【新唐人2014年05月21日讯】那么就在越南因为领土纷争爆发排华暴力事件之后，中、美军队最高将领在美国会晤，华盛顿指责北京试图通过武力改变现状。而专家指出，越南和中国这两个共产主义国家，在国内矛盾重重的背景之下，将矛头对准彼此，只希望转移民众的视线。
中共官方《新华社》周日报导说，五艘中国船只将开赴越南帮助撤退。交通部说，有一艘船已经从海南省出发。16名受伤严重的中国公民，周日被医疗包机运出越南。
美国“纽约城市大学”政治学教授夏明指出，越南跟中国在传统上一直有仇视关系，因为越南跟中国原来是附属国，一直寻求独立。后来被法国殖民，越南又反法国，再后来美国卷入，越南又反美国。现在中国成为越南最大的贸易伙伴国家，越南无论是政治、经济和文化生活，受到中国影响非常大。
美国纽约城市大学政治学教授夏明：“所以越南老百姓担忧跟中国绑的这么紧，而且两个都是共产党国家，可能给越南带来亡国的危险。所以越南民族主义情绪一直是引发冲突的长久的根源。而这个民族主义情绪，早在72年就有西沙的海战，在79年又有中越边境战争。这些都使得这两个国家埋下仇恨的种子。现在中国经济不断渗透，中国商人和物品不断涌向越南，给越南人造成很大的冲击和压力。”
此外，最近越南经济因为货币金融危机，越南老百姓失业率高，自身社会问题多，大量的中国投资者、游客不断产生摩擦点。现在，涉及到中国的石油勘探设备进入西沙群岛地区，引发越南人更大不安。
夏明也指出，越南人的不安，背后恐怕还跟日本和美国对越南的支持，以及越南国内的权力冲突有关。这涉及越南在中国、美国和俄国三角之间，希望寻找一个平衡。
夏明：“他们意识到如果是跟中国靠得太紧，可能会让他们亡国。但如果跟美国靠得太紧跟日本靠得太紧，它又是共产党国家，它的意识形态，它的共产党统治可能受到威胁。在这种情况下，越南试图想达到一种平衡，既想维持共产主义的政权体系和意识形态，同时又想用民族主义加强它的统治。”
美国有线新闻网《CNN》报导说，尽管领土纷争点燃了暴力，但是在南海，双方似乎都没有显示任何后退的迹象。越南官方媒体指责中共继续显示“侵略性”，派出更多军舰到钻井周围海域。越南要求中共立刻从争议海域撤回钻井。
越南官员说，中共船只冲撞越南船只，向它们发射水炮。中共方面也指责越南船只采取类似行动，说它们试图扰乱钻井钻探运作。中共宣布钻井周围三英里范围是它的专属区，这个钻井由国营“中海油公司”运营。
中共军方总参谋长房峰辉上周访美，在会见美国联席参谋长主席马丁•邓普西之后声称，“在领土问题上”，中共的态度是坚定的，“寸步不让”。而邓普西说，当前“我们不得不承认存在领土争端”，包括“到底什么是现状，以及谁在寻求改变它。”
夏明指出，中共在过去几年，尤其从2008年奥运会之后，基本上走了一条强国、强军、对外强硬扩张的态势。而越南的反华暴力事件，令中共骑虎难下。
夏明：“现在中国老百姓都在看中国政府，如果你连越南都搞不定，那么你过去吹嘘的东西都是虚假的东西。那么尤其如果你对中国老百姓这么狠，对内这么残忍、这么强暴，那你为什么对外一些利益没有办法作出应有的反应？所以在这种情况下，无论中国政府怎么做，它如果做的太软，会受到国内民族主义情绪对他的压力。它如果做的太强硬，它真的要跟越南打一仗的话，这场战争可能会引发更大的冲突。”
况且中国能不能赢得这场战争，也是一个疑问。夏明指出，中共在79年跟越南交战过程中死伤惨重。今天中共如果真跟越南打一仗的话，恐怕会给自己带来国内政治、经济危机的总爆发。
采访编辑/秦雪 后制/钟元
Communists Engage in Domestic Tension Diversion: Vietnam vs. China
After the violent anti-China demonstrations erupted in Vietnam,
in the military staff meeting between China and the United
States in the Pentagon, Washington warned Beijing’s
‘provocative’ use of military assets to resolve disputes.
