【新唐人2013年04月27日讯】当今的中国，拉动经济的三驾马车已经停步，宏观调控也屡屡受挫。4月26号，中共中央政治局常务委员会召开会议，研究当前经济形势和经济工作。外界指出，中国现实的经济困局，挤压了宏观调控政策的空间，那么，在这次会议中强调的“释放内需潜力”，能不能成为中共走出困境的解药，请看专家分析。
中共中央政治局常务委员会召开的会议指出，中国经济运行仍面临一些困难和挑战，要继续实施财政政策和稳健的货币政策。
大陆经济学家茅于轼：“中国的问题都出在微观上，通过宏观调节解决不了问题。微观上的问题很大，土地不能自由买卖，人民币没有国际化，很多行业不允许进入，民间资本不能进入，这都是微观上的问题。还有粮食问题，搞那个18亿亩耕地‘红线’，这都是极其错误的政策。”
《路透社》北京时间4月25号发表了一篇题为“中国经济现实困局挤压宏观调控政策空间”的文章，其中指出，中国经济面临的困局与五年前的全球金融危机来袭时有点类似，只不过五年前还有4万亿元人民币的经济刺激计划，但眼下可供选择的政策空间却着实有限。
同时，30年来拉动中国经济的三驾马车，也被外界认定已经不再发挥作用。因此会议提出，要着力“释放内需潜力”。
茅于轼：“要增加GDP中间的消费比例，是个涉及面很广的问题，包括税务改革，包括国民大企业的改革，这些都不动的话，消费改善有限，按现在的格局，没有什么潜力了，改变政策才会有潜力，你要增加消费首先要增加收入啊，没有收入，他哪来的消费啊。”
会议还强调，抓好“房地产市场调控”和“住房保障”工作。
旅美经济学家简天伦博士认为，中国整个宏观经济策略完全错误，因为土地国有化，和中国房地产市场的不正常现象，致使房价“屡调屡涨”。
旅美经济学家简天伦：“政府现在财政最大的收入，是用卖地来赚钱，所以卖地就越卖越高，因为是国有的，如果土地私有的话也不会这样，这是一方面。另外一方面，现在拥有房子除了资金成本外，他占有房子、占有土地等等，这些并不需要交钱给政府。”
简天伦进一步指出，正因为这些原因，地方政府和开发商串通起来，在开发商得到价格便宜的土地时，用这些房子贿赂官员，造成一人拥有上百套房子的怪象，出现大量“鬼城”，“空城”。
简天伦还说，这些无偿得到房子的官员们，不会在乎20%的增值税。
简天伦：“那为什么最近中国推出了卖房20%收益要增税，不但房价没减还上涨了呢？需求超过供给，这样卖的人可以把成本转嫁到买房人身上去，这种中国的宏观经济的扭曲不会改变，而且贫富不均更造成房价的上涨，两个互相推动，房价上涨也使贫富不均加大。”
美国著名投资公司GMO发表的一份研究报告指出，为了应对全球金融危机和出口订单的崩溃，中国下令银行放贷。去年，新增的银行贷款相当于29％的GDP。这些贷款大部分流向基础设施、房地产、以及国有企业。这种经济刺激，会留下可拍的后遗症。
报告说，房地产的繁荣为腐败提供了巨大的机会。土地经常被夺走，交给开发商，而对被拆迁者补偿不足。金融部门沉迷于拿回扣。基础设施支出，让地方官员有机会中饱私囊，对劣质建材视而不见。
报告还指出，系统性腐败降低了中国经济增长质量，因此，造成金融体系脆弱，环境退化和敏感，执法强制腐坏而无效，基建不安全，公共卫生服务麻木不仁以及监管系统摇摇欲坠。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/钟元
Will Boosting Domestic Demand Help China?
In China today, the economic Troika has stopped working.
In addition, the macro-control has often been interrupted.
On April 25th, the Standing Committee held a meeting
to study the current economic situation and related tasks.
Observers point out, China’s current economic predicament
has tightened the space for macro-control policies.
Will their focus on “bringing out the potential of domestic
demand” become the cure for the economic plight?
It was pointed out during the Standing Committee meeting,
that China’s economy still faces difficulties and challenges.
Continuing implementation of fiscal policy
and prudent monetary policy is necessary.
Mao Yushi, Mainland economist : “China’s problems come
from the microeconomics, which cannot be resolved by macroeconomic adjustments. From microeconomic perspective, there are many issues,
such as the land cannot be freely traded;
RMB is not internationalized;
and many industries and private capital cannot enter.
Food supply and the limited 295 million acres
of arable land are all problems too. “
On April 25th, British Reuters published an article on China’s
economic realities predicament and macro-control policy.
It says, the dilemma China faces today
is similar to that of the global financial crisis five years ago.
With the exception that there were
4 trillion Yuan economic stimulus plan at that time.
At present, option policies are very limited. Observers think,
the economic Troika is no longer effective, after 30 years.
Thus, it was suggested in the meeting to focus on
“bringing out the potential of domestic demand.”
Mao Yushi: “Increasing GDP’s consumer spending share
has many issues, like tax’ and large state enterprises’ reform.
If they remain the same,
there will only be limited improvement in consumption.
Currently, only changing of policy
can result in increasing potentials.
To increase consumption, you must first increase income;
without an income, how can you boost consumption?”
The meeting also stressed on the good grasp of real estate
market regulation and housing market security.
Jian Tianlun, Chinese economist in the US, believes,
China’s macroeconomic policy is entirely wrong.
Due to the nationalization of land and the real estate
market irregularities, housing prices continue to rise.
Jian Tianlun:“The main revenue of local governments
comes from land-selling.
If private ownership of land was in place,
this would not happen.
Once having house and land, one does not need
to hand his money over to the government.”
Jian Tianlun further points out that for these very reasons,
officials have colluded with real estate developers.
Officials supply them with cheap land,
and in return are ‘rewarded’ with free housing units.
Thus, it is not uncommon for a person in China
to own more than 100 housing units.
Therefore, one can see “ghost towns” or “empty cities”
popping up here and there.
When these officials can obtain free housing units,
they don’t mind paying the 20% tax surcharge.
Jian Tianlun: “That’s why recently housing prices went up,
even with 20% surcharge of tax from selling a housing unit.
Simply put, the demand exceeds the supply,
and the owners can add the surcharge to the selling price.
The uneven distribution of wealth,
and the housing price’ increase are forming a vicious cycle;
the bigger the increase of house prices,
the bigger the gap between rich and poor.”
The well-known U.S. investment firm GMO
published a research report on China’s stimulus measures.
It says that in response to the global financial crisis,
and export orders collapse, China ordered the banks to lend.
Last year, new bank loans were equivalent to 29% of GDP.
Most of these loans flowed to the infrastructure, real estate, as well as state-owned enterprises.
This stimulus would lead to terrible aftermaths,
the research predicts.
The report also said that this real estate boom
offers great opportunities for corruption.
Land is often forcefully gained; developers underpay
owners of properties; officials are addicted to kickbacks.
As to infrastructure spending, local officials have many
opportunities to fill their pockets too, by turning a blind eye to the poor quality of building materials.
The report also noted that the systemic corruption
has lowered the quality of China’s economic growth.
That results in a fragile financial system,
environmental degradation, inadequate law enforcement,
unsafe infrastructure, unresponsive public health services,
and crumbling regulatory systems.
