【新唐人2013年05月28日讯】中共喉舌《新华社》23号报导，中共总理李克强发表署名文章，谈中国正积极推进城镇化。然而就在同一天，英国《路透社》说，李克强将中国城镇化支出6万亿5亿美元的计划打回，因为担忧再一次大规模的支出，可能推高地方债务，并且吹大地产泡沫。
23号，《新华社》报导了李克强在瑞士《新苏黎世报》发表题为《为什么选择瑞士》的署名文章，文中提到，中国正在积极推进城镇化。
中国计划未来10年，支出约40万亿人民币，来将4亿人口转移到城市。
但《路透社》23号透露，城镇化方案可能延迟。报导说，为国务院提供咨询的一家智库的经济学家表示，中共高层领导人已经看到了计划不能正确实施，所可能带来的潜在风险。
由于许多地方当局已经开始游说，来获得项目融资，从而引起了高层领导人的警惕。地方政府不是把城镇化视为改革，而只是当做扩大投资的最后机会。
由于中国城镇化政策一直存在很大争议。专家指出，如果李克强真的做出了推迟城镇化的决定，还是比较明智的。
美国南卡罗来纳大学教授谢田：“城镇化方案延迟，这个应该是正确的。本来人为的强制性搞城镇化，实际上是不符合自然经济发展规律的。盲目的城镇化，可能会破坏中国农业的发展，也破坏城镇的社会结构。”
中国国内媒体也在24号报导，已有消息指称，内地城镇化中长期规划再次修改，重点是抑制地方投资冲动。
地方政府之所以加紧游说投资，是由于城镇化被视为扩大内需的最大潜力。之前在2008年，中共推出4万亿人民币的刺激计划来应对全球金融危机，这些政策遗留的影响，让地方政府目前债台高筑，房价扶摇直上。此后，中央政府加强房地产调控，造成土地收入下滑和资产缩水，更增加了地方政府的偿债压力。
《人民日报》海外版27号说，中共不会再推新版的四万亿经济刺激计划。
谢田：“这是因为他们已经看到了，那个旧版的刺激计划给中国带来了巨大的问题。巨大的飞速增长，难以控制的通货膨胀。中国的民怨、民愤现在已经增到了临界点。中共当然知道，它如果再继续印发钞票，继续推进通货膨胀，继续制造房地产和股市的泡沫的话，它自己的政治生命马上面临着终结。”
大陆媒体呼吁，深化改革才是根本出路。《路透社》的报导也说，李克强近期打回了发改委提出的新型城镇化草案，要求加以调整，从而更加侧重户籍和土地改革。但是专家们指出，无论是户籍和土地改革都非常困难。
北京《国情内参》首席研究员 巩胜利：“现在居住证，李克强政府已经决定上了。如果两个制度，一个户口制，再加上现在的居住证，再加上身份证，中国一个人哪，三证在一个人身上。证越多，人生的成本越高，政府耗费的越多，纳税人交的钱，承担的就越高。”
谢田：“在中国来说，这种涉及户籍、土地的问题，都和政治体制紧密的连系在一起。所以它这个改革能不能推进？推进到什么程度？是真的改革呢？还是喊口号？我们还不知道。但是真要改革的话，我想这一定跟中共的解体是同步的。”
中国今年第一季度经济总体复苏乏力，5月份刚出炉的汇丰PMI初值也跌破枯荣线，创7个月以来最低。为了维持经济成长率，“新城镇化”被视为今后中国经济发展的首要政策，但目前政府似乎开始担忧，这一举措可能带来更大的债务和泡沫。
采访/刘惠 编辑/尚燕 后制/李月
Overseas Media: China’s Urbanization Suffers Setbacks
On May 23, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s
mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency reported on an article
published by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, which spoke of
how “China is actively promoting urbanization.”
But on the same day, Reuters commented that Li will reject
the over $6-trillion spending plan on China’s urbanization
with the concern that massive spending would
increase local debt and expand the property bubble.
On May 23, Xinhua News Agency reported that
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang published an article
in Swiss New Zurich Newspaper, titled Why Swiss Was Chosen.
The article says China is actively promoting urbanization.
In the next 10 years China plans to spend over 40 trillion yuan
($6.5 trillion) to migrate 400 million people to cities.
But Reuters reported on May 23 that the
urbanization plan might be postponed.
It says economists in the think-tank for China’s State Council
say CCP leaders foresee the plan not being carried out properly
and its potential risks.
Many local governments have started lobbying to get funding
for projects, putting high-level CCP officials on alert.
Local governments don’t treat urbanization as reform,
but simply as last their chances to expand investment.
Since there has always been much controversy
around China’s urbanization policy,
experts say it’s a wise choice if Li Keqiang made
the decision to postpone urbanization.
University of South Carolina Professor Xie Tian:
“The delay of the urbanization program should be correct.
Artificially mandatory urbanization is not consistent with
the natural law of economic development.
Blind urbanization might undermine agricultural development,
and also destroy the social structure of cities and towns.”
China’s internal media also reported on May 24 that medium
and long-term urbanization planning might be updated,
focusing on suppressing local government’s investment impulse.
Local government’s lobbying for investment is due to
urbanization being considered as the greatest potential
for expanding domestic demand.
In 2008, the CCP launched a 4 trillion yuan ($650 billion)
stimulus plan to cope with the global financial crisis,
causing local government’s high debt and soaring house prices.
Since then, the central government strengthened real estate
regulation, resulting in land assets revenue decline
and increased pressure on local government’s debt.
The overseas edition of People’s Daily said on May 27 that
the CCP would not promote a new version of the
4 trillion yuan stimulus plan.
Xie Tian: “It’s because they have seen the huge problems
the stimulus plan brought to China.
Huge and fast development led to uncontrollable inflation.
Chinese people’s anger and hatred have reached the limit.
The CCP knows printing money would increase inflation and
continue to expand the real estate and stock market bubble,
and its political life would end immediately.”
Chinese media call on deepening the reform.
Reuters’ report also stated that
Li Keqiang recently rejected the new urbanization plan brought
up by the National Development and Reform Commission.
Li asks to focus on household registration and land reform.
However experts say the reform is very difficult.
Chief Researcher Gong Shengli of Beijing’s Internal Reference:
“Li Keqiang has made his decision on the residence permit.
With the Hukou system, residence permit and ID card,
there are three IDs for everybody.
The more IDs there are, the higher the cost of life and
the government expenditure of taxpayer’s money.”
Xie Tian: “China’s Hukou system and land issue
are closely related to its political system.
So can the reform be implemented?
If so, to what extent?
Will it be a real reform or just a slogan?
We do not know yet.
If the reform is real, I think it will be on
the same path as the CCP’s collapse.”
China’s first quarter overall economic recovery is weak.
HSBC’s PMI in May also fell below the line of prosperity,
hitting a record low in 7 months.
In order to maintain the economic growth rate,
“new urbanization" is regarded as China’s prime policy
for future economic development.
But the current government seems to worry that
this initiative could lead to greater debt and bubbles.
