钱方式已了若指掌或是阮囊羞涩,大陆股市要筑底翻盘,恐怕还需要一段时间。

采访编辑/梁欣 后制/孙宁

Experts Believe China’s Economy Is Not Getting Better

On the opening day of the 18th Congress,
the Mainland stock market opened lower.
Up until the time of our report on Nov. 9,
it continued to decline.
Economic experts believe that, in recent years, the overall
situation of China’s stock market has been bearish.
From the observation of the Congress,
the Chinese economy is not improving.

On No. 8, both A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen market
opened lower, showing accelerated pullback.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,100 points again.

Media analysis shows it is a result of the Chinese Communist
Party’s 18th Congress abrupt uncertainty.

This year the international stock markets have turned up.

But the Mainland stock market has been falling continuously,
and has had 45 months of doldrums.

The China economic sociologist, Cheng Xiaonong, analyzes
that China’s stock market is “policy style" which is completely influenced by the Communist authorities.
Mainland investors do not have long-term investments
in mind, and they have to go along with the policies.

Cheng Xiaonong: “Since the opening of the 18th Congress,
the stock market has declined.
One important factor is that people clearly know the 18th
Congress has not brought them any opportunities to make money.
Perhaps, those pundits specializing in propaganda for the stock
market have not invented a new story."

Xia Yeliang, Peking Univ. School of Economics professor
and visiting scholar of Univ. of California, comments that
everyone who looks at 18th Congress opening ceremony
seriously knows that it is the same old game.

Professor Xia Yeliang: “It is too conservative.

The entire assembly has taken a step backward,
it’s probably the worst assembly in the last 20 years.
It has even brought back Mao’s ghost.

Basically, there are only the banal dogmas, but no new ideas.
It is quite disappointing and offers no new outlooks for china.”

Although earlier, news circulated about a political reform
after the party conference, which helped fuel expectations of a better future economic trend,
Xia Yeliang thinks there has failed to be any
economic improvement.
Analyzing from the point of view of economics, the stock
market’s downtrend will not change due to the Congress.
Mainland investors never rely on robust investment
returns to profit.

Xia Yeliang: “They have relied on the troubles, insider news,
including some special policies which cause an intense shock to the market, to stir up the market.

Cheng Xiaonong mentioned that China’s stock market fell 65%
in 2008 – from 6000 points to over 2000 points.
Half the investors lost 70% of the investment,
which was very devastating.
The overall trend of the Mainland’s economy in the past
few years has been a never ending bearish market.
Xia Yeliang analyses that for the past 5-8 years,
the Mainland has presented a “forward country with economically backward people,”
which is the main reason for the drawn-out bearish
market.

Xia Yeliang: “China’s economy has returned to the plan,
farther and farther away from the market-oriented path.
I call it the inverse market-oriented behavior.
Such an approach erodes the people’s confidence.
Investors have lost confidence.

Many people think that there is no hope for the market
to recover, even after a long period of time."

Some analysts believe that the current continental economic
downturn has bottomed out and at the end of this year or early next year, it will gradually rebound.
Analysis showed that Communist authorities launched
the “steady growth" policy more than six months ago
and six months later, the effects of the policy
should have gradually appeared.
The National Development and Reform Commission previously
approved the upstart of a large number of investment projects.
These are factors to get rid of the long-term bear market
and to gradually move higher.

Cheng Xiaonong: “China’s stock market is, for the Chinese
government, state-owned listed companies to trap the investors’ money.
Once they have your money, they leave.

There is no use to analyze China’s stock market,
because it is finished and has no vitality.”

Many economic experts are not optimistic
about the future of China’s economy.
Mainland investors have fully understood the ways
the Chinese authorities take their money.
It would take a long time before the Mainland
stock market can make a comeback.

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