【新唐人2012年3月21日讯】随着薄熙来的倒台，他所宣扬的所谓“重庆模式”是否还有市场？以汪洋为代表的“广东模式”是否能救得了中国？改革的路还有多远？中国将往何处去？这都是中国最近这场政治地震后，带来的余震回音，下面请看看，专家和学者们对这些问题的分析和探讨。
最近两天，中共中央政治局委员、广东省委书记汪洋公开强调，要保持政治上的清醒，严格按照党的原则和政策办事，同时他表明，广东经济社会建设取得的巨大成绩，是坚持改革开放的结果。
那么，这种在共产党领导下的改革开放，能解决中国的根本问题吗？
美国“乔治梅森大学”教授章天亮博士：“中共这种政治体制改革，它能改到什么程度，我觉得不能抱什么希望，除非胡温能下决心抛弃中共，因为共产党这个集团，它是个犯罪集团，如果要是中国实现转型的话，这些中共的官员都要送上法庭的，除非现行的中共领导人胡温抛弃中共了，这样的话，怎么改革的话，大家还是觉得比较有希望的。”
“中国社会民主党”中央委员会主持人刘因全认为，“重庆模式”是大倒退，但是在中共的体制内谈改革，是没有希望的。
刘因全：“广东模式目前做的这一步，还是救不了中国的，共产党要靠他自己改革很难，还是要靠党外人士，异议人士，包括宗教信仰人士，要不断的给共产党施加压力。”
不过美国“哥伦布亚大学”访问学者赵岩认为，把薄熙来下台当作中国“肃清左派”的终止，中国的改革就可前进一大步，这种认识过于乐观，他说，“两会”打着学习美国的幌子修改刑法，就是历史的倒退，并没有对异议人士留任何余地。
赵岩：“今年的两会，修正刑法第73条，这是历史倒退的一个‘恶法’，美国是真正面对恐怖主义分子的时候，他使用的这个条款，但是它不是在美国本土上使用，美国本土，你不管逮捕谁，都要及时的通知家属，大陆通过的这个刑法修正案，就完全是对着异议人士来的，也不用通过检察院批捕，就可以逮捕，逮捕到什么时候，都很难说，所以这个法律，它本身是一个倒退。”
章天亮还表示，胡温对薄熙来的处理，意味着胡温和江派已经摊牌，但江派还可能垂死反扑。他说从军委副主席郭伯雄最近的一篇文章可以看出，江泽民和周永康可能动用军队和武警来对抗胡温。
章天亮：“因为他通篇讲话，都没有讲中国对外的一些威胁，他都是讲十八要召开了，军队要听胡主席指挥，所以我想他也在暗示，江系人马周永康他们可能要反扑，会动用一些军队或者武警，在这个时候，胡温一定要牢牢的掌握军队，像中央警卫团、北京卫戌区，如果是这种情况的话，我们可以说薄熙来是彻底完蛋了。”
最近，左派的网站和唱红窝点遭到整肃，薄熙来的亲信也纷纷下马，广东《珠江晚报》在头条报导薄熙来失势的同时，以同样大小的字体在同等的位置，刊载一张压土机正在辗碎充公得来的假冒商品的照片，和“假货，你也有今天”的字样，很多人认为这是在讽刺薄熙来。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/孙宁
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Can the “Guangdong Model” save China?
With the fall of Bo Xilai, does the Chongqing Model that he promoted still have a market?
Can the “Guangdong Model” promoted by Wang Yang save China?
How long is the road to reform?
Where is China going in future?
These are questions raised after the recent political turmoil in China.
Below is analysis by scholars and experts in the area.
In the last two days, Wang Yang, member of the Political
Bureau central committee and Guangdong party secretary,
openly stressed the need to remain politically conscious
and strictly follow principles and policies.
He also expressed that Guangdong must continue to
achieve in economic and social developments in order to obtain the results of reform and opening up.
Then, can such reform and opening up under Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) rule resolve China’s fundamental issues?
George Mason University Professor Zhang Tianliang:
“I don’t have much hope for the reformation of the CCP political structure,
unless Hu and Wen can be determined to abandon the CCP.
Otherwise, under the CCP system, it is a criminal group.
If China implements a transformation, then these
CCP officials will all be sued in court,
unless the current CCP leaders Hu and Wen abandon the CCP;
then in this case, we will feel more hope about the issue reform.”
Chinese Social Democratic Party Central Committee member
Liu Yinquan believes the Chongqing Model is a big step backward,
and talking about reform within the CCP framework is hopeless.
Liu Yinquan, “What the Guangdong model has done
so far is not enough to save China.
The CCP trying to reform by itself is very difficult, it requires
non-party members, dissidents, including religious activists, to continue applying pressure.”
However, Columbia University visiting scholar Zhao Yan
believes that viewing the fall of Bo Xilai as a big step forward is too optimistic.
He expressed that when the Two Meetings (high level
internal meetings) members modified criminal law under the guise of learning from the US,
it was a step backward in history, and didn’t leave any
leeway for dissidents.
Zhao Yan, “This year’s Two Meetings members
modified criminal law article 73.
This is an ‘evil law’ and a step backward in history, the US
only use this article against terrorists, not within the U.S.
Within the US, relatives must be immediately notified
upon arrest of their family member.
Mainland China uses this criminal law modification to target
dissidents and to arrest without permission from the Procuratorate.
Length of detainment is unknown.
That’s why this law is a step backward.”
Zhang Tianliang also expressed that Hu and Wen’s treatment of
Bo Xilai means they are declaring war on the Jiang faction, but the Jiang faction will still try to counterattack.
From a recent article by military commission vice-chairman
Guo Boxiong shows that Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang might mobilize the military and armed police to fight Hu and Wen.
Zhang Tianliang, “because in his speech,
he didn’t mention external threats,
his words were all about how the military should follow
command of Hu during the 18th National Congress.
I think he is trying to hint that the Jiang faction and
Zhou Yongkang will try to counterattack,
and will mobilize some of the military and armed police,
so Hu and Wen must firmly control the military,
like the Central Guards Regiment and the Beijing guard district.
If this this happens, then Bo Xilai is completely over.”
Recently, left-wing websites and singing red songs centers
were purged, and many of Bo Xilai’s followers were fired.
Guangdong Zhujiang Nightly reported Bo Xilai’s losing office
as headline, and also showed footage of a bulldozer crushing counterfeit goods.
The slogan was “Fake: you also have a day like this.”
Many believe this is mocking Bo Xilai.
