【新唐人2013年03月25日讯】日前，有国际知名投行机构发布报告，指称中国正在显现金融危机前的三个特征，和之前西欧、日本和美国在爆发金融危机前，所展现的征兆如出一辙。这一危机将会导致财富由穷人向富人转移，扩大贫富差距。一起来听听经济学家的分析。
上周末，国际知名投行“野村证券”发布研究报告说，中国爆发金融危机的特征正在显现。野村经济学家张智威和陈家瑶表示，“杠杆化快速升高”、“潜在增速下滑”和“房价上升”，是中国经济正在显现的三个警灯，也是西欧、日本和美国在爆发金融危机前所展现的特征。
报告中引用国际上著名的“5-30规则”分析指出，中国的所谓“杠杆率”已经达到1978年有记录以来的最高水平，预示着金融风险已经降临。同时，中国出口份额下降，显示潜在增长率放缓。而快速的房价上涨则是最后的警告信号。
报告声称，目前地方政府融资平台、房地产开发商、信托公司和信用担保公司等机构，是这次潜在金融危机的重点雷区。由于这些机构之间的依存度很高，而且以房地产市场为中心环节，所以一旦房地产降温，连锁反应将导致危机随即爆发。
中国经济学家茅于轼在接受《德国之声》采访时表示，北京当局目前不能消化掉危机因素，尤其是房地产泡沫已经出现。但这个巨大的泡沫是中共政府和金融企业不愿意看到的，因此都在努力使它不破灭。中国金融危机的后果，就是中共出卖国有资产。
不过，美国“南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院”教授谢田则认为，当局不大可能以出卖国有资产，来应付金融危机。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授 谢田：“在中共的体制之下，这些国有银行和国有企业，是中共权贵用来掠取人民财产财富的一个最好的机器。中共不会轻易放弃这些国有资产，国有企业或银行的控制权。
谢田估计，中共会继续用发行大量钞票的方法来应对危机。
谢田：“可能继续发行钞票，继续制造通货膨胀。很可能已经把大面额的钞票早已经暗地准备好了。以继续牺牲中国老百姓的财富、利益的方式，来维持让国有银行不崩溃。
报告还说，中共当局一方面遏制银行业风险，一方面容忍所谓的“影子银行”繁荣，以帮助地方政府和房地产开发商解决资金困难。一旦房地产市场出现下调趋势，就会导致“影子银行”体系风险爆发。
而中国经济学家郎咸平，在近期举办的“2013年中国（龙岩）区域经济发展高峰论坛”上，也作出类似的论断，他说：“中国的金融危机开始爆发，而银行危机，包括以民间借贷为主的影子银行危机已经正式爆发。”
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利则认为，中国的银行业有它的特殊性，所以现在论断银行危机已经全面爆发还有待推敲。
中国金融智库研究员巩胜利：“中国的银行业没有放开，不像日本、美国和欧洲。银行的用钱、投资，政府是管制起来的。他基本上实行的是政府管制下的这种运作，所以他和西方特别是发达国家的那些银行自主权那么大、那么多，他存在很大的差异。”
不过，巩胜利也表示，中国经济照这种“国有垄断”的模式继续走下去，危险性无疑将会越来越明显。
野村的报告最后还指出，“影子银行”产品只向富人开放，所以只有富人才有机会从政府提供的隐形担保中获益。当企业遭遇困境，政府为他们兜底时，付出代价的则是全体人民。“影子银行”的繁荣和道德风险的加剧，最终将导致财富由穷人向富人的转移。
采访/刘惠 编辑/李明飞 后制/葛雷
Nomura: China Showing Signs of Approaching Financial Crisis
Recently, a global investment bank released a report.
The report says that China is displaying three
symptoms that Western Europe, Japan and the
US showed before the outbreak of financial crisis.
This crisis will lead to a shift of assets from the poor to
the rich, enlarging the gap between the rich and the poor.
Let’s take a look at the experts’ analysis.
Last weekend, Japan’s investment bank Nomura published
a report, saying China’s financial crisis signs are showing.
Nomura’s economists Zhang Zhiwei and
Chen Jiayao said that three signs of financial
crisis are a sharp rise of leverage, a slowdown
in economic growth and elevated house prices.
These signs are flashing over the Chinese economy.
This is the same as Western Europe, Japan and
the US, before their financial crisis took place.
The report used the “5-30 rule”, analyzing
that China’s so-called “leverage ratio” has
reached it’s highest level since 1978.
This indicates that China’s financial crisis is on its way.
Meanwhile, export shares are declining,
showing the growth rate is slowing down.
However, a rapid rise in house
prices is the last warning sign.
The report said that local government
financing vehicles, property developers, trust
and insurance companies could be badly hit.
These organs highly rely on each other.
They focus on property markets, when house prices drop,
the chain reaction will instantly cause the crisis to break out.
Chinese economist Mao Yushi spoke to Deutsche Welle.
The central government couldn’t remove these crises
factors, especially the real estate bubble is occurring.
The bubble is huge, and the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) and financial companies don’t want it happening.
Thus they are trying to avoid it from bursting.
The outcome of the Chinese financial crisis
is that the CCP sells state-owned assets.
Xie Tian, a Professor at the Aiken School of Business
at the University of South Carolina commented.
Xie believes that the CCP would be unlikely to sell
state-owned assets to cope with a financial crisis.
Xie Tian: “Within the CCP system, state-owned
banks and companies are the best machine to be
used by CCP to plunder property from the people.
The CCP won’t easily give up these
state-owned assets, companies or banks.”
Xie predicted that the CCP will continue to issue
large amounts of banknotes to deal with the crisis.
Xie Tian: “The CCP may continue to
issue banknotes and increase inflation.
They may have already prepared
such large banknotes quietly.
They will continue to plunder people’s property and
interests to avoid the collapse of state-owned banks.”
The report also said that on the one hand, the
Chinese regime is trying to curb the banking risk.
On the other hand, it is trying to
tolerate growing “shadow banking”.
This way, it seeks to help local governments and
property developers solve financial difficulties.
Once the house prices decline, it will lead a
“shadow banking” system crisis to break out.
Lang Xianping, a Chinese economist also
made a similar prediction in a recent forum.
Lang said: “China’s financial crisis has started to break out.
The banking crisis, including the shadow-banking crisis,
which is based on private borrowing, has taken place.”
Gong Shengli, China Financial Think Tank researcher
believes that the banking industry in China is unique.
Thus stating that a “banking crisis has
broken out” needs to be scrutinized.
Gong Shengli: “China’s banking industry isn’t independent,
and they aren’t the same as Japan, the U.S. and Europe.
Loans and investments are controlled by the CCP.
Basically, they are operated under government’s control.
In western countries, especially developed countries,
banks can make decisions, thus it is very different.”
Gong also said that if China’s economy continues to
be state-owned, the risks certainly will become obvious.
Nomura’s report points out in the end that
“shadow banking” only serves the rich people.
Thus, only rich people have the opportunity to gain
interests from insurance, provided by the government.
Once the companies face difficulty, the government
will protect them, but ordinary people will suffer.
“Shadow banking” prosperity and increased moral crisis will
eventually cause assets to be shifted from the poor to the rich.