Experts analyze that both Communist regimes have
engaged in targeting each other in order to divert the focus
away from
intensified domestic conflicts.
Communist China’s mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency
reported five Chinese vessels are scheduled to evacuate
Chinese nationals from Vietnam.
According to Department of Transportation, a ship has been
sent off from Hainan Province.
A chartered medical plane picked up the 16 critically
injured Chinese citizens on Sunday.
City University of New York Political Science Professor Xia
Ming explains that historically, China and Vietnam have
existed in a hostile relationship.
Vietnam had sought independence when an affiliated
state with China, and then as a colony of France, and finally
in the anti-American war.
Now as the largest trading partner of Vietnam, China has had
a great influence on Vietnam in politics, economy and culture.
Xia Ming: “The Vietnamese are very concerned about the close
tie with China, especially being a Communist country, and
the collapse of the country.
The Vietnamese nationalist sentiment has been the root of
conflict for a very long time.
This sentiment had caused the Battle of the Paracel Islands
in 1974 and the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979.
These have planted the seeds of hatred.
With the flooding in of Chinese goods, Vietnam is under
tremendous stress and impact."
Vietnam is also faced with social problems such as an economic
crisis and high unemployment rate as well as frictions with
massive Chinese investors and tourists.
The stationed oil drilling rig from China in the Paracel area
has further enhanced the unrest in Vietnam.
Xia Ming believes that both Japan and the US have affected
the anxiety of Vietnam. The domestic power struggle has
urged the Vietnamese to seek a balance between China,
the US and Russia.
Xia Ming: “It realized that close ties with China could lead to
the collapse of the nation. Getting too close to the US or Japan,
however, also threatens its Communist rule and ideology.
Vietnam is seeking a balance between maintaining its
Communist Party and its Communism, and strengthening its
rule with nationalism."
CNN reported that out in the South China Sea, neither side
appears to be showing any sign of backing down over the
territorial dispute that sparked the violence.
The Vietnam’s state-run news agency VNA accused China of
continuing to show “its aggressiveness by sending more military
ships" to the area around the oil rig.
Vietnam has demanded that China immediately withdraw
the rig from the disputed waters.
The Vietnam official was quoted as saying that China ships
were provoking the Vietnamese vessels by ramming them and
firing water cannons at them.
China, for its part, has continued to accuse Vietnamese ships
of similar acts, saying they are trying to disrupt the oil rig’s
drilling operation. It has declared a three-mile exclusion zone
around the rig, which is operated by the state-owned oil and
gas company CNOOC, said CNN.
At the meeting in the Pentagon, China’s PLA Chief of the
General Staff General Fang Fenghui claimed that China,
“In matters, issues that relate to sovereignty or territorial
integrity, our attitude has been firm."
While his counter presenter, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman
General Martin E. Dempsey responded, “We have to
acknowledge that there are disputes, territorial disputes that
are in play here", and “what exactly is the status quo and
who has been seeking to change it".
Xia Ming indicates that Communist China has played an
image of power since the 2008 Olympic Games, in foreign
policy, military and territory.
The violent anti-China protests in Vietnam have
embarrassed the regime.
Xia Ming: “If they can’t handle the situation in Vietnam,
it is equivalent to telling the Chinese that the CCP has been
bragging falsely in the past.
They have engaged in cruelty and violence against their own
people for years, but can not handle an overseas incident?
Nationalism is putting the Communist regime under
great pressure if they react weakly.
However, if they react too tough, the war could lead to
greater conflict."
Moreover, it is questionable if China will win the war.
Xia Ming indicates that the 1979 war had resulted in heavy
casualties to the Chinese.
Should the war really erupt with Vietnam, an outbreak of
political and economic crisis is inevitable.
Interview & Edit/Qin Xue Post-Production/Zhong Yuan
